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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #12,581
  • Nov 3, 2012 5:09am Nov 3, 2012 5:09am
Quoting emmanuel7788
those black arrows?
do you see the Prev D Open being support then ....
what did the price do with that?
It's showing the previous days open holding as support until later in the day it breaks in the form of a BPC and now the previous days open becomes resistance..

but what about the sticky note questions?
  • #12,582
  • Nov 3, 2012 5:11am Nov 3, 2012 5:11am
Quoting Ramjet
Woooow!!...I just love the compounding effect!!

I love compounding too ... but what is your win rate?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WinRate 75pct.png Size: 21 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #12,583
  • Nov 3, 2012 5:12am Nov 3, 2012 5:12am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Good attempt.
Not wrong though.

But my answer will surprise many,...except X-Man....LOL.

Let's wait for more members to do this weekend exercise.
LOL thats true.
I see this everyday thanks to you .
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #12,584
  • Nov 3, 2012 5:12am Nov 3, 2012 5:12am
Quoting X-Man
LOL thats true.
I see this everyday thanks to you .
X-Man gimme the answer!!
  • #12,585
  • Nov 3, 2012 5:14am Nov 3, 2012 5:14am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

watch this video from the man himself.... one of my mentors.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFuF6M7z1jg

regards,
Very thanks Emmanuel!
  • #12,586
  • Nov 3, 2012 5:18am Nov 3, 2012 5:18am
Quoting emmanuel7788
I love compounding too ... but what is your win rate?
pretty high I would say as we're dealing with short term smaller profit targets..
  • #12,587
  • Nov 3, 2012 5:33am Nov 3, 2012 5:33am
First, I would like to thank Arjun and all the other great traders who contribute to this amazing thread. I am on my second read of this thread.

Here is my reply to Emmanuel's weekend exercise. In Emmanuel's chart the top pink line is the low of yesterday. Price broke that level and moved lower and then started to retrace so we draw our fibo levels. Middle pink line is the 50 fibo level and the bottom pink line is the where the retracement began. After a down move, price retraced to 50 fibo level and couldn't continue up and got rejected so it is highly likely of a continued down move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart pic 1.gif Size: 23 KB
Trading can't be taught but it can be learned
  • #12,588
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:25am Nov 3, 2012 6:25am
Quoting Ramjet
pretty high I would say as we're dealing with short term smaller profit targets..
you mean too high win rate 75%?

how about 55% win rate?
same start with S$10,000
R-10pips
Min win 1R
Max Win 2.5R

see the Expectancy*
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WinRate 55pct.png Size: 24 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #12,589
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:27am Nov 3, 2012 6:27am
Quoting Pipsninja
First, I would like to thank Arjun and all the other great traders who contribute to this amazing thread. I am on my second read of this thread.

Here is my reply to Emmanuel's weekend exercise. In Emmanuel's chart the top pink line is the low of yesterday. Price broke that level and moved lower and then started to retrace so we draw our fibo levels. Middle pink line is the 50 fibo level and the bottom pink line is the where the retracement began. After a down move, price retraced to 50 fibo level and couldn't continue up and got rejected so it...

use of Fibo is good, but I only draw fib at the start of D.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #12,590
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:31am Nov 3, 2012 6:31am
Quoting jdva
looks like AJ is going to breakout of range after several closes above ema10 on D1 TF, I'm long......
let's watch if AJ is able to hold this level now...


Attachment
As suspected AJ just looked above the range and retraced at once, because the stop hunters are always there...
I dont enter a market on a breakout of important S/R zones immediately any longer, especially not intraday when swingtrading, no matter what TF...
using this method I've ruined inter alia a 5-digit account in my former trading "career"...sometimes it may work but very often it doesnt...
instead I prefer our mentors method to enter on retracement after the breakout/breakthrough has been confirmed by closing price on daily TF for swing trades, or also applicable on lower TFs for intraday trades...
in the above AJ case I entered some days ago at 82.538 in anticipation of a BO, PPA/PA and CS pattern recognition told me that a BO should occur in future, admittedly a more risky entry strategy...
therefore I trade then smaller lot size and bigger stops with the possibility of scaling in later on...a method surely not suitable for everyone...
moreover I always remember me and others that we are only dealing with probabilities of about 65% on trading, thus MM and RM are absolutely necessary (btw..thx for the xls-sheet)...
this lesson I've learned from my account collapse in former times, at least that was somewhat helpful for me coz successful now, but far better is avoiding such an event!

Nice weekend to you all, jdva
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #12,591
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:35am Nov 3, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Ramjet
X-Man gimme the answer!!

Please wait for more members to do this exercise.
Must give everyone time to learn this.
I believe in this ancient wisdom:

I hear and I forget.
I see and I remember.
I do and I understand.
- Confucius (551 BC - 479 BC)
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #12,592
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:38am Nov 3, 2012 6:38am
Quoting emmanuel7788
you mean too high win rate 75%?

how about 55% win rate?
same start with S$10,000
R-10pips
Min win 1R
Max Win 2.5R

see the Expectancy*
wooow!!...big difference in return....

With a 75% win rate wouldn't we expect that on a short term trade..

Going on the chart you've shown a 55% win rate on what looks like a short term trading system which isn't as effective as the first system.....unless we were looking at a longer term hold with lots of small losses and big wins..

ooops!.. sorry, I think your just showing us a difference in return between a 75% win rate and 55% win rate..
  • #12,593
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:41am Nov 3, 2012 6:41am
Quoting Ramjet
It's showing the previous days open holding as support until later in the day it breaks in the form of a BPC and now the previous days open becomes resistance..

but what about the sticky note questions?
Sorry Emmanuel was the sticky note questions for everyone..if not could you please explain?
  • #12,594
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:46am Nov 3, 2012 6:46am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Your weekend exercise on EURUSD:
_________________

hello emmanuel,

maybe these lines are the prev. 4h candle O/C or OHLC that become supp/resistance on LTF. same as you described in the previous post (but with d candles). because price is relative to other TF(maybe a little bit like einstein theory) it is possible to adabt this to 15min or 5min or even 1tick charts?(not tick, iam just joking). In a trend when a new timephase begins, price tend to test_break_retest...
i am at my girlfriends flat looking on a small 10" netbook without MT4 on it so i cant check it really. i am trying not to be shy and wrote what i thought when i saw your chart....

have a nice weekend
greetings

(i hope that my thoughts are not totally weirdo....i am eager to learn)
  • #12,595
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:48am Nov 3, 2012 6:48am
Quoting Ramjet
wooow!!...big difference in return....

With a 75% win rate wouldn't we expect that on a short term trade..

Going on the chart you've shown a 55% win rate on what looks like a short term trading system which isn't as effective as the first system.....unless we were looking at a longer term hold with lots of small losses and big wins..

ooops!.. sorry, I think your just showing us a difference in return between a 75% win rate and 55% win rate..
no, it is the same system traded over the same period with 100 trades, same capital, same small SL 10pips, same min win of R and max win of 2.5R.
the differentiation here is the win rate.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #12,596
  • Nov 3, 2012 6:51am Nov 3, 2012 6:51am
Quoting leztuh
_________________

hello emmanuel,

maybe these lines are the prev. 4h candle O/C or OHLC that become supp/resistance on LTF. same as you described in the previous post (but with d candles). because price is relative to other TF(maybe a little bit like einstein theory) it is possible to adabt this to 15min or 5min or even 1tick charts?(not tick, iam just joking). In a trend when a new timephase begins, price tend to test_break_retest...
i am at my girlfriends flat looking on a small 10" netbook without MT4 on it so i cant check it really. i am...
good try!
small netbook screen you don't see much details.
switch that off and spend time with your girlfriend instead...it will be more worth it than doing my exercise.

Have a Good Time.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #12,597
  • Nov 3, 2012 7:00am Nov 3, 2012 7:00am
thank you sir,

you are right!
i wish every FFmember a nice weekend..

good bye
  • #12,598
  • Nov 3, 2012 7:17am Nov 3, 2012 7:17am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Your weekend exercise on EURUSD:
Level's showing price waves..
  • #12,599
  • Nov 3, 2012 7:26am Nov 3, 2012 7:26am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Your weekend exercise on EURUSD:
The top is the 4h 200 ema, or the 1h 800, acting as support.

The middle one is the monthy 10 ema, also at a round number.

I'm not sure about the bottom one except it is a daily pivot. They all line up with monthly or daily pivots. :nerd:
Attached Image
  • #12,600
  • Nov 3, 2012 8:51am Nov 3, 2012 8:51am
Quoting jmag
The top is the 4h 200 ema, or the 1h 800, acting as support.

The middle one is the monthy 10 ema, also at a round number.

I'm not sure about the bottom one except it is a daily pivot. They all line up with monthly or daily pivots. :nerd:
Support and resistance zones. Keep it simple.
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