Update to July 2020: 61 out of 64 profitable months in a managed account
Here is the performance for 2019 and 2020 (thus far). The volatility caused by Covid-19 affected his results adversely, and he stopped trading for 3 months.
The probability against achieving 61 winning months out of 64, assuming a 50% win/loss probability per month is approx 443,000,000,000,000 to 1.
The probability against achieving 61 winning months out of 64, assuming a 45% win probability (to allow for broker costs) is approx 205,678,000,000,000,000 to 1.
(For anybody that's interested, the binomial distribution formula used to calculate these probabilities can be found here. This post might also be of interest).
Please note: The fund is private, and the manager wishes to remain anonymous. The only reason I posted this was to demonstrate that profitable trading is not merely the result of blind luck.
To any skeptics, I understand the probable reasons for your concerns. However, I'm not going to defend my position other than to say that it's my money that's at risk and I'm satisfied that the statements are bona fide. If I didn't know the trader and his partner personally, and understand their approach, I'd probably think the results were too good to be true.
Managed account -- performance for 2019: 
Managed account -- performance for 2020 (the year at the top is apparently a typo): 
For performance in prior years, and further explanation, see below.........
49 out of 49 profitable months in a managed account !
As I have mentioned before, I have entrusted a small part of my investment portfolio to a forex fund manager.
I deposited GBP 4,994 in November 2014. Now, 49 months later, the account balance now stands at GBP 9,251. Attached screenshots represent 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 performance, respectively (he didn't trade during December).
He charges a 50% management fee on monthly profits above the high watermark. Before fees, then, it works out at ~125% return over the first 38 months. Annualized, that's ~37% p.a. return. Unfortunately I don't have any worst case drawdown stats.
However, for me the impressive part is his consistency. There is not a single losing month in the 49 months.
If, for example, we were to assign a 50/50 probability to a winning/losing month, then the probability of 49 consecutive winning months = 1/(0.5^49) = 1 chance in 562,949,953,421,312.
If we assume a 45% probability of a winning month (to allow for costs) then the probability of attaining 49 consecutive winning months = 1/(0.45^49) = 1 chance in 98,307,539,172,364,071. (that's the same odds as winning New Zealand's Powerball lottery every week for 2,561,172,661 weeks in a row!!).
Hopefully this will give the naysayers -- those who insist that profitable FX is nothing more than luck -- something to ponder.
In case anybody's wondering, it's not a martingale. He uses hard stoplosses, and risks a consistent amount (no more than 1% of equity) per trade. In other words, proper 'textbook' risk management. As far as I know, he's been trading for around 17 years, and trades intraday using TA-based entries and properly tested statistics. I'm one of his smallest clients; he makes millions in commissions annually. It is a private fund; I won't publish his name without his permission.
2014 Performance 
2015 performance 
2016 performance 
2017 performance 
2018 Performance 
I'm not offended at all. Please feel welcome to ask any questions that you wish, and I'll do my best to answer them.
The 5K investment was just an experiment, an unplanned opportunity that just came along. A couple of UK-based traders approached me to perform some IT-related work for them, and it happened that one of them also actively trades a fund for (as far as I know) a few wealthy business acquaintances. This is a private arrangement, and he is not seeking any publicity. I respect his wishes and will not mention his name here. And moreover, there's no way I'd want to be exploited and humiliated by being used as a marketing tool.
I didn't perform any formal due diligence, other than establishing that he is accredited, and regulated by the FCA. The work I did necessitated some lengthy skype sessions, during which I got to know them personally and satisfied myself as to how they operate. Their approach would have to be one of the most solid that I've encountered in my 11 years in FX. I don't wish to disclose personal financial details on a public forum, but 5K is not a huge sum to me, and if it turns out that I've somehow misjudged either their competence or their integrity, then it's not a life-changing loss.
I'm sure if I asked for more frequent updates, they'd happily oblige. But a few pounds return each month is not that significant to me; if you knew me personally, you'd understand why. Nonetheless, if it's important to you that I update the results here more frequently, let me know, and I'll ask him.
As we all know, there are a lot of skeptics and naysayers in the forex industry, and possibly with good reason. Hence I believe a record of 49 consecutive winning months is extremely noteworthy, and so I decided to comment on it, to try to put the record straight: that consistently profitable retail trading is actually possible. If naysayers choose to discount the income statements that I published for whatever reason, I fully understand, but at the end of the day it's my money and I'm satisfied that what's being presented to me is bona fide, for the reasons I gave earlier. I'm not trying to prove anything too strenuously here, just passing on some information: take it or leave it, for whatever it's worth.
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Another millionaire forex trader
The first screenshot below is a Pepperstone account of another millionaire trader, whom I chatted with on Skype back in 2015, and took a screenshot of his MT4 window without his consent. Hence I've blacked out three areas for privacy reasons -- rest assured that's the only editing that's been done -- and I won't be publishing his name.
[And just for the skeptics, it's NOT a demo account: compare it to the second screenshot, which is one of my demo accounts, and you can see how Pepperstone places the words 'Demo Account' in the window title.]
And anyway, he's a friend of one of my old trading buddies, and I happen to know that he's a very proficient trader who's been profitable for several years.
So yes, there are also millionaire forex traders, some of whom even use MT4 !!
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The profitable traders who are also educators
Referring to this post:
#1. He is the author of threads like this and this.
#2. I respect his wish to remain anonymous. But he is the account manager who has had 38 consecutive profitable months (see above).
[EDIT] The system he was using (at least when he last explained it to me) involved charts with different size range bars (which aren't native to MT4), Guppy MMAs, an ADR-based 'room to move' indicator, and also buy/sell arrows generated by a proprietary indicator that is the result of a lot of statistical testing. There's also a significant amount of statistics (average/biggest favorable/adverse move lengths, etc) with the exits. If I recall correctly, he uses very conventional MM, setting stoplosses at less than 1% VAR per position. In other words, pure TA, textbook MM, no magic, no sleight of hand.
[EDIT] When I congratulated him on his remarkable consistency, his typically humble reply was "it's not difficult to make a profit every month if you are patient and wait for the correct setup..... my trades don't happen that often but when they do the direction is normally correct."
#3. I posted about my experience with him here.
#4. I think the less people that know about this trader, the better. But if you check out my posts in the commercial section around Aug/Sep 2017, you'll find a thread with plenty of info on how to contact him.
#5. Forgot to mention: another successful trader is Tom Dante. Tom traded in prop for 3-4 years and nowadays trades his own account; he's been profitable for several years. I've viewed maybe 15-20 of his webinars. I really enjoy his no nonsense approach (and also his sense of humor -- be warned, he uses some bad language!). If I understand him correctly, Tom enters trades off key S/R zones and swing failure patterns, (especially) anticipating possible corrections that occur outside the ADR. His video here is a classic IMHO.
__________________________________________________________________________
Here is the performance for 2019 and 2020 (thus far). The volatility caused by Covid-19 affected his results adversely, and he stopped trading for 3 months.
The probability against achieving 61 winning months out of 64, assuming a 50% win/loss probability per month is approx 443,000,000,000,000 to 1.
The probability against achieving 61 winning months out of 64, assuming a 45% win probability (to allow for broker costs) is approx 205,678,000,000,000,000 to 1.
(For anybody that's interested, the binomial distribution formula used to calculate these probabilities can be found here. This post might also be of interest).
Please note: The fund is private, and the manager wishes to remain anonymous. The only reason I posted this was to demonstrate that profitable trading is not merely the result of blind luck.
To any skeptics, I understand the probable reasons for your concerns. However, I'm not going to defend my position other than to say that it's my money that's at risk and I'm satisfied that the statements are bona fide. If I didn't know the trader and his partner personally, and understand their approach, I'd probably think the results were too good to be true.
Managed account -- performance for 2019:
Managed account -- performance for 2020 (the year at the top is apparently a typo):
For performance in prior years, and further explanation, see below.........
49 out of 49 profitable months in a managed account !
As I have mentioned before, I have entrusted a small part of my investment portfolio to a forex fund manager.
I deposited GBP 4,994 in November 2014. Now, 49 months later, the account balance now stands at GBP 9,251. Attached screenshots represent 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 performance, respectively (he didn't trade during December).
He charges a 50% management fee on monthly profits above the high watermark. Before fees, then, it works out at ~125% return over the first 38 months. Annualized, that's ~37% p.a. return. Unfortunately I don't have any worst case drawdown stats.
However, for me the impressive part is his consistency. There is not a single losing month in the 49 months.
If, for example, we were to assign a 50/50 probability to a winning/losing month, then the probability of 49 consecutive winning months = 1/(0.5^49) = 1 chance in 562,949,953,421,312.
If we assume a 45% probability of a winning month (to allow for costs) then the probability of attaining 49 consecutive winning months = 1/(0.45^49) = 1 chance in 98,307,539,172,364,071. (that's the same odds as winning New Zealand's Powerball lottery every week for 2,561,172,661 weeks in a row!!).
Hopefully this will give the naysayers -- those who insist that profitable FX is nothing more than luck -- something to ponder.
In case anybody's wondering, it's not a martingale. He uses hard stoplosses, and risks a consistent amount (no more than 1% of equity) per trade. In other words, proper 'textbook' risk management. As far as I know, he's been trading for around 17 years, and trades intraday using TA-based entries and properly tested statistics. I'm one of his smallest clients; he makes millions in commissions annually. It is a private fund; I won't publish his name without his permission.
2014 Performance
2015 performance
2016 performance
2017 performance
2018 Performance
interesting angle......
please don't take this as an offence, but.....
The 5K investment was just an experiment, an unplanned opportunity that just came along. A couple of UK-based traders approached me to perform some IT-related work for them, and it happened that one of them also actively trades a fund for (as far as I know) a few wealthy business acquaintances. This is a private arrangement, and he is not seeking any publicity. I respect his wishes and will not mention his name here. And moreover, there's no way I'd want to be exploited and humiliated by being used as a marketing tool.
I didn't perform any formal due diligence, other than establishing that he is accredited, and regulated by the FCA. The work I did necessitated some lengthy skype sessions, during which I got to know them personally and satisfied myself as to how they operate. Their approach would have to be one of the most solid that I've encountered in my 11 years in FX. I don't wish to disclose personal financial details on a public forum, but 5K is not a huge sum to me, and if it turns out that I've somehow misjudged either their competence or their integrity, then it's not a life-changing loss.
I'm sure if I asked for more frequent updates, they'd happily oblige. But a few pounds return each month is not that significant to me; if you knew me personally, you'd understand why. Nonetheless, if it's important to you that I update the results here more frequently, let me know, and I'll ask him.
As we all know, there are a lot of skeptics and naysayers in the forex industry, and possibly with good reason. Hence I believe a record of 49 consecutive winning months is extremely noteworthy, and so I decided to comment on it, to try to put the record straight: that consistently profitable retail trading is actually possible. If naysayers choose to discount the income statements that I published for whatever reason, I fully understand, but at the end of the day it's my money and I'm satisfied that what's being presented to me is bona fide, for the reasons I gave earlier. I'm not trying to prove anything too strenuously here, just passing on some information: take it or leave it, for whatever it's worth.
__________________________________________________________________________
Another millionaire forex trader
The first screenshot below is a Pepperstone account of another millionaire trader, whom I chatted with on Skype back in 2015, and took a screenshot of his MT4 window without his consent. Hence I've blacked out three areas for privacy reasons -- rest assured that's the only editing that's been done -- and I won't be publishing his name.
[And just for the skeptics, it's NOT a demo account: compare it to the second screenshot, which is one of my demo accounts, and you can see how Pepperstone places the words 'Demo Account' in the window title.]
And anyway, he's a friend of one of my old trading buddies, and I happen to know that he's a very proficient trader who's been profitable for several years.
So yes, there are also millionaire forex traders, some of whom even use MT4 !!
__________________________________________________________________________
The profitable traders who are also educators
Referring to this post:
I won't post any names, as it's against forum rules to recommend vendors outside of the commercial section.
For example, I know one FF member who 'went commercial' 1-2 years ago. He's an outstanding trader who used to post occasional gems here.....
There's another trader who also occasionally posts on FF. He and his business partner trade a predominantly TA-based system, which uses a mix of conventional and proprietary indicators for their setups/entries.....
[EDIT] The system he was using (at least when he last explained it to me) involved charts with different size range bars (which aren't native to MT4), Guppy MMAs, an ADR-based 'room to move' indicator, and also buy/sell arrows generated by a proprietary indicator that is the result of a lot of statistical testing. There's also a significant amount of statistics (average/biggest favorable/adverse move lengths, etc) with the exits. If I recall correctly, he uses very conventional MM, setting stoplosses at less than 1% VAR per position. In other words, pure TA, textbook MM, no magic, no sleight of hand.
[EDIT] When I congratulated him on his remarkable consistency, his typically humble reply was "it's not difficult to make a profit every month if you are patient and wait for the correct setup..... my trades don't happen that often but when they do the direction is normally correct."
Outside of FF, I was a student of another fundamental trader and money manager for 2 years, and I learned enough about FA to get value for my subscription.....
The trader mentioned by ezmonyfx is outstanding. Coincidentally I discovered him only a short while ago.....
#5. Forgot to mention: another successful trader is Tom Dante. Tom traded in prop for 3-4 years and nowadays trades his own account; he's been profitable for several years. I've viewed maybe 15-20 of his webinars. I really enjoy his no nonsense approach (and also his sense of humor -- be warned, he uses some bad language!). If I understand him correctly, Tom enters trades off key S/R zones and swing failure patterns, (especially) anticipating possible corrections that occur outside the ADR. His video here is a classic IMHO.
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