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Silent Service Method

  • #14,821
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:50am Oct 30, 2012 8:50am
I went for sp500 rather than dj30 as they're the same (or similar) and I can trade smaller lot sizes. Looks like the usd weakness is helping. Good r/r on this too.
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  • #14,822
  • Oct 30, 2012 1:40pm Oct 30, 2012 1:40pm
Just spotted this on gbpchf. If that breaks this could be even better.
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  • #14,823
  • Oct 31, 2012 12:13am Oct 31, 2012 12:13am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I went for sp500 rather than dj30 as they're the same (or similar) and I can trade smaller lot sizes. Looks like the usd weakness is helping. Good r/r on this too.
I noticed the futures on almost all markets were saying the same thing. The CAC, FTSE, S&P, DJ, and NASDAQ all were leaning in the same direction....
  • #14,824
  • Oct 31, 2012 12:15am Oct 31, 2012 12:15am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Just spotted this on gbpchf. If that breaks this could be even better.
We will see about this. I have been on and off the fence about this one. I know that the SNB was diversifying their holdings by buying Pounds recently. (This could have stopped) There was a release by the Swiss just yesterday that was supposed to outline what they were buying. You could check their site - I haven't had time.
  • #14,825
  • Oct 31, 2012 12:16am Oct 31, 2012 12:16am
Quoting mypipbull
My 10c worth.
It's an unusual one, it looks like a great technical level but my fundamental COT analysis is conflicted on the issue. I use COT analysis as my primary filter then apply technical analysis after.

At the moment some US bonds are Bull setups (5 year notes) and some Bear setups (10 year notes) same for the US indexes Bull (Dow) and Bear (S&P)

Clearly things are a bit murky as the negative correlation between stocks and bonds is out of whack at the moment also.

As they say.....if in doubt stay out. So that's my position at the moment...
You have to be careful about the bond markets. Remember the Fed is buying certain notes, and therefore completely distorting the markets....
  • #14,826
  • Oct 31, 2012 7:27pm Oct 31, 2012 7:27pm
Quoting clockwork71
You have to be careful about the bond markets. Remember the Fed is buying certain notes, and therefore completely distorting the markets....
Yeah agree, that's clearly reflected in the data.
I'm leaving these all alone. Focusing on opportunities elsewhere.
  • #14,827
  • Oct 31, 2012 8:01pm Oct 31, 2012 8:01pm
Well we made it through the storm but still don't have any power. Not expected to get it back for a few days too. It's funny, I don't even know where stocks or bonds are trading right now.

Oddly enough I bought GNRC stock a few weeks ago... Little did I know I'd be buying their product too...

Full response when I have power!!
  • #14,828
  • Oct 31, 2012 9:36pm Oct 31, 2012 9:36pm
Interesting place to see a hammer at in the USD/CAD. Even more interesting to note it bounced off of the 200 EMA, and is above it for the first time since July......
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  • #14,829
  • Oct 31, 2012 9:36pm Oct 31, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Well we made it through the storm but still don't have any power. Not expected to get it back for a few days too. It's funny, I don't even know where stocks or bonds are trading right now.

Oddly enough I bought GNRC stock a few weeks ago... Little did I know I'd be buying their product too...

Full response when I have power!!
Cool......good luck with that - I hate power outages.
  • #14,830
  • Nov 1, 2012 11:22pm Nov 1, 2012 11:22pm
Here we go.....Non Farm Payroll.

However, before you get too excited....the US Presidential elections are on Tuesday. Because of this, look for NFP Friday to be a non-event......unless of course the numbers are way off base.
  • #14,831
  • Nov 1, 2012 11:57pm Nov 1, 2012 11:57pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here we go.....Non Farm Payroll.

However, before you get too excited....the US Presidential elections are on Tuesday. Because of this, look for NFP Friday to be a non-event......unless of course the numbers are way off base.
I can hear the algo HFT's getting excited already......
  • #14,832
  • Nov 4, 2012 3:56pm Nov 4, 2012 3:56pm
New week is starting.

Hope you will have a wonderful week .
  • #14,833
  • Nov 4, 2012 3:57pm Nov 4, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here we go.....Non Farm Payroll.

However, before you get too excited....the US Presidential elections are on Tuesday. Because of this, look for NFP Friday to be a non-event......unless of course the numbers are way off base.
Hey All, Just wondering what kind of action to expect with the US election this week?
I have heard from a few other traders over the years that the s+p falls if the Democrats win and rises if the Republicans win....any truth to this?

And if so, what kind of move? will it be in the futures market first if exit polls point to a result one way or another?
Or will it be a slow grind up or down throughout the week?
  • #14,834
  • Nov 4, 2012 3:59pm Nov 4, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting cupoftea2222
I have heard from a few other traders over the years that the s+p falls if the Democrats win and rises if the Republicans win....any truth to this?
I think it should be the opposite
  • #14,835
  • Nov 5, 2012 8:13am Nov 5, 2012 8:13am
Quoting cupoftea2222
Hey All, Just wondering what kind of action to expect with the US election this week?
I have heard from a few other traders over the years that the s+p falls if the Democrats win and rises if the Republicans win....any truth to this?

And if so, what kind of move? will it be in the futures market first if exit polls point to a result one way or another?
Or will it be a slow grind up or down throughout the week?
We are now in a world where almost all trading decisions are placed by algorithms. I think that the real action will be in the USD/JPY pair, with a Romney win sending the pair much higher. However, the world is focusing on the next bit of drama now - and that's only about an hour away it seems most of the time.

Because of this - I wouldn't waste my time trying to use some of these old axioms. They have all proven wrong over the last couple of years on the whole.
  • #14,836
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:23pm Nov 6, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting cupoftea2222
Hey All, Just wondering what kind of action to expect with the US election this week?
I have heard from a few other traders over the years that the s+p falls if the Democrats win and rises if the Republicans win....any truth to this?

And if so, what kind of move? will it be in the futures market first if exit polls point to a result one way or another?
Or will it be a slow grind up or down throughout the week?
Its an interesting situation. One thing is for sure, in the current environment always expect the unexpected. I think under the circumstances the best reasoning would be to be cautious.

It seems this year that event risk just keeps......coming...and coming. Its been difficult to settle into a trading rhythm.

It will be nice to get back to trading when everything is settled and non-volatile....when that happens can be anyone's guess.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,837
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:27pm Nov 6, 2012 3:27pm
If, against odds, Romney wins that would probably mean that Ben Bernanke's successor will be someone more hawkish which arguably would strengthen the USD, at least short term.

But I agree, be cautious and prepared for anything.
  • #14,838
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:44pm Nov 6, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting o990l6mh
If, against odds, Romney wins that would probably mean that Ben Bernanke's successor will be someone more hawkish which arguably would strengthen the USD, at least short term.

But I agree, be cautious and prepared for anything.
Interestingly, I was trying to work out whether the market has priced anything in, but then with the running so close that would be difficult. I agree o990l6mh, if Romney sneaks it, it might be a market mover ?.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,839
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:18pm Nov 6, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting j4d
Interestingly, I was trying to work out whether the market has priced anything in, but then with the running so close that would be difficult. I agree o990l6mh, if Romney sneaks it, it might be a market mover ?.
If you look at betting companies my guess is that the markets expect Obama to win, and if he doesn't that could possibly be a market mover yes.
  • #14,840
  • Nov 7, 2012 6:34am Nov 7, 2012 6:34am
Now that the results are in......the possibility of falling off of the fiscal cliff just got higher. The President has ran such negative ads (as well as the groups that represent him) in the US markets that it is very difficult to imagine a situation where the House will be willing to work with him.

At best we are looking at a "kick the can down the road for a year" approach as nothing has essentially changed after the election.
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