GBP/USD and EUR/USD

my analysis on AUDUSD.. as long as we stay below that trendline, i remain short biased....

Hi mikijk3,

Noted but this is my view of EURONZD

PA close below the s/r 1.5765 and Key point of S/R area for long 1.5800 and short is 1.5700 here the chart

Cheers

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...q-Rda1LuUrI-Sw


"The FX Trading Well Checklist"


I focus on the process of Good trading, Good execution, and Consistency

By consciously being aware of what you are focusing on at the moment, this will help you in Three ways :

• First, this will help you identify any triggers and associations that may be triggering the emotions that come up so that you can take steps to address the specific issue.

• Second, this will help you keep your logical mind engaged and fend off the wandering of your mind to thoughts and memories that trigger that emotional uprising.

• Third, this reinforces your habit and mental behavior pattern of staying focused on the process of trading and good execution.

When you are not aware of your conscious focus, you leave yourself open to getting caught up in your imagination and whatever hopes, fears and anxiety may come from the images and scenes that come with it. Remember though, that you must always distinguish between your Imagination and what your senses tell you is objective reality at this moment in time.

Make your intention to remain in the Here and Now.


I work with a proven methodology – and I’ve proven it to myself

The more your system is proven to you, the more you can have confidence in it.
This comes from experience with your system either through extensive back-testing in the markets you trade or through live trading experience.

If you are using a methodology whose “Proof” comes from another person or from speculation, then you are relying on hope and trust, which can be easily betrayed when met with reality.

By having first-hand experience of your system, you can “see” where the results come from and what truly is to be expected.
Any weaknesses of the system have been experienced by you along with the strengths.
When a string of losses occurs, you can keep faith in your system knowing when to expect the winners to come along. When the Winners do occur, you’ll know that they’re due and it’s okay to hang on.
You’ll also know better the differences in the quality of the winners that your system produces and how to spot them – is this a single or a possible double or triple ? The answer – and your appropriate actions - will be clearer.


I am comfortable with and fully understand my System

The more intimately you understand your System and the Mechanics of it, the better you’ll be prepared to deal with any unusual circumstances that come about. By understanding your system thoroughly, you’ll also be able to have a higher level of confidence and trust in it – and stick to it.

It is when our understanding of something has weaknesses that we are open to loss of confidence and trust – because when our expectations of it don’t mesh with the results we’re getting, we don’t know what to look for to resolved the discrepancy.
Without knowing where to look to take corrective action, we then naturally lose faith in the system as a whole and tend to rely more and more on other sources for guidance: such as our “gut feel”, “hunches”, the opinions of others, the news, etc.


I have back-tested my system and know what it should produce when properly executed under normal conditions

Percentage of winning trades versus losing trades. Average Winner-value and average Loser-value.

By understanding the metrics of your system, this provides a framework for you to operate within. Again, this goes back to proving the system to yourself.
By having hard numbers in hand as to what your systems true capabilities are - what it produces in the real world – this greatly helps to keep expectations in line with reality. Doubts, fears and frustration come from the discrepancy between what really happens and what we expect.

One of the Key benefits to knowing the Metrics of your system is knowing what the average loss is.
When you know an actual number this provides a clear limit to stay within when a market turn goes against you.
Remember, the need to keep Losses small is crucial to overall long term Profitability. Without a Very Specific loss limit for every Trade, this can often push your tolerance up beyond a healthy point because now you’re “Hoping” for that Winner so bad that the desire over-rides your caution.
When you have a specific limit to work within, this makes it much easier to keep the Losers within reason.

One of the Emotional challenges for traders is the “unlimited” aspect of trading. When a Market starts a run, who knows when it will stop or turn?
Nobody. Of course there are indicators to give us clues, such as support and resistance levels, but the market does break through them. Having the value for an average winner gives you a reference Point to work with when the Market goes in your favor. This helps you stay in if you’ve been getting out too early too often and leaving money on the table.

The back-testing also helps give you a more realistic expectation of what doubles, triples and home runs look like with your system in your market.
Instead of every trade having unlimited potential that fuels your hopes, you’ll know what is more realistic to expect as far as the Potential.


Trades I place are within my true personal risk tolerance

By keeping your trades within reasonable range of your True comfort zones, you will more easily keep a clear head. This is a key step in working with your emotions. You can go outside your comfort zones a little, but only do so with great caution. When you operate too far outside your comfort zones, you are immediately putting yourself into a fearful and anxious state.


My trading life is in balance with family, personal, social and business times

A Life out of balance brings stress, fatigue and guilt that only work against you.
By keeping your life in balance, you put the odds in your favor of being able to be at your Best when it is time to Trade.


I have and follow sound risk management rules for both my individual trades and overall Account protection

Sound risk management is at the Core of emotionally congruent Trading.
This starts with having rules that make sense to you, match well with your comfort zones, and that you truly believe in.

When your risk management rules meet the Criteria of ensuring that your doors will be open for the next Six months, this eases much stress and fear in each trade. By knowing that your Capital protection will have your Account balance reasonably in tact even if everything goes wrong, this takes considerable pressure off every trade to be a Winner.

By keeping at-risk Numbers low, such as Trade size, number of trades open, and percent of account at risk each month limited, many of your fears will not be triggered.

One Very Good Rule to live by is to look at Risk first, then to seek Profit only if the risk associated with it is within sound guidelines.


I always use protective measures, such as stops, to manage risk exposure and only take calculated risks

Regardless of the measures employed, having a way to limit your risk on every Trade – before you enter the Market – keeps your anxiety down and takes much of the uncertainty out of the picture. You may not know what the market will do, but at least you know what your maximum exposure is on every Trade.


I only use risk capital that is within my true comfort zones

Many times, a person will enter trading with the idea that it is unlikely that all of their Money will be truly at risk.
Most other Investments that people are familiar with do not carry the same level of real risk. Real estate and traditional buy-and-hold investments
may hold some risk, but the investor inherently knows that it is very unlikely that their entire investment will be lost.
Worst case scenario usually represents only a percentage being Lost. With trading, the entire account is at risk and by having that entire amount within your comfort zones to lose is a Key step to keeping fears at bay.

Not only should your risk capital be a sum that if lost will not put you in the poor house, but it should be an amount that if the entire amount were lost, that you could be Okay with it, that it truly is within your comfort zones.


I fully understand the core concepts in Trading

Many Traders get active with a limited understanding of the Core concepts in Trading. Confidence will be proportional to the level of understanding of a matter, and in Trading there is a considerable amount of information to absorb.
Like most bodies of Knowledge, there are core concepts and each of these serves as the Foundation for more detailed information. If the core concepts are only understood on a contextual Basis and not on a full Comprehension, this creates confusion on the more detailed levels.
Confusion leads to anxiety, mistrust, fear and a host of other detrimental emotions. By having a thorough understanding of the core concepts, this makes the detailed concepts much more rational and natural to understand.


I grasp all the terminology used in my Trading

Words are powerful and represent concepts. If you are working with words that are not fully understood, this creates a barrier to full Comprehension and Confidence.

Rather than a rote memorization of a Word, a full Comprehension of the Concept it represents gives you the ability to expand on the idea in a useful and beneficial way. This also makes the further learning much more natural and healthy, and raises the Comfort level associated with decision making.


I keep a Trading journal and Review it regularly

Within the Notion of continuous improvement of a process such as trading, recording the inputs to the system, including environmental variables, and the specific results of those inputs gives you the information necessary to reinforce what it working to your advantage and to take appropriate steps to address what is detrimental to your goals.


I generate reports for my trading business

Besides being a general good business practice, generating reports helps to organize information and keep one’s execution of Good trading practices in focus.

This also provides a method of feedback for you that is somewhat detached from individual trades. This is Powerful in maintaining your overall objectivity.


I regularly review my trading execution, with a focus on continuous improvement

By focusing on the Process of executing well, this allows you to keep your awareness high to what matters most – Trading Well.
If you are focused on the Trade execution specifically, keeping your mind in the present and on what you’re doing, this helps to keep your mind from wandering to the past or future where your Emotions and Imagination can work on you.


I remain aware of my beliefs to identify counter-productive beliefs and views of myself, money and trading.

Beliefs come from all different sources and identifying defeating beliefs is Critical to avoiding self-sabotage.
By identifying and replacing false and detrimental beliefs, this empowers you to grow and make progress toward your goals.


I follow my business plan, including: a budget, financial controls and general money management rules

By first having a business plan that is sufficiently complete and one that feels right when reviewing it, this gives you improved likelihood of having a profitable trading business.
It is when you begin an endeavor without a workable business plan that you are likely to encounter emotional challenges simply from the overall uncertainty in the future of the endeavor.

By having a plan and then following it, that you continue down the anticipated course. If necessary, you can make directional and situation-specific changes that keep you on track to achieving your goals.


I keep my math and trading skills finely honed

If your math or trading skills are weak or begin to deteriorate, your overall system is becoming weak.
These two skills will serve you very well when finely honed, as they are Core to Good trade execution and subsequent results. These also serve as keys to maintaining your confidence and discipline.


I keep my trading area organized and conducive to Good trading

Your operating environment contains many cues and associations, as well as influencing your habits and patterns.
By keeping your trading area organized and conducive to good trading, this only reinforces the consistent process of trading and the avoidance of error.


I adhere to healthy, sound routines and practices in my trading activity

By consciously identifying, recording in detail and evaluating your routines and practices, you will ensure consistency in your Trading.
Consistent trading is the most likely to produce consistent results. Also by focusing on your habits, your awareness will remain high when something is amiss and possibly working against you. You will then have the opportunity and information to take appropriate action.


I only trade when I am rested, well (not ill), and clear-headed.

Your trading depends very heavily on you as a person, so keeping yourself at an Optimum state and only trading when at your best gives you the best chance of successful execution of every Trade.



MEMO :
Expanded with what Each of these does for you...

Hi mikijk3,

Here the NZD lite fx index chart W1 and D1 ..... PA on the strong Bullish and play above the BRN

Cheers

Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Fade Breakouts ?

Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 5:18 AM
Marc Chandler

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MQ2qWQfdur...s200/cards.jpg

The US Dollar Index reached its best level in more than six weeks on Friday. Yet it managed to only close a couple of ticks higher, as if warning short-term participants against ideas that a breakout is at hand. This also appears to be the message of the yen's dramatic recovery from four-month lows.

Caught between what appears to be renewed deterioration of conditions in the euro area and US electoral and fiscal uncertainties, investors are paralyzed. Key events this week include policy meetings by the Japanese and Norwegian central banks, the new month PMI readings, and the US jobs and auto sales reports.

The economic data is unlikely to tell investors anything new. The euro zone economy is experiencing a shallow contraction for the second consecutive quarter. The UK data is likely to lend to our view that Q3 growth exaggerates the strength of the underlying economy. Meanwhile the US should continue to post modest net job creation. The Bloomberg consensus call for 125k rise in non-farm payrolls, which would be smack in the middle of the 3-month average (145k) and 6-month average (104k).

The auto sector, from production to sales to financing, has been an important part of the US recovery (and capital market segments, like asset-backed securities). US auto sales are expected to continue to be running near 3 1/2 year highs.

The Norges Bank meeting on Wednesday is unlikely to produce a change in policy, but like the recent central bank meetings in the US, Sweden, New Zealand and Canada, it may signal a rate hike a bit further off than previously indicated.

Attention is more directed at the Bank of Japan meeting. Speculation on additional action has mounted over the past couple of weeks. This is one of the key factors often cited for the yen's decline. However, low interest rates and QE have hardly been a powerful explanatory factor or predictive variable. It is not clear what another JPY10 trillion, the rumored increased of the BOJ assets purchases (QE), will accomplish what the JPY80 before it has not been able to do.

Other speculation has it that the BOJ will demonstrate its commitment to end deflation by calling 1% inflation not its target but its goal. Ironically, although there is often talk about the US (and/or Europe) going down the same financial path as Japan, Japanese policy makers may take a look at the US debate on targeting nominal GDP. This might be more effective than changing labels.

Yen futures were actively sold in the latest reporting period, with the net position swinging to the short side for the first time in four months. Longs bailed and new shorts were established Many commentators have also been swayed by the price action. We are less sanguine and suspect the market is vulnerable to "sell rumor and buy the fact" type of yen trading.

The net Swiss franc position switched to longs for the first time in eleven months. However, this was not a function of a bullish franc view. The real reason for the switch was the closing out of some short franc positions.

Euro: The near-term range appears to be $1.2880-$1.3030 within the larger $1.28-$1.32 broader range. The pattern by which the euro moves in the opposite direction on Monday from Friday is now nearly two months old. If the pattern is to remain intact, the euro would have to rise on Monday.

Yen: The dollar posted a potential key reversal on Friday, having traded at new (four-month) highs for the move against the yen before taking out and closing below the previous day’s low. Follow through dollar selling on Monday would confirm the pattern. However, we suspect the dollar to be sticky with initial support near JPY79.45 and then JPY79.15. A break of this latter level would likely be understood as confirmation that the JPY80 level has been rejected. Late yen shorts seem vulnerable and may help explain its recovery at the end of last week.

Sterling: After turning lower from down trend drawn off Sept and mid-Oct higher, sterling found better footing after the stronger than expected initial Q3 GDP report and growing skepticism over the extension of the gilt purchases program, which is set be completed shortly. The trend line comes in near $1.6120 on Monday. A convincing break could signal a retest on the year’s high just above $1.6300.

Swiss franc: As noted here last week, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are crossing in the major European currencies. Sterling’s 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average last month and the euro’s averages crossed before the weekend. The averages are poised to cross in the franc in the coming sessions. We recognize this as the ideals sequence: sterling leads the euro and the franc confirms it. However, we are intentionally playing the bullish implications of the so-called Golden Cross because we think it is a function of the one-off portfolio adjustments following the successful reduction of the extreme tail risk in Europe.

Canadian dollar: The market initially focused on the Bank of Canada’s reiteration of its assessment that monetary accommodation would have to be removed at some juncture and this spurred a further advance in the Canadian dollar. However, participants quickly realized, and the point was driven home in the monetary policy statement the following day, that such a move is not imminent. In fact, it appears that the BoC pushed it out further. We continue to look for the US dollar to test the CAD1.0040 area. Support is seen just below CAD0.9900.

Australian dollar: Second thoughts on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver back-to back rate cuts encouraged bottom pickers in the Aussie. We have argued that Australia’s reserve growth reflects official dissatisfaction with the level of the Australian dollar. Another rate cut would still leave Australia with the highest nominal rates in the G7 and relatively high real rates. The $1.04 area may pose a formidable challenge. Key support is seen near $1.0260.

Mexican peso: Before the weekend, the dollar reached its best level against the peso since September 11. However, one again good peso bids emerged on the pullback. The relatively high yield the peso pays (and hawkish talk by the central bank) gives the bulls greater ability to withstand the relatively small slippage in the spot peso. We look for the dollar to surrender its recent gains and return to the lower end of its recent range, which comes in around MXN12.75-MXN12.80.

Probably not relevant but this is my analysis on the EURGBP.... should contribute to EURUSD and GBPUSD traders...

Then this is what happened couple days after (being today...)
The Fact is, GBPUSD and EURUSD correlation has been whacked and to see why... EURGBP flows are significant and the Cable Wire Cross is really making sense for the flows.... as to why EUR relatively stronger than the GBP... the EURGBP has been in a uptrend since the summer back in July....

Accept EUR/GBP Pair for Post in these thread...

Check it in First Post, Mate

Thanks buddy, i hope its good analysis

Multi Levels for EUR/GBP in H1 time frime

Tuesday October 30, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PURPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

What's on Your Radar Screen?

Monday, October 29, 2012 at 5:45 AM
Marc Chandler

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-olZ498X70Z...s200/radar.jpg

The US dollar is posting modest gains across the board, the notable exception of the Japanese yen, on the back of what appears to be largely a risk-off day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index shed 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 0.5% late in London's morning. Spanish and Italian bond yields are higher. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower.

With short-term momentum indicators a bit stretched, this week's big events still ahead and a fainter signal from the US today with the closure of the stock market to precautions ahead storm, it may be difficult to significantly build on today's price action.

Berlusconi's rant over the weekend has drawn some attention. It was an emotional outburst after having been found guilty on tax fraud charges. His threat to withdraw support from Monti's technocrat government is likely a hollow threat as he, and his party, no longer wield the kind of power it once did. Moreover, elections are already planned for next spring. Nevertheless, obstructionist politics can take a toll on 2013 budget effort and underscores the impression political instability underneath the calm of the Monti government. Italian bonds and stocks are under-performing today.

Yet it is news from Spain that is more troubling. After last week's news of the Q3 rise in unemployment above 25%, it should not be surprising that consumption is drying up. Today Spain reported retail sales fell 10.9% from a year ago (work day adjustment basis). This follows a 2% decline in August. The Bloomberg consensus called for a 6.2% decline. Note that in real terms, the decline was even worse at -12.6%. Spain reports Q3 GDP tomorrow. A 0.4% contraction has already been tipped.

Rajoy's room to maneuver is narrowing. The request from the regions has already exhausted the earmarked funds. The projections that allow some to suggest that Spain's financing needs for the year have been completed appear to be assuming the deficit target not the likely overshoot. The government's cash reserves have also dwindled. Last week Spanish bonds turned in their worst performance in two months and this turn is a drag on Spanish banks, which is among the weakest equity sectors.

Elsewhere, since the controversial Outright Market Transaction announcement, Draghi has prevented a larger fissure with Germany by underscoring the conditionality that will be imposed, drawing a distinction between "unlimited" and "uncontrolled", and by endorsing Schaeuble's call for expanding the power of the EU monetary affairs commissioner role in approving (or not) members' budgets.

The ECB and Germany may still come to loggerheads over an official sector restructuring of Greece's debt, which would seem exclude the IMF and the ECB. Reports suggest the ECB is willing forego profit, but it might be also be persuaded to extend the duration. Schaeuble is dead set against and, before,the weekend, once again, raised possibility of a Greek exit.

The Swedish krona has responded well to an unexpectedly large rise in September retail sales. The 1.7% (month-over-month) gain was more than four-times more than the Bloomberg consensus forecast. Norway's central bank meets later this week and is widely expected to leave rates steady, though may push out further in time a rate hike.

For its part, the dollar has been confined to a 10-tick range on either side of JPY79.65. The 200-day moving average comes in near JPY79.50.

Japan reported a disappointing 0.4% increase (year-over-year) in September retail sales. The real focus is on the BOJ meeting which concludes tomorrow. At least a JPY10 trillion expansion of its asset purchase program is anticipated, though there is some talk an increase twice as large. The BOJ will likely extend the duration of the operation, currently to be completed by the end of 2013. A JPY20 trillion increase would likely see the period extend to the end of 2014.

Japan also releases other data tomorrow. The pace of household spending is expected to slow considerably as the effect of the government auto subsides influences the base effect. Nevertheless, weak domestic and foreign demand means that industrial output likely fell for its third consecutive month and at an accelerating pace.

What is Rajoy Waiting For ? Some Thoughts

Monday, October 29, 2012 at 12:51 PM
Marc Chandler

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9tmWvOzOoj...s200/hurry.jpg

Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy has continued to indicate that he will formally request more assistance when it is in the country's interest, which essentially means, when he is good and ready. And he is not now.

Following his meeting with Italy's Monti, Rajoy was quite candid. "The most important thing", Bloomberg quotes him saying, " is that the mechanism is there. He is acknowledging the actual value of the Outright Market Transactions (OMT) lies in its presence not operation.

Yet there is only so long that the market affections can be toyed with. The poor performance of Spanish bonds last week and the continued selling pressure today suggests investors patience is running thin. Draghi and the ECB had given Spain a reprieve in the form of the LTROs and the OMT.

Spanish bank deposits rose in September and anecdotal reports suggest a modest increase in foreign participation in the government auctions. Fitch's survey of the top ten US money market funds also found new exposure to European banks.

Rajoy is obviously and understandably reluctant to ask for broader assistance. And why should it? It still has access to the capital markets.
That identifies the first condition that would likely force Rajoy's hand, namely, a dramatic rise in interest rates.

This is a distinct possibility, especially if one view the recent capital inflows as one-off adjustments, perhaps in part driven by benchmark/index considerations, as opposed to a reflection of new found confidence/optimism.

The risk-reward has also shifted. Spain's 10-year generic bond yield has ranged between about 5.0% and 7.75%. The Draghi-induced rally saw the yield more than 200 bp to the lower end of the range (~5.25%).

In addition, given the government's rosy forecast for only a 0.5% contraction next year, any signs of weaker growth trajectories could perversely weigh on bonds on account of the implication for the budget deficit. Typically, one expects weak or disappointing economic data to push yields lower, but in Spain, the dynamics may be overwhelmed by the fiscal impulses. Deeper economic contraction means large budget deficit and more debt.

The second condition that could force Rajoy's hand if he could not longer protect Spain's pensions. This is important in a country of 10 mln retired people in a country of 47 mln people.

It is the single biggest line item of the budget, accounting for 40% of spending and 9% of GDP (France 15% and Italy 13% for comparison). Given it size, it is clear that serious fiscal reform cannot take place without a discussion of pension. So far Rajoy has protected pensions in a way that Greece did not. In fact, the 2013 budget will fund a 1% increase in pensions by drawing down the fund's reserves.

Some reports suggest Spain's pensions also are part of the inter-generational transfer taking place. The government estimates that 1.7 mln of the 16 mln Spanish households have no salary income. Pensions in Spain appear to help support children and/or grandchildren.

Spain and Italy are on the same side of numerous debates in the euro area. They are both significant debtors and in the current environment this counts for a great deal. This is fine for the milquetoast joint press conferences, but below there surface there is a prisoners' dilemma game being played out and Monti is not cooperating.

It would be best for both if neither needed financial assistance.

Second best would be to ask jointly. Some Italian and French officials seem to think that if Spain were to formally request aid that it would help stabilize the financial markets. Monti may think Italy is being dragged down by Spain. However, the risk is that they are wrong: that if Spain gets assistance, the market, even if not immediately, will re-focus on Italy. What they do not seem to appreciate is the first mover advantage. A firewall is drawn and Spain in on one side and Italy on the other.

However, if Italy and Spain sought a precautionary facility simultaneously, it would reduce the stigma and be a stronger firewall. In fact, there might be nothing like a simultaneous French request in sympathy to solidify the firewall. France would not have to drawn on the line, of course. Precautionary lines of credit for Spain and Italy and France would do for sovereigns what the largely unused bilateral currency swap lines do for financial markets--ensured their ongoing operations.

The third permutation that might move Rajoy off the stick and on the ball is his friends in Europe would seek precautionary facilities at the same time. No one is talking about a package for Italy, but at the press conference after meeting with Rajoy, Monti again made a point of essentially saying that Italy was not Spain. It did not need assistance.

Given that Monti heads up an un-elected technocrat government, it would not appear he has a mandate to enter into a multi-year commitment with the Troika. However, a move in conjunction with Spain (and France), could be presented by multilateral initiative. An agreement with the Troika could help increase the odds that the successor government (next spring) does not unwind Monti's reforms.

It would allow Hollande to head up a faction to do what France an no longer do on its own and that is serve as a counter-weight to Germany. It would bring into better balance the interests of the creditors and debtors and sustaining that tension, without an all out victory for either side, is what it is all about.

Nor will the countries really be giving up anything that won't be taken away shortly. Schaeuble's proposal, endorsed by Draghi, for stronger and more invasive EU (Monetary Affairs Commissioner) oversight of national budgets, would further weaken fiscal sovereignty.

It is not clear what European officials mean when they say they will do anything it takes to save the euro. Does it mean asking for a precautionary facility? It is precautionary rather than reactive. The current strategy remains reactive. The Rajoy and Monti meeting was an opportunity to break this dynamic. If Monti (and Hollande) want Rajoy to take a package, there may be no better way to persuade him than by taking a package themselves.

The alternative, is succumbing to increased pressure, either directly through the markets, where the country faces record debt refinancing next year, or indirectly through the deterioration of the social fabric.

It is because Europe moves by crisis that the euro is may have to work its way lower still. Key support has been established near $1.2800 and there has been talk of official interest below $1.2900. Many suspect that the euro is in a lose-lose situation. The economic and financial fall out from US not being able to avoid the full force of the fiscal cliff is thought to make investors more risk averse, which is thought to help the dollar. Alternatively, the fiscal cliff is avoided or mitigate and a US recession is avoided, and the superior returns and unresolved European debt crisis weighs on the euro.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...Piy2j_PIThJDuo

Valentine lyrics http://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/balalaika.gif
Songwriters : Brickman, Jim; Kugell, Jack David;


If there were no words
No way to speak
I would still hear you
If there were no tears
No way to feel inside
I'd still feel for you

And even if the sun refused to shine
Even if romance ran out of rhyme
You would still have my heart until the end of time
You're all I need, my love, my Valentine

All of my life
I have been waiting for all you give to me
You've opened my eyes
And shown me how to love unselfishly

I've dreamed of this a thousand times before
In my dreams I couldn't love you more
I would give you my heart until the end of time
You're all I need, my love, my Valentine

And even if the sun refused to shine
Even if romance ran out of rhyme
You would still have my heart until the end of time
'Cause all I need is you, my Valentine

You're all I need, my love, my Valentine



Frankly, I personally like 'Variety Music' :
Classic, Rock, Slow Rock, Jazz, Semi Jazz, Pop, Instrumental & Memories like too. I listen it according to my mood.
These Song of 'Love and Happiness' to me & my Wifehttp://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/kiss2.gif
We choose it before our Wedding 10+ years ago...

Inserted Video

we have resistance downward tl from may, 2011
-1.304x as resistance from this tl
-any break upward should bring 1.315x as next resistance
-a bounce down should bring 1.290x-1.2880 again
- a break lower of 1.288x should bring us to 1.2800

Hi all, some levels that i'm looking at, the numbers are whispering something about 1.2828... let's see... might need another top first (3014-3040)

That what i waiting "If true we will see fast big drop next 2 days"
otherwise will think long next week

are we forming an inverse hs right shoulder on h4?
hope so i would like to get rid of my trade today or tomorrow latest
-red horizontal as your neckline and also shoulder
-keep eye on h4 candle closing red and next one below 1.2945 is a sign of down...this candle is bearish inside bar forming and need 1.2945 for confirmation imo
-also that magic 1.2950 recommendation...in my opinion this has been the bull or bear point...



thanks,

G

GU observation....
On monthly I'm seeing this bear flag.
I'll post chart later. What direction will take up or down?

i dont like what i see and i hope we break support finally and not bounce anymore....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1351740034

Hi All,

Updated EurNzd .....

GBPUSD Pinbar reversal



http://i.imgur.com/K6ZdD.png?1