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How do forex traders predict price?

  • #41
  • Oct 26, 2012 9:50am Oct 26, 2012 9:50am
Probably now would be a good time to tighten stops to, say 25 pips and wait for an opportunity to add to the trade (off a pull back). No targets set for this trade yet, could be days.
Gone to a better place
  • #42
  • Oct 26, 2012 10:42am Oct 26, 2012 10:42am
Here is a chart showing an up to date position. Don't forget we are using the hourly chart to get into a daily position, and hope to follow the price down the channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf121026h1res.gif Size: 23 KB



The yellow box is to highlight the consolidation area. This area should now act as good resistance, almost like a wall. If the price drifts up through here we should think about closing even if it would be a small loss, but it's unlikely, especially as there are no red news releases in the near distance.

So that's how traders predict price. This might be a loser or it might be a winner. I would be looking for at least a 50, more like 200+ pip move. That part of the trade is not yet planned. Why? If you ask, I'll continue to post. If not, thanks for watching.
Gone to a better place
  • #43
  • Oct 27, 2012 3:50am Oct 27, 2012 3:50am
Quoting smikester
Here is a chart showing an up to date position. Don't forget we are using the hourly chart to get into a daily position, and hope to follow the price down the channel.

Attachment


The yellow box is to highlight the consolidation area. This area should now act as good resistance, almost like a wall. If the price drifts up through here we should think about closing even if it would be a small loss, but it's unlikely, especially as there are no red news releases in the near distance.

So that's how traders predict price. This might...
The Chonchy
  • #44
  • Oct 29, 2012 3:57am Oct 29, 2012 3:57am
I closed the above set up. Right or wrong? I don't know. In Forex the game is all about keeping your capital, and so if a move does not happen, then it is as well to close a set up. The reason for closing is the candle for last week, which is bullish engulfing. So, although my sentiment remains biased to the downside, there is a danger of drawdown.

This can be one of the most confusing and frustrating thinga about trading. If the set up plays out, now, without a hiccup, then psychologically we may feel as though we have failed.

We have to remember, a loser cut short, or a break even trade, or a missed trade are never failures.

Weekly chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf121029w1.gif Size: 25 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #45
  • Oct 30, 2012 4:41am Oct 30, 2012 4:41am
Quoting mm2mm
How to know when to enter long or short? I don't know how to predict price and always betting.

Thank you
Traders don't predict the price. The price is created by market.
  • #46
  • Oct 30, 2012 7:56pm Oct 30, 2012 7:56pm
Quoting mm2mm
How to know when to enter long or short? I don't know how to predict price and always betting.

Thank you
I use a magic tea cup with Himalayan tea leaves to decide on buying or selling.
The best indicator is price.
  • #47
  • Oct 31, 2012 1:33am Oct 31, 2012 1:33am
I've been using 50% (fib) retracement targets, for retracement waves, to great effect recently.

They're easy to eyeball on the quicker timeframes (ie, you don't really need to actually draw out the object via mt), and when they don't make it/break it have a great implication on what the current trend/formation you're looking at is going to do.

Trading of course is a combination of a whole bunch of factors.. Some other good ones are:
- The daily orderboard levels from forexlive
- 50 and 200 ma's on the 15 min chart (others could work also but these are the ones i use)
- daily pivot levels
- Boundaries of established channels
- yesterdays highs/lows.

Im a day trader so actively monitor the price on the way to and when it gets to these levels.. No idea what counts outside of intraday movements (and couldn't imagine how they would work with any reliability.. unless you're happy with massive stops and have weeks to wait.. just me though
  • #48
  • Nov 1, 2012 2:52am Nov 1, 2012 2:52am
Quoting scfx
I use a magic tea cup with Himalayan tea leaves to decide on buying or selling.
You may need this magic tea if your “betting” on the Forex market.
Predictions refer to probabilities and probabilities are drawn from market research and sentiment. If your do your research thus able to “read ” the price movement then you have a greater probability to place a wining trade.
  • #49
  • Nov 1, 2012 3:44am Nov 1, 2012 3:44am
I just want to quote from an article I read in askmariosingh.com. It is said that nobody is able to predict the movement of the market correctly at all times. The good news is we actually don't need to.

Do have an overview of fundamental events and news that might affect the market before you decide to enter the market. Trade according to what the market is doing after a certain events. That's when the Forex Factory calendar comes in handy.

Make sure you calculate your risk.
  • #50
  • Nov 1, 2012 11:50pm Nov 1, 2012 11:50pm
prediction!

having a crystalball comes handy with this approach - prediction!

or another way is to have astrological knowledge and constelations normally gives hint for one to predict - buy or sell

just be sharp and quick to see signs

ah love prediction

tonight, hmmm i can predict that some will buy and sell
  • #51
  • Nov 24, 2012 6:10am Nov 24, 2012 6:10am
through different analysis techniques....i personally do 50,200 DMA's and S/R levels alongwith Global Macro...
  • #52
  • Edited 10:35am Nov 25, 2012 9:29am | Edited 10:35am
My current view is that trying to predict future prices is like trying to predict the exact path of a big drunk bloke down the street. In both cases you can never be 100% correct because even he does not know where is he going and if you stand in his way you are likely to get flattened.

However, there are occasions if you have enough experience and study his disposition that you can predict his likely movement in the short-term. Those are the equivalent of the trade opportunities that some of the other posts are referring too.

In some ways I also think you need to behave like a casino in that you have to stack the odds in your favour with your trading system and then simply play the long game by not going bust before you have sufficient time to reap the benefits.
  • #53
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:05pm Jan 20, 2015 10:05pm
Sewing machine was needed in a movie (the movie with Morgan Freeman : I forget the movie name) but now we need charts ( normally candle chart with different timeframe).
  • #54
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:01am Jan 28, 2015 9:01am
MACD and other momentum indicators, like RSI, stochastic are the best to predict price, if prices follows the indicator or there divergences between them. Try always to be in the overall trend side also and trade the most volatily pairs, the mayors and some crosses that include USD, EUR or JPY currencys.

best luck in your fx journey
  • #55
  • Feb 3, 2015 3:29am Feb 3, 2015 3:29am
Hi Guys!

So I am by far an experienced trader, but what I find works best for me:
I place +-4 trades on the smaller trends. So the night before I will look at the the previous 1hr/30m/15m charts and try predict where the prices are going to be, and I will make trades accordingly.
Currently making 40pips a day.
Up and coming champion Pip collector.
  • #56
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:48pm Feb 4, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting mm2mm
How to know when to enter long or short? I don't know how to predict price and always betting. Thank you
Nobody knows where the market will move...predicting price is useless
Trade smart, not hard
  • #57
  • Feb 19, 2015 6:02am Feb 19, 2015 6:02am
You need to think a lot and to read a lot. News at investing and bloomberg. Also theory about resistance and support. And, surely, practice of real manual trading! It's quite easy to predict when you understand the system
  • #58
  • Feb 20, 2015 3:03pm Feb 20, 2015 3:03pm
In most cases, Forex Trading is not about predicting the price, but rather the direction the price is likely to move in the next hour, minutes or days. Predicting price is much a thing common in the stock market because investors look for value. Traders on the other hand are looking for profits and can trade regardless of which direction the market is headed, all they have to do is predict the correct direction.
  • #59
  • Oct 22, 2015 10:27am Oct 22, 2015 10:27am
Quoting TimTheTrader
{quote} Nobody knows where the market will move...predicting price is useless
Really, now??? I beg to differ as I do it here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=359093

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #60
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:17pm Oct 24, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Really, now??? I beg to differ as I do it here... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=359093 -CJ-
all luck...trust me..trading is a casino
Trade smart, not hard
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