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Martingale... How to make it WORK for YOU!

  • #141
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:15am Oct 28, 2012 12:15am
Oh yea btw.........you gotta have atleast 1 vouch.........to even post.....this is not for people that can not even calculate a risk of a trade.......
  • #142
  • Edited 12:29am Oct 28, 2012 12:17am | Edited 12:29am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I get exactly what you're saying mate. Like I said, go do it before you lead a bunch of people down this path

Unfortunately our financial world is run by such probability models, must be why our economies and financial systems are in such great shape as well.
its not because the odds were against them.........it was because of greedy pockets......


The odds none the less are 1:1 in a given period.........so that is a 50% chance to make a profit.......

So now ask yourself...can you increase the chance...FUCK NO! Its trading you either have a win or loss.........but if you want to count breakevens...........then you just cut losses that could have been profitable if you would have allowed for possible losers...........
  • #143
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:21am Oct 28, 2012 12:21am
so if someone will..since this a VOUCHED thread....

what are the odds or probability that 12 out of 12 trades will be losers.........Just for shits and giggles.......you know even newbies can read this...lets stop getting into number most do not understand or if they might have a hint...they use the wrong formula for the equation .........
  • #144
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:22am Oct 28, 2012 12:22am
You do NOT need to define the system or anything else besides knowing the POSSIBLE ODDS.......or PROBABILITY .........that 12 of 12 trades will be wrong.......
  • #145
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:24am Oct 28, 2012 12:24am
Hanover....your are a smart mofo............i love your coding, you have help me learn MQL...WAY FUCKING BETTER then steve *cough cough* whats the rest of his SN...you get shit....if you run the numbers in what i call "dummy mode"
  • #146
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:32am Oct 28, 2012 12:32am
Lets get into real MONEY MANAGEMENT.....not shit like risk only 2%-5% per trade...

That does not count on you trading more then 1 pair..........it does not count on the possible setups you could have in one day........1 week..........1 month......1 year ............etc.........
  • #147
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:33am Oct 28, 2012 12:33am
You want to get real................then do it starting with your Money Management and your TRADING CAPITAL..............

Getting "LUCKY" is rare...........you cant order this shit at the steak house.......
  • #148
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:36am Oct 28, 2012 12:36am
Its point blank.........the more possible setups or trades a system can produce.......the more the odds are in your FAVOR! ...............

If you combine this with PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT ........then your win........if you do not give a fuck.......and think you are smarter then the next mofo..just because you can spell a word correctly with auto correct........you are doomed for failure!
  • #149
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:38am Oct 28, 2012 12:38am
I am not saying use M...lets call it that from now on......


With 1 pair will always work....but if you imply it with multiple pairs........fuck yes it will.........if you know the FACTS! of the market....which i still have yet to see any of these "PRO" traders even say happen!......
  • #150
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:39am Oct 28, 2012 12:39am
The reason this will not work (in my humble opinion)

Is that you are not trading at 50/50 odds to begin with, it will always be skewed in the markets because whatever position you take you have no idea of the outcome. It's not the same as a 50/50 coin flip. The market may be bullish or bearish at any given time, sometimes neutral. There's no 50/50 about it over 10 trades.

If your system based on 1000 tests indicate that losing 12 times in a row is "impossible" then you need no look further than your results and you will find that (probably) there were times when you lost 14, 13, 12 times in a row only to be compensated by a large string of winners (market volatility at its best).

There is no harm (again imo) basing your strategies off probabilities, of course this would seem a smart (perhaps sometimes misguided) way of adjusting your trading size. But to back it as RELIGION in the way of martingale (with words like "impossible" etc), is financial suicide in the end, as nothing is impossible or improbable when the markets are concerned.

But anyway... Have a go, see what you find.
Time hides Nothing
  • #151
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:46am Oct 28, 2012 12:46am
Inserted Video
  • #152
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:47am Oct 28, 2012 12:47am
Another point to consider,,, (you might need to sit down for this one)

You will have to adjust your position sizes to allow for leverage restrictions in the worst case scenario of an 11 trade losing streak...

That means you will be starting rather small on the first position no? Like really small

Inserted Video



This of course means you will be missing profits just to compensate for the unlikely event that you hit a bad streak..

That kinda defeats the purpose ya?
Time hides Nothing
  • #153
  • Oct 28, 2012 1:03am Oct 28, 2012 1:03am
It is amazing that people comment things they donīt understand.

If you would dare to look at a H1-chart with a freebie-template,
you would not be able to find more than 2 or 3 losing setups
in a row.
You can go back for years.

Why then are you talking about losing 9 or 10 setups in a row ?

Some people just need attention instead of contributing .
  • #154
  • Edited 1:21am Oct 28, 2012 1:04am | Edited 1:21am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Is that you are not trading at 50/50 odds to begin with, it will always be skewed in the markets because whatever position you take you have no idea of the outcome..
Well you know that either you will win or lose right...........so that is a 50/50 shot....

Quoting CindyXXXX
There's no 50/50 about it over 10 trades..
well your almost right.......but if there was just "bullish" or "bearish" or...maybe sometimes "neutral"...........the odds decrease...from 50% to 33%. Please refer to the last page with the odds for losing 12 of 12 and 24 of 24 trades.........

Quoting CindyXXXX
If your system based on 1000 tests indicate that losing 12 times in a row is "impossible"
This is "almost" not about a system....its more about the odds....or probability of you winning 1 of 12 trades............and 1000 tests......that is only 83 days but there is roughly 240 trading days in a year minus the "holidays". So your only accounting for 34.5% of the trades in 1 years....

Quoting CindyXXXX
But to back it as RELIGION in the way of martingale (with words like "impossible" etc), is financial suicide in the end, as nothing is impossible or improbable when the markets are concerned.
RELIGION---

re·li·gion/riˈlijən/
Noun:
The belief in and worship of a superhuman controlling power, esp. a personal God or gods.
Details of belief as taught or discussed.

Well yes...."if you believe you can achieve".......if you can not see what can become...how can you see where you will be in 5 years from now? Do you think all the kids that went to college went there to have wild crazy drug induced sex with wild strangers?( it was FUN!)...fuck no they had a GOAL!.....they developed a plan ..............they worked towards that goal filling in the steps in between............
  • #155
  • Oct 28, 2012 1:08am Oct 28, 2012 1:08am
Quoting fxtr51
It is amazing that people comment things they donīt understand.

If you would dare to look at a H1-chart with a freebie-template,
you would not be able to find more than 2 or 3 losing setups
in a row.
You can go back for years.
.
Well sounds like you have the grail. What are you doing here then?
Time hides Nothing
  • #156
  • Oct 28, 2012 1:10am Oct 28, 2012 1:10am
Quoting Dredding82
Well you know that either you will win or lose right...........so that is a 50/50 shot....
..
I honestly have nothing more to say, if this works for then great! Was just sparking some things to think about on this glorious Sunday afternoon.

Good luck with it.
Time hides Nothing
  • #157
  • Edited 1:22am Oct 28, 2012 1:11am | Edited 1:22am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Another point to consider,,, (you might need to sit down for this one)

You will have to adjust your position sizes to allow for leverage restrictions in the worst case scenario of an 11 trade losing streak...

That means you will be starting rather small on the first position no? Like really small

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hljPe6euy8


This of course means you will be missing profits just to compensate for the unlikely event that you hit a bad streak..

That kinda defeats the purpose ya?
Missing profits? lmao! there is no such thing in trading...that is like chasing Eurusd for every pip to the high and then trying to sell it to the low..........missing pips....or profit.....that will happen!

Lets put it this way and maybe someone will understand what "CASH FLOW" is.............put $1000 into the account......

your max risk is 25%......your MARGIN................

then set your Trading Capital Risk with your reinvestment rate..........or your CASH FLOW!

and just leave it the fuck alone...........its STEADY..........CASH FLOW......
  • #158
  • Oct 28, 2012 1:11am Oct 28, 2012 1:11am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Well sounds like you have the grail. What are you doing here then?

Please see the "Freebie" thread.......i get BORED!
  • #159
  • Oct 28, 2012 1:12am Oct 28, 2012 1:12am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I honestly have nothing more to say, if this works for then great! Was just sparking some things to think about on this glorious Sunday afternoon.

Good luck with it.
Time hides Nothing
  • #160
  • Oct 28, 2012 1:14am Oct 28, 2012 1:14am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I honestly have nothing more to say, if this works for then great! Was just sparking some things to think about on this glorious Sunday afternoon.

Good luck with it.
Well this did not start as a debate....but i guess everyone needs or wants to learn some math and money management(no offence)......so lets say it were the NEWBIES can learn and maybe some long time members.......right?

BTW.............its only Sunday morning here lol(4:00am)
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