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Australian Bear Raid

  • #421
  • Oct 26, 2012 12:17pm Oct 26, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting jplazard
It seems like it could be as the markets are on there upper or lower end of their respective channels. Dollar for example is almost ready to break out of this consolidation here and ES has been as low at 1394 now hitting sells below 1400 this could be huge tomorrow. AAPL failed to keep the market up but GDP if worse than exp will see dollar soar to 618 retrace and ES aud risk in general will get hit even harder

This will give aud/usd A nice weekly pinbar to end on Friday which will be bad for the week and few days going into RBA cuts if they...
I really enjoy reading your article. Really appreciate you taking time to explain to us. The information you provide us was really useful. Thanks! I am still at chapter one of Alchemy of Finance. LOL
  • #422
  • Oct 26, 2012 12:22pm Oct 26, 2012 12:22pm
When he explains reflexivity it will be difficult to understand I suggest you look at the Currency chapter or Credit/Banking chapter they are an easier read.

When he talks about The conglomerate Boom/Bust it really shows expectations and reality in great detail.

Thank you and yes this week has been one of those on edge will AUD do this or do that type week. I came to the realization I need to just look at one chart for direction and right now it is holding great resistance heading into RBA nov
  • #423
  • Oct 26, 2012 12:29pm Oct 26, 2012 12:29pm
chart I am speaking of. All fibs on here are significant but the Yellow fibs is the last hi to the recent low. It is still holding and failed twice to close above the 50% on Daily
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  • #424
  • Oct 26, 2012 12:44pm Oct 26, 2012 12:44pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post6136823
If ppl ever want a market that moves look at high beta stocks and trade the weekly's they are insane when you catch reversals

Bot at 2.93 now trading at 5 I could get out now with a little over 3K profit but this level were I entered at is a reversal on an ABC fib retrace

White circle is my entry area.

EDIT: Traded a bit higher and now looks like profit taking might come in a bit. This is going into next week for sure on my book


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  • #425
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:06pm Oct 26, 2012 1:06pm
closed AAPL calls with very nice profit. I had to remember I am trading options on a breakout basis and I got it so I need to get out once its exhausted. Made about 8K in less than 3hours, OHHH i do miss option trading but I love the aspects of Macro trading currencies


AAPL really came back but now I expect some profit taking to come in EOD so Im not going to be the one holding the bag last. Looking for next week Monday to do it again when it comes back down to the retrace level once more
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  • #426
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:08pm Oct 26, 2012 1:08pm
8K in 3 hours...... Man I dream of those days.
  • #427
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:09pm Oct 26, 2012 1:09pm
On AUD/USD as long as we don't close above 1.03687 then the 50% retrace won't get tested. But if we do Then i will be a bit worrisome
  • #428
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:11pm Oct 26, 2012 1:11pm
I only put up a small amount less than 10K option trading is great you should look at this book. Also Option trading is best for small accounts my Brother built up 900 to 11K in a few month trading cheap Out of the Money options on breakouts. Now he teaches and trades full time.


http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Option...a+professional

if you don't want to spend the money I am the guy to go to for free books lol online pm me if you ever want boooks on options trading.

Its cheaper if yo know what strike prices to pick relative to the vol's than it is to open up a Standard lot in forex.
  • #429
  • Oct 26, 2012 3:07pm Oct 26, 2012 3:07pm
we might close above the 618% mentioned earlier at 1.03687. This brings 50% retrace to sell at 1.03864 and then 786 at 1.04 even.
If risk is exceptionally high on Sunday than there is no real selling opp till 1.0430-35
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  • #430
  • Oct 26, 2012 11:35pm Oct 26, 2012 11:35pm
Quoting jplazard
When he explains reflexivity it will be difficult to understand I suggest you look at the Currency chapter or Credit/Banking chapter they are an easier read.

When he talks about The conglomerate Boom/Bust it really shows expectations and reality in great detail.

Thank you and yes this week has been one of those on edge will AUD do this or do that type week. I came to the realization I need to just look at one chart for direction and right now it is holding great resistance heading into RBA nov
Yeah, The way he explains reflexivity sounds deep. Will continue reading it! Very good read!
  • #431
  • Oct 28, 2012 4:51pm Oct 28, 2012 4:51pm
Seems like a quiet day not looking for much tonight. I will see if any ASX or Iron news comes across the wires.
  • #432
  • Oct 28, 2012 5:11pm Oct 28, 2012 5:11pm
been really quiet.. is it because of the daylight savings?

Quoting jplazard
Seems like a quiet day not looking for much tonight. I will see if any ASX or Iron news comes across the wires.
  • #433
  • Oct 28, 2012 7:05pm Oct 28, 2012 7:05pm
More support at 1.0343 for now. This is also related to the resistance of the US dollar index trading right into resistance.

You notice on this chart how the AUD did way better than the CAD against the USD. The Canadian central bank issued a statement that they would be watching closely. Here is partially what is reflected. Te economy is doing pretty good as employment figures have gone up. People buy homes. Household debt levels have risen tremendously. If there is a recession around the corner, people may be laid off and won't be able to afford their new mortgages. So the banks may increase their rates to dampen the incentive to buy. Whether they actually increase rates or not just by mentioning they are vigilant and ready to act look at what happened.

Of course United States is Canada's largest trading partner. So can we say the same analogy is true in Australia? China's slowdown is right at the bubble stage. So will next month show an increase and break the cycle? Watch out bears? Or will actual data which JP has shared shows an overdue obvious need for monetary policy adjustment? There is the tug of war!
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  • #434
  • Oct 28, 2012 10:53pm Oct 28, 2012 10:53pm
The Reserve Bank has built up more than $800 million in foreign reserves in the past two months, in a "passive" effort to weaken the Aussie dollar.
While avoiding outright intervention in the currency markets, RBA data shows that the central bank has accumulated $863 million in August and September, compared to the post-January 2010 pace of $54 million a month.
The increase of foreign reserves is seen as a way to put pressure on the buoyant dollar, easing some of the pain local export industries, tourism and retailers are facing.
"This can be viewed as a covert and passive intervention in the Australian dollar of modest proportions, but nevertheless is a clear signal of a change in the RBA's view and intentions," said ANZ foreign exchange strategist Andrew Salter.
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"The RBA is not actively attempting to influence the level of the exchange rate," he said. "But by electing to reduce additional demand for the currency in the market, it is 'leaning' against the Australian dollar's appreciation."


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz2AemTcQHb

  • #435
  • Oct 28, 2012 11:19pm Oct 28, 2012 11:19pm
US Stock Market Closed on Monday Morning due to Hurricane Sandy


8:15am CDT for Equity Index Futures Bonds at 12:00pm CDT. Other futures and forex trading as normal

Quiet day possibly tomorrow
  • #436
  • Oct 29, 2012 12:10am Oct 29, 2012 12:10am
When the Canadian dollar appreciated a few years ago the oil companies cried and complained because oil is sold in US dollars. That means they were actually making less because the price of oil had not changed in line and so selling oil at say $100 per barrel and then discounting that because the CAD was say for example 1.05 to the US dollar meant they were getting less for their sales. I remember after the Canadian dollar collapsed industry analysts noted that these companies did not buy infrastructure when price was in their favour.

So I think the AUD reserve took advantage of the strong Australian dollar not so much to weaken the AUD but to be ready to take advantage of the time when it will decrease.

BTW we had a substantial earthquake last night off our west coast that set off tsunami warnings in Hawaii. It effected internet access and speed. Thanks for the heads up. Probably means just channel trading. Besides it is Monday.
  • #437
  • Oct 29, 2012 3:48pm Oct 29, 2012 3:48pm
Very good points on the trade relations and how the RBA might be the first central bank to in a long time to stem off a collapse or at least a minor recession for several quarters. If China continues the slower pace of contraction I am inclined to look further into THEIR source and that is EUROPE. I look at it like this as the main and of course there are 'mini' branches with other economies but for the sake of simplicity I follow

Australia-(feedback loop)-China-(Feedback Loop)-Europe

If Europe is indeed behind us and we are at the extremes of the pessimism than it will make its way back to Australia with a cyclical lag of course. However in that time the markets always tend to go to the extremes before any significant Policy change or emergency measures are put in place.

If the new policy of the RBA is to lower interest rates and not sterilize their Auction operations this could be another attempt to force down the rate. But the name of the game as always where is the best place to put hot money and will it stay on given changes.
  • #438
  • Oct 29, 2012 3:49pm Oct 29, 2012 3:49pm
Tapped YTD HI/LO 618% (80.46) As the markets are closed this could break through if we open up on Wednesday at these levels EUR AUD could continue to slide.
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  • #439
  • Oct 29, 2012 4:25pm Oct 29, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting jplazard
......For now the market has filled QE3 announcement and maybe for a brief few days we the drug addicts of Hopium on stimulus are coming down off the high?

Question I still pose is what's really left to take us higher? all the CB;s are in and Draghi talk is no longer effective..This is what I love to see were coming back to what the market should be loooking at hard numbers and not relying on a central banker or minister or stimulus to drive our markets high.........Or some Fin Minister comes out with new stuff we have not heard yet......
WITH all due respect, those fracking bastard spawn can always come up with new stuff to say. never underestimate them. they can frack your shite up.

U.K. gdp is 4.1%. like i have repeated elsewhere...it is because of the queen's jubilee? the olympics? or all the slush of endless QE?

we will see how NFP acts this week.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #440
  • Oct 29, 2012 4:51pm Oct 29, 2012 4:51pm
There is no doubt in my mind that the markets get manipulated by misinformation. I track closely where the major stops probably are and they often get hit without any new major announcement. That being said there are other factors to consider. Here are some.

The Swiss National bank is committed to keeping the EURCHF at a high base at a sort of minimum of 1.200. Why is this? Well one factor is many mortgages in parts of countries close to Switzerland are in swiss francs. So if you owned a home and bought a mortgage years ago and had to pay that in francs and over a couple of years the value of the franc went up tremendously it would make it hard to pay that mortgage amount. So the SNB buys euros and sells francs to keep their base. Now they have a lot of euros. They sell euros and buy US and or AUD dollars and others as well.

I believe on top of that, but without evidence, that during the last G8 or G20 meetings, the US put forward an intention that they needed lower oil prices and a few other things to help with the economy. Part of that intention is to turn around the huge risk of a downturn in the world economy.

So we see lower oil prices going into NFP. But there is a storm on the horizon and it isn't named Sandy.
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