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  • #7,961
  • Nov 3, 2012 8:11am Nov 3, 2012 8:11am
Quoting stevewalker
used your pic. if you dont mind
correct is this

see HS formation with Aqua cricles
then it breaked Neckline
then it reversed with, which is well known as "Bear Trap"
Just curious in the method you used to depict your H&S circles. Why was my last shoulder wrong steve? Learning here since i am quite junior to forex.

and nahhh. I don't mind.
  • #7,962
  • Nov 3, 2012 8:35am Nov 3, 2012 8:35am
becouse
HS formation has done & broken the neck line.
everthing is in place.
the right Shoulder you indicated is another attemp to move up or filling the shorts to move dow.
which in our case second one happened.

Quoting huatjin
Just curious in the method you used to depict your H&S circles. Why was my last shoulder wrong steve? Learning here since i am quite junior to forex.

and nahhh. I don't mind.
  • #7,963
  • Nov 3, 2012 9:04am Nov 3, 2012 9:04am
Quoting stevewalker
used your pic. if you dont mind
correct is this

see HS formation with Aqua cricles
then it breaked Neckline
then it reversed with, which is well known as "Bear Trap"

Yeah, for short term guys it is a bear trap aka pin bar whatever is there but longer term we will see Sunday/ Monday.

BTW, Steve, what did you mean by hedging FX vs. stocks?
I never ever thought of hedging even among related FX pairs. How can you can you hedge FX with stocks?
  • #7,964
  • Nov 3, 2012 9:06am Nov 3, 2012 9:06am
Frankly I am interested to add one more last position if the train is really leaving south. Overall exposure of my 3 positions is about 1% risk now and I can keep it same even with 4 positions if PA is right.
  • #7,965
  • Nov 3, 2012 10:09am Nov 3, 2012 10:09am
how can we HEDGE our trades;
when I am trading EU, first, I should find a instrument that is MAX UNRlated with EU. at least it must not be a currency pair.
eg soybeans, scotcks or what ever it is.
here the logic is depending on trader capacity of trading.

we can trade 2 different unrlated instrument.
at that point due to tading instruments are unrlated they will not effect from each other atleast on min level.

if I am over average trader then it is not very possible to have both trade desecions wrong.

but on the other hand when one fails other can succeed and they hedge each other.

if they both wins then it is big goal.

so basicly hedging between currencies like USDCHF vs EURUSD means nothing.
just double our Costs.

Quoting shiko
Yeah, for short term guys it is a bear trap aka pin bar whatever is there but longer term we will see Sunday/ Monday.

BTW, Steve, what did you mean by hedging FX vs. stocks?
I never ever thought of hedging even among related FX pairs. How can you can you hedge FX with stocks?
  • #7,966
  • Nov 3, 2012 10:26am Nov 3, 2012 10:26am
Quoting stevewalker
how can we HEDGE our trades;
when I am trading EU, first, I should find a instrument that is MAX UNRlated with EU. at least it must not be a currency pair.
eg soybeans, scotcks or what ever it is.
here the logic is depending on trader capacity of trading.

we can trade 2 different unrlated instrument.
at that point due to tading instruments are unrlated they will not effect from each other atleast on min level.

if I am over average trader then it is not very possible to have both trade desecions wrong.

but on the other hand when one fails other...


I do not think it will actually hedge your bets. you would just add one more risk.
  • #7,967
  • Nov 3, 2012 10:32am Nov 3, 2012 10:32am
he he
actually it is not my invention.
hedge funds in generel uses this system

Quoting shiko
I do not think it will actually hedge your bets. you would just add one more risk.
  • #7,968
  • Nov 3, 2012 12:40pm Nov 3, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting stevewalker
he he
actually it is not my invention.
hedge funds in generel uses this system

but they do not hedge FX bets with stocks if I am not mistaken. Also, many of them went under or are losing money. Not all of them of course.
  • #7,969
  • Nov 3, 2012 1:26pm Nov 3, 2012 1:26pm
they hedge currency trades with stocks, sometimes yes. personally listen at Bloomberg. more then one hedge fund hedged their EURUSD trades with EU stocks

there can some other uncorolated instruments be found.

loosng money is another topic. there is always a possibility that both sides of hedge were played wrong!!!


Quoting shiko
but they do not hedge FX bets with stocks if I am not mistaken. Also, many of them went under or are losing money. Not all of them of course.
  • #7,970
  • Nov 3, 2012 1:54pm Nov 3, 2012 1:54pm
Hedge is in general has a missunderstanding by FX traders.

what Hedge funds do:
think that way.
If I have an airline company I would like make profit from ticket sales ( normally ) but I also dont want to loose money due to fuel costs.

So I go to hedge fund & hedge my fuel costs. means I fix my buying price of plane fuel. now in any condition
- when fuel price goes down
- when fuel price goes up
my fuel spending stay same. & I make money from ticket sales.
& I pay a comission for that to the hedge fund

NOW;
the risk is on hedge fund
Hedge fund should hedge the fuel cost if it goes up then the contract price signed with the airline company.

so they hedge it with other uncorolated instrumetns. this part of operation has nothing to do with airline company.

but in FX MKT traders using hedging a trade with other. in reality hedge means
- NO PROFİT
- NO LOSS

so it has nothing to do with trading.


Quoting stevewalker
they hedge currency trades with stocks, sometimes yes. personally listen at Bloomberg. more then one hedge fund hedged their EURUSD trades with EU stocks

there can some other uncorolated instruments be found.

loosng money is another topic. there is always a possibility that both sides of hedge were played wrong!!!
  • #7,971
  • Nov 3, 2012 3:41pm Nov 3, 2012 3:41pm
Quoting stevewalker
Hedge is in general has a missunderstanding by FX traders.

what Hedge funds do:
think that way.
If I have an airline company I would like make profit from ticket sales ( normally ) but I also dont want to loose money due to fuel costs.

So I go to hedge fund & hedge my fuel costs. means I fix my buying price of plane fuel. now in any condition
- when fuel price goes down
- when fuel price goes up
my fuel spending stay same. & I make money from ticket sales.
& I pay a comission for that to the hedge fund

NOW;
the risk...
well explained. As for trading, the phrase Hedging is used to express that you try to diversify, not lower your overall risk while trading non-correlating instruments, be it fx-pairs which don't behave similar to your original pair or stocks, gold, real estate or whatever.

If you use that "type" of hedging on stocks for example, it is common that, if you buy a stock, you will go and search for another stock which inerts a valid selling signal.
The thinking behind is actually that, if the overall market situation stays static (which can mean a constant but slow growth as well) you have the chance to win on both trades. If market for any reason crashes or rushes up (both is possible as we all know) the single stocks tend to follow that movement quite tightly. Either way you still have one winner in your portfolio, wherefore your overall risk is reduced by diversifying your investment.

Have seen an interesting interview about that once, couldn't find it unfortunately..
  • #7,972
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:13pm Nov 3, 2012 4:13pm
yes.
hedging a stock with another stock is possible.
due a stock you buy can be in Heavy industy bussines & other you short/long can be in food industry. totaly different.

but with different currencies it is not logic.

all currencises is more or less are derivatives of EURUSD.

Quoting luckyl
well explained. As for trading, the phrase Hedging is used to express that you try to diversify, not lower your overall risk while trading non-correlating instruments, be it fx-pairs which don't behave similar to your original pair or stocks, gold, real estate or whatever.

If you use that "type" of hedging on stocks for example, it is common that, if you buy a stock, you will go and search for another stock which inerts a valid selling signal.
The thinking behind is actually that, if the overall market situation stays static (which...
  • #7,973
  • Nov 3, 2012 8:41pm Nov 3, 2012 8:41pm
I will explain my type of hedging

IF I see jpy loosing power to eur and to usd, I will long eur/usd and long usd/jpy


therefore if I loose on eur/usd I will still make up with long vs jpy

and If i'm right double the winnings

If jpy continues to loosing power the scenario of gains is this

BE
Double profit
  • #7,974
  • Nov 3, 2012 9:51pm Nov 3, 2012 9:51pm
With the breach of the 2 months support, looks like EURUSD 1.35 will have to wait a bit longer as S/T focus now shifted down to the 1.2900~1.2700 traverse zone..

GBPUSD daily Sell Fractal after another failed test at the 2 month TL.. S/T bias for another probe down to the 1.5950~1.5850 support zone..

EURGBP backing off from .8150 after another rejection.. looking for .79 again..

EURJPY 3rd rejection from weekly TL.. pausing above 103 defying gravity with USDJPY having another go at the L/T TL, another rejection & break below 80 again will be troublesome for EURJPY & EURUSD bulls..

GBPUSD + EURGBP + EURJPY, side to down PA = EURUSD in trouble..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro D1+H4 capture-20121103-004733.png Size: 107 KB



Dollar Index vs EURUSD
The USD Index & EURUSD converging at M/T cross road again from diametrically opposite ends..
Scenario 1:
USD Index & EURUSD cross & continue on their merry ways..
ie. Euro ---> 1.27~1.25 continue ---> 1.20
Scenario 2:
USD Index & EURUSD cross, over-shot then reverse..
ie. Euro ---> 1.27~1.25 reverse ---> 1.35

Both scenario offers very good betting odds for muti-figure follow through PA..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU DX capture-20121103-065930.png Size: 82 KB
  • #7,975
  • Nov 4, 2012 7:06am Nov 4, 2012 7:06am
& if you are wrong you double the loss.

buy eurusd
buy euro
sell usd

buy usdjpy
buy usd
sell jpy

buy euro x 1
buy/sell usd neutral
sell jpy x 1

when you use same lt size in reality your action is

buy eurjpy with paying double cost

not logic


Quoting Farrusco
I will explain my type of hedging

IF I see jpy loosing power to eur and to usd, I will long eur/usd and long usd/jpy


therefore if I loose on eur/usd I will still make up with long vs jpy

and If i'm right double the winnings

If jpy continues to loosing power the scenario of gains is this

BE
Double profit
  • #7,976
  • Nov 4, 2012 7:10am Nov 4, 2012 7:10am
just making it as complicated as possible to be not calculated easly by your brain.
this makes you feel better.

you are just paying extra cost & you make your broker happy.

Quoting cdndollar
With the breach of the 2 months support, looks like EURUSD 1.35 will have to wait a bit longer as S/T focus now shifted down to the 1.2900~1.2700 traverse zone..

GBPUSD daily Sell Fractal after another failed test at the 2 month TL.. S/T bias for another probe down to the 1.5950~1.5850 support zone..

EURGBP backing off from .8150 after another rejection.. looking for .79 again..

EURJPY 3rd rejection from weekly TL.. pausing above 103 defying gravity with USDJPY having another go at the L/T TL, another rejection & break below 80 again...
  • #7,977
  • Nov 4, 2012 7:10am Nov 4, 2012 7:10am
what if your green & yellow arrows reverse after some pips & goes against you?

Quoting cdndollar
With the breach of the 2 months support, looks like EURUSD 1.35 will have to wait a bit longer as S/T focus now shifted down to the 1.2900~1.2700 traverse zone..

GBPUSD daily Sell Fractal after another failed test at the 2 month TL.. S/T bias for another probe down to the 1.5950~1.5850 support zone..

EURGBP backing off from .8150 after another rejection.. looking for .79 again..

EURJPY 3rd rejection from weekly TL.. pausing above 103 defying gravity with USDJPY having another go at the L/T TL, another rejection & break below 80 again...
  • #7,978
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:09am Nov 4, 2012 8:09am
I'll be checking the charts laterrr too before the market opens, to get on top of the market this week! =] . I wanna make at least 4% again xD

Just posting to say this forum and this Threat iis A-W-E-S-O-M-E . And the people on it too.

I'll try to colaborate with my best opinions, and hopefully will be good.


Good trading week everybody. Let's make some pips!
  • #7,979
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:10am Nov 4, 2012 8:10am
the actual NKT price is only 3 pip higher then close price.
it seems, we will opne with no gap.
  • #7,980
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:11am Nov 4, 2012 8:11am
wellcome


Quoting IvanNC
I'll be checking the charts laterrr too before the market opens, to get on top of the market this week! =] . I wanna make at least 4% again xD

Just posting to say this forum and this Threat iis A-W-E-S-O-M-E . And the people on it too.

I'll try to colaborate with my best opinions, and hopefully will be good.


Good trading week everybody. Let's make some pips!
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