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Silent Service Method

  • #14,781
  • Oct 23, 2012 4:29pm Oct 23, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting stewrigh
Yep and I added to it twice I'm also still in the Dow
Hot damn.....great trade. I also think there is a bit more to go as well. The bounces will probably have me selling the rallies via the NADEX markets.
  • #14,782
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:25pm Oct 23, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting clockwork71
Hot damn.....great trade. I also think there is a bit more to go as well. The bounces will probably have me selling the rallies via the NADEX markets.
Bit lucky tbh and I think theres more to come too. This was another classic example of the charts anticipating the news.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/m...e-results.html
  • #14,783
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:56pm Oct 23, 2012 11:56pm
I'm still watching this one but I'm a bit worried about what it will do if tensions with Syria blow up.

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  • #14,784
  • Oct 24, 2012 7:22am Oct 24, 2012 7:22am
Quick word of warning.......do not use the forexpros site for charts in a pinch. I just got burnt in a binary option because their "live" feed for the December Silver contract is off by about 15 cents from the actual price. Nice....only cost me $300......
  • #14,785
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:40am Oct 24, 2012 11:40am
I apologize that this post is a bit off-topic, but I've been following this thread for a long time now and figure this might be as good a place as any to ask the question.

Does the possibility exist that a retail trader's sl on a long position, for example, would not be executed in the event of a massive selloff of a particular currency (i.e. that there are no buyers at the sl because it is hit in the midst of a selling frenzy)? In theory couldn't such an event could result in hundreds or even thousands of pips of slippage?

I appreciate any responses.
  • #14,786
  • Oct 24, 2012 12:52pm Oct 24, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting Bklyn
I apologize that this post is a bit off-topic, but I've been following this thread for a long time now and figure this might be as good a place as any to ask the question.

Does the possibility exist that a retail trader's sl on a long position, for example, would not be executed in the event of a massive selloff of a particular currency (i.e. that there are no buyers at the sl because it is hit in the midst of a selling frenzy)? In theory couldn't such an event could result in hundreds or even thousands of pips of slippage?

I appreciate any responses....
Yes it's possible - my broker offers guaranteed stop losses at a wider spread tho.

I used to worry about this as well until I started setting what I call WTF stops - basically I put my stop where price will only go if the world falls apart and I reduce my position size to handle the risk.
  • #14,787
  • Oct 24, 2012 9:29pm Oct 24, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting clockwork71
Jigsaw brings up some really valid points here. Forex is not a way to make a living unless you have serious bank behind you.

If you make 3% a month, which is pretty decent.....

A 100,000 USD account only makes you 3,000 USD a month to live on. Oh, and by the way....you are never going to make more than that because you will always start with 100 k every month. Now what happens if next month you only make 0.5%? That's only 500 USD.

Compound interest is indeed the magic here, but unless you have a ton of money in your account, it's no way...
You say back here in 2009 that 3% is all one can expect to make in Forex consistantly. I wonder then if Forex futures would have a higher or lower return then? Hmmmm. I also think that very good Equities traders can make 5% a week easily because they are not tying their money up for long if they know how to play the opening gaps in the morning. We Forex traders dont get opening gaps.

Also, what was the monthly percent that the turtle traders made from Market Wizards? That might be a good benchmark to use as we have gone so much past that simple system since then yet it was invented by the best traders so it might be a good starting point for the first year or 2. I cant remember what they said it was. I know Covel who claims to have been a turtle said what it was in one of his books I just cant remember now.

I will say this, 3% WILL seem very tasty now if we have a financial melt down and all markets are having negative returns. But right now I think the s&p returned about 30% just buying and holding these last 12 months no?

I think you make a good point. You DO have to be an 'expert" to make the returns you really yearn for. There is a guy who will teach you how to daytrade the s&p for 5k and set up thousands of charts on your computer for you and completely redesign your computer remotely and he uses no indicators, just charts. So, I ask myself, why is he doing this. And then I said, I heard only good things about him so whats the story and then it hit me...he is a winning trader, but if he could make $5001 dollar a week by trading, he'd trade. People always go where the money is. Perfect example: The guys who run Forex factory. Brilliant guys. But they are not here for charity...anymore. If trading couyld make them more than running this form ,they would sell or disband this forum quicker than an egg would fry on a hot sidewalk. People always go where the money is. I personally will not be in the biz if I can only make 3% and not be able to let it compound. Maybe I will start selling courses or hypnosis courses on how to be a better trader. (just kidding.)

I ASK everyone on this thread: WHO WOULD STILL WANT TO TRADE FOR A LIVING IF 3% WAS ALL YOU'D EVER AVERAGE ALL OF YOUR LIFE?
  • #14,788
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:21pm Oct 24, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting clockwork71
The VIX is a screaming buy as soft as it has been lately.
Hey Clock,

Would you recommend slightly out of the money options and if so, how far out?

In fact, If you wanted to specialize in buying options, I'd assume volatile equities would be the way to go, but could you delineate a good rule base to get started with them?
  • #14,789
  • Oct 25, 2012 12:36am Oct 25, 2012 12:36am
Quoting stewrigh
Yep and I added to it twice I'm also still in the Dow
You probably guessed already but I'm out of the PY - gave some back on that one - it happens.
  • #14,790
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:23am Oct 25, 2012 6:23am
USDJPY testing 80.50

Patiently waiting for PA on that area... Don't know when but I believe its worth the wait
  • #14,791
  • Oct 26, 2012 8:35am Oct 26, 2012 8:35am
Quoting Silat50
You say back here in 2009 that 3% is all one can expect to make in Forex consistantly. I wonder then if Forex futures would have a higher or lower return then? Hmmmm. I also think that very good Equities traders can make 5% a week easily because they are not tying their money up for long if they know how to play the opening gaps in the morning. We Forex traders dont get opening gaps.

Also, what was the monthly percent that the turtle traders made from Market Wizards? That might be a good benchmark to use as we have gone so much past that simple...
Hi Silat50, anyone with there head screwed on the right way would be happy to receive a guaranteed 3% a month......
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,792
  • Oct 26, 2012 8:59am Oct 26, 2012 8:59am
Quoting j4d
Hi Silat50, anyone with there head screwed on the right way would be happy to receive a guaranteed 3% a month......
Trouble is it's not 'guaranteed' lol
  • #14,793
  • Oct 26, 2012 9:09am Oct 26, 2012 9:09am
Quoting stewrigh
Trouble is it's not 'guaranteed' lol
Of course......it's a hypothetical question.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,794
  • Oct 27, 2012 1:21am Oct 27, 2012 1:21am
Quoting j4d
Hi Silat50, anyone with there head screwed on the right way would be happy to receive a guaranteed 3% a month......
J4,

#1-No disrespect but obviously you never read Market Wizards,the biographies of the 10 or 15 best traders in the world. Some of them turned 10-25,00 into millions. You cant do that at 3% a month. That end is right there.

#2-My personal experience. I made almost that much as an intermediate swing and position trader in my moms retirement account buying good stocks with a low PER for her. If I used margin and add in the 8-10% dividend I got on some of them, it would be easily at 36% a year. She passed away so I cant tell you about the last 2 years. Sorry. In fact I bought AAPL in her acct at $33 around 6-7n trs ago and sold it with the intent of getting abck in if it went back to break even .It did and I forgot to get back in and that was over a 20 bagger right there. Where is a forex or futures trader going to make 20x on his money holding for 3-4 yrs? The week before my mom died I bought her NFLX at like 35 bucks or so. It went to 300 but I had to liquidate it at around 38 because of her death.

#3-Warren Bufffett has said many times he could earn 50% a year if he only had to manage his own portfolio.

My problem now is Im now involved in Forex which is not my main game and yes, id love to have made 3% a month in forex. I will be going back to equities which are easier and more fun if I cant pick it up in Forex in 2-4 more weeks.

By the way if 3% a month impresses you so much, I will solve part of the problem. Buy a good corporate bond fund yielding 10% and buy it on margin so youll get 20% return. Its harder to find those funds now than when my mom was alive.Back then most "experts" didnt know that bond funds werent very risky at all. So they left em alone and thus I got 8-13%.
  • #14,795
  • Oct 27, 2012 1:38am Oct 27, 2012 1:38am
Quoting Silat50
J4,

#1-No disrespect but obviously you never read Market Wizards,the biographies of the 10 or 15 best traders in the world. Some of them turned 10-25,00 into millions. You cant do that at 3% a month. That end is right there.

#2-My personal experience. I made almost that much as an intermediate swing and position trader in my moms retirement account buying good stocks with a low PER for her. If I used margin and add in the 8-10% dividend I got on some of them, it would be easily at 36% a year. She passed away so I cant tell you about the last 2...
Hey Silat50, Its only my opinion my friend, its opinions that make this place interesting..It sounds like your on top of the markets already.. I'm sure you'll be on top of the FX markets in the timescale you specified soon....

Good luck and all the best with your trading..

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,796
  • Oct 27, 2012 1:44am Oct 27, 2012 1:44am
Quoting Silat50
I ASK everyone on this thread: WHO WOULD STILL WANT TO TRADE FOR A LIVING IF 3% WAS ALL YOU'D EVER AVERAGE ALL OF YOUR LIFE?
Absolutely. 3% per month is 42% per year compounded.
Perhaps you can answer this.....do you think a return of 42% pa is poor?
  • #14,797
  • Edited 6:45am Oct 27, 2012 6:26am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting mypipbull
Absolutely. 3% per month is 42% per year compounded.
Perhaps you can answer this.....do you think a return of 42% pa is poor?
Been following this debate and thought I'd offer my perspective.

Lets assume we have $100 k account and look to make 3% pm - thats $3k pm.

Ok lets say we make 10 trades per month and we have a hit rate of 50% - no better than a coin toss.

So our RR needs to be at least 2-1, to come out ahead, but lets assume it's 3-1 and we risk 3% per trade not 2.

So if 5 of our trades are profitable at 3-1 we will make 3X the risk so 3X 3000 is 9000 on each of 5 winning trades or 45k, but we will lose 5X3(15000) = 30k(45-15) or 30% pm profit - begins to look much better doesn't it?

Yeah I know that's hypothetical and we are gonna get losing streaks but we can begin to see how it works.

I also think that most of us do better than a 50% win rate.
  • #14,798
  • Oct 27, 2012 3:10pm Oct 27, 2012 3:10pm
Well well well, looks like the under evaluation and main commercial forum have been merged. So we're all in the soup together!

This has one major, major advantage...I can post here again! :-)

Chris, I've been keeping up with your thread since I went commercial but not been able to contribute unfortunately.

To anyone who wants to know this is the best thread to read if you want to learn to make money from trading. A lot of the contents of this thread are incorporated into my own trading style today conciously or mostly perhaps unconciously.

Another big thanks to you Chris, may you keep on forever.
  • #14,799
  • Edited 1:13am Oct 28, 2012 12:20am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting stewrigh
Been following this debate and thought I'd offer my perspective.

Lets assume we have $100 k account and look to make 3% pm - thats $3k pm.

Ok lets say we make 10 trades per month and we have a hit rate of 50% - no better than a coin toss.

So our RR needs to be at least 2-1, to come out ahead, but lets assume it's 3-1 and we risk 3% per trade not 2.

So if 5 of our trades are profitable at 3-1 we will make 3X the risk so 3X 3000 is 9000 on each of 5 winning trades or 45k, but we will lose 5X3(15000) = 30k(45-15) or 30% pm profit - begins to look...

Hey Stu, absolutely, its a numbers game, the numbers always look good in theory its putting it into practical terms. Because were all unique, discretionary trading results will always differ ..That's what makes this discussion almost impossible. Having stable uniformity in our returns is the goal but rarely does it happen because there are so many variables..

Happy trading this week mate..

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,800
  • Oct 28, 2012 2:12am Oct 28, 2012 2:12am
Quoting j4d
Hey Stu, absolutely, its a numbers game, the numbers always look good in theory its putting it into practical terms. Because were all unique, discretionary trading results will always differ ..That's what makes this discussion almost impossible. Having stable uniformity in our returns is the goal but rarely does it happen because there are so many variables..

Happy trading this week mate..

Ja.
Thanks Ja u2, yeah when you do the numbers on a ss they look great - things never work out quite like that tho.

The key IMO is to control those things we can and don't worry about the rest - just let the market do it's thing.

And the only things we can control are our risk and our emotions.
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