Australian Bear Raid

If looking for another way of looking at JP's reasoning I would rephrase to:
Whilst expecting a retrace he was more sure that long term, price would go down. Thus instead of risking missing out on the long term, larger move he held that position and simply added to it when price moved up in short term.

I wish I didn't have to disagree with you but you mentioned a couple of things in your posts I question.

"I agree that printing is going on everywhere but the more rates get cut the less attractive the carry trade becomes were talking pensions, corporates, commercial side. It could see a spillover affect but that has yet to be seen."
I believe this to be relative. Many of the countries in the world hold some AUD currency in their reserves as they do the USD and others such as the CAD. Since the CAD and AUD have never, and this can not be overstated enough, defaulted on their loans, with all the silliness in the two biggest areas (Europe and United States) with respect to printing money or guaranteeing something that is higher risk it entices these countries to diversify their holdings. To give you an example of this, Russia announced a while ago it would increase its reserve base with Canadian dollars. That means they would be selling something else to buy Canadian. This is also happening to the AUD.

Australia has not had to run deficits like Canada has for the past few years so if there were an argument for a stronger Australian currency this would rank right up there. It seemed this morning as though the markets were taking a little bit of cheer from last night's Chinese advance Manufacturing release showed that the recent slowing is... slowing. The sub-50 number (49.1) still indicates contraction, but was better than the 47.8 of the two prior months. Yet I have a hard time believing that given the lack of electrical use in China. Yet last nights data out of Europe indicated more slowdown.

Who knows what will happen with the fiscal cliff. I believe the US will chicken out of becoming more accountable with or without Romney. As far as a rate change by the RBA they should cut but if they don't the market will undoubtedly punish or should I say reward the AUD. The other thing to take note of is the banks have current information so if they see increasing exports, that have not been reported yet, they may hold off on a rate decrease.

So to me the other side of the coin, namely the US dollar is under pressure. I believe that this is because the country is bankrupt and just does not want to tell anyone so instead they assert they are buying mortgage backed securities when in fact they are recapitalizing the banks.

Syncopat,


Great points and you have prompted me to get a little something together on why I still believe Australia is a short ex china in the equation. i AGREE with you though that CB's are looking to diversify and AUD's have been attractive given their rating and health status compared to the majors.

i will put up on Saturday. This is good because i need to reevaluate how early I am in this stage of Australia short and see if the original Ideas I put this thread up are still valid. Don't worry I will have someone else edit and paragraph this next study the first one was terrible on the editing front from what I was told lol

Jp it just showed up...

End OF dAY after AAPL

i am now back at the previous line.

AMZN did not beat Aapl in 20min If they dont beat the Market is going to have a nice move lower tomorrow

O you JPL, you are a little rascal

Yeah you are much better than JPL in explaining I read you once, it's clear crystal, not like the JPL rascal.
More seriously, I replied to your post on the other thread.

Dab did sum it up very well and simplified it down. If anyone knows me I am that guy that can make something more complex than it really needs to be lol I am working on it though

That complexity can be good too. It is needed to understand much of what you research. The challenge is to transition between the complexity of the ideas you research and being able to explain them in simple terms to others. I'm not saying I have that gift as I don't yet understand many of the complexities!

Adding to Short here ES is heavy and if we are at these levels come NY aud/usd bulls watch out.

now short 17,000,000 from 15 looking for a follow through on Friday open

http://english.caixin.com/2012-10-25/100452177_all.html
Nice article

News from a couple days ago that I forgot to post

Olympic Dam shelving means costs in SA fall
Inflation Numbers and the possible Rate Cut
Iron Ore set to gain in Q4
Uranium Industry Years away down Under
http://ht.ly/eIrcn
http://ht.ly/eIroC

If history were any indication the short side is looking better heading into the weeks close http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post6130371

the big thrust ups have been followed with a nice wick or thrust down next day. And we just had one

The Weekly looks even more amazing if it becomes a wick

Do you think tonight's USA Advance GDP could be a game changer?

It seems like it could be as the markets are on there upper or lower end of their respective channels. Dollar for example is almost ready to break out of this consolidation here and ES has been as low at 1394 now hitting sells below 1400 this could be huge tomorrow. AAPL failed to keep the market up but GDP if worse than exp will see dollar soar to 618 retrace and ES aud risk in general will get hit even harder

This will give aud/usd A nice weekly pinbar to end on Friday which will be bad for the week and few days going into RBA cuts if they follow through

Added short on Futures side
The lack of follow through on ES and AUD/USD gives me more conviction we are going to be range here into NOV RBA from there if a cut comes We are going to retest the lower levels back in early October

Technical trade setup in AAPL separate from macro view BOT Next weekly exp 615 @ 2.93. Stop loss set at 590
Looking for SL to get out or EOD on ES is we trade below 1400 and look to close below I will get out.

SYDNEY (Standard & Poor’s) Oct. 25, 2012–Standard & Poor’s Rating Services said today that it has revised its outlook on the Australian State of New South Wales (NSW) to negative. At the same time, the ‘AAA/A-1+’ issuer credit ratings on NSW were affirmed. The outlook on the government’s financing arm, New South Wales Treasury Corp (TCorp) was also revised to negative, and the issuer credit ratings were affirmed at ‘AAA/A-1+’.
“In our view, there are increasing pressures on the New South Wales government to increase its investment in infrastructure,” said credit analyst Claire Curtin. “These capital expenditure pressures, combined with our view of the state’s moderate budgetary performance, lead to our opinion that NSW’s budgetary flexibility may become increasingly challenged. The negative outlook reflects our view that there is a one-in-three chance of a downgrade in the coming 24 months, based on our view that NSW’s budgetary performance could weaken and might not provide NSW with the capacity to undertake its infrastructure program while managing to contain its debt burden.”
The ratings could be lowered if the state’s operating performance continues to weaken and does not provide NSW with the capacity to undertake its infrastructure program while managing its debt burden. The ratings could be revised to stable if there were a demonstration of revenue flexibility either through a strengthening of own-source revenues or profitable asset sales, thereby allowing for greater capital investment without increasing the state’s debt burden.
“We view NSW’s budgetary performance as moderate, reflecting the state’s after-capital-account deficit, which is in excess of 10% of adjusted operating revenues. We consider its cash operating performance to be good, averaging a surplus in excess of 5% of adjusted operating revenues, but risks are on the downside.
The ratings on NSW reflect our view of the strong institutional framework governing Commonwealth-state relations in Australia, as well as NSW’s wealthy and diversified economy, positive financial management, excellent liquidity position, and exceptional access to global funding markets. These strengths are offset by moderate budgetary flexibility and performance, reflecting both a challenging revenue environment and an increasing need to address the state’s infrastructure backlog.
Despite slow growth over the past decade, we view NSW’s economy as strong and diversified, and supportive of the ratings. Per capita income is high, at about A$60,000 per year, and represents about one-third of Australian GDP. Growth has lagged the national average, as NSW has had only limited exposure to the mining boom. The financial services sector is the largest industry contributor to the economy, at 13% in fiscal 2011.
We consider that NSW’s financial management as having improved over the past 18 months, including tighter revenue and expenditure management and closer monitoring of government business performance; but we also consider that long-term issues of sustainable infrastructure investment will continue to challenge the government in the delivery of solutions to long-term issues.