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Channel surfing!

  • #221
  • Oct 26, 2012 6:07am Oct 26, 2012 6:07am
Quoting Imagine FX
OK TMoney you're hitting on all cylinders now. I've watched you bank hundreds of pips in the past few weeks from a couple of variants on the Channel Surfing method. Frankly many of those trades were not looking solid from my current set of indicators and yet they went ahead and hit your targets again and again (and yes, I sat on the sidelines for waaay to many of them just watching).

I'm looking at the EUR/US trade and wondering first how are you setting targets and 2nd how are you predicting future price movements? Are you using fibs to project...
Thanks for the kind words Imagine. I speak with a lot of traders each day, some extremely successful and some not so successful. The one thing I always go back to is trading is "Art - Not Science". So the answer to your questions is. All of the above. I set my targets based on past supply and demand areas. If you look at the EURUSD trade we had nice demand sitting at 1.2905. In my eyes that was a great area for price to head to. Price will move between major supply and demand levels until those levels absorb all imbalances and create more supply and demand. For the entries, I focus really on 2 ways. Look for the 1-2-3 and wait for a move back to the "shift point" after the 1-2-3 and take the trade. You can also simple use the 50% retrace of the 1-2-3 like you said. The 50% retrace trade is less risky (tighter stop) but you might miss a few trades. If you look at the EURUSD trade it came right back to the trend shift and sold off from there.

Hope this helps and I hope you can start pulling the trigger and making some money!
  • #222
  • Oct 26, 2012 8:50am Oct 26, 2012 8:50am
Quoting tmoney5474
Thanks for the kind words Imagine. I speak with a lot of traders each day, some extremely successful and some not so successful. The one thing I always go back to is trading is "Art - Not Science". So the answer to your questions is. All of the above. I set my targets based on past supply and demand areas. If you look at the EURUSD trade we had nice demand sitting at 1.2905. In my eyes that was a great area for price to head to. Price will move between major supply and demand levels until those levels absorb all imbalances and create more supply...
I want to make clear that the 50% retrace entry is based on a 50% retrace of pivot -3... not 1-3. If we get a 50% retrace of 1-3 a lot of times that indicates the trend was broken with a close lower or higher then pivot 2. So again, its a 50% retrace of 2-3.

Hope this helps.
  • #223
  • Oct 26, 2012 12:21pm Oct 26, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting tmoney5474
I want to make clear that the 50% retrace entry is based on a 50% retrace of pivot -3... not 1-3. If we get a 50% retrace of 1-3 a lot of times that indicates the trend was broken with a close lower or higher then pivot 2. So again, its a 50% retrace of 2-3.

Hope this helps.

Yes, understood, thanks Tmoney. Any setups on your radar for next week?
  • #224
  • Oct 26, 2012 2:17pm Oct 26, 2012 2:17pm
I've got one. Looks like AUS/US may be setting up according to original rules for a short next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUS_-_US_10-26-12.png Size: 65 KB
  • #225
  • Oct 27, 2012 3:45pm Oct 27, 2012 3:45pm
Quoting Imagine FX
I've got one. Looks like AUS/US may be setting up according to original rules for a short next week.
Great find! I'll post setups I see tomorrow!
  • #226
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:45am Oct 28, 2012 12:45am
There is a lot of crap on FF but this is a really good thread. Keep the good work up!
  • #227
  • Oct 28, 2012 3:24pm Oct 28, 2012 3:24pm
GBPUSD looking to set up! Look to buy at 1.6035, SL 1.5935 (really wide but hopefully we can get a higher pivot to raise the SL), TP 1.6135.

NZDJPY - Long at open 65.45, SL 64.60, TP 66.30
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #228
  • Oct 28, 2012 4:42pm Oct 28, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting tmoney5474
GBPUSD looking to set up! Look to buy at 1.6035, SL 1.5935 (really wide but hopefully we can get a higher pivot to raise the SL), TP 1.6135.

NZDJPY - Long at open 65.45, SL 64.60, TP 66.30
I had heard some other comments along these lines but this is the first time I've seen a major difference between your channel data and mine. I'm definitely using the same indicators as you are so I have no clue as to why this might be happening. Here's what my indicators are showing for those same GBPUSD and NZDJPY charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-28_1439.png Size: 55 KB
  • #229
  • Oct 28, 2012 6:11pm Oct 28, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting Imagine FX
I had heard some other comments along these lines but this is the first time I've seen a major difference between your channel data and mine. I'm definitely using the same indicators as you are so I have no clue as to why this might be happening. Here's what my indicators are showing for those same GBPUSD and NZDJPY charts.
NZDJPY channel did shift higher at the open. Its no longer a valid trade because its above the Midline. Mine looks like yours now. It looks like your GBPUSD chart is showing the 4H channel. Change the timeframe of the channel to 1440 with 240 bars.
  • #230
  • Oct 28, 2012 8:02pm Oct 28, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting tmoney5474
NZDJPY channel did shift higher at the open. Its no longer a valid trade because its above the Midline. Mine looks like yours now. It looks like your GBPUSD chart is showing the 4H channel. Change the timeframe of the channel to 1440 with 240 bars.
Thanks Tmoney. I do, however, have those same settings on the GBPUSD chart. I'll just keep an eye out for differences in future charts as I have no explanation for the discrepancy at this point.
  • #231
  • Oct 29, 2012 7:46am Oct 29, 2012 7:46am
If your wondering what a perfect trade setup looks like, take a look at the picture. Daily uptrend, under the mid line, big move after the "trend shift" and a strong move back into the trend shift right into demand! I LOVE IT!

Long GBPUSD1.6035, SL 1.5900 (for now), TP 1.6130.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #232
  • Oct 29, 2012 6:59pm Oct 29, 2012 6:59pm
EURGBP Long 80.45, SL 80.15, TP 80.75
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #233
  • Oct 29, 2012 7:01pm Oct 29, 2012 7:01pm
GBPCHF setting up for a short. Look to short 1.5030, SL 1.5070, TP 1.4950.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #234
  • Oct 29, 2012 10:40pm Oct 29, 2012 10:40pm
Quoting tmoney5474
GBPCHF setting up for a short. Look to short 1.5030, SL 1.5070, TP 1.4950.
Thank you Tmoney, got 'em.

So the GBPCHF is a good example of where you seem to be predicting that price will retrace to a certain level. Is it just through analyzing SupDem levels that you're able to "predict" these moves?
  • #235
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:16am Oct 30, 2012 5:16am
Just logged on and saw your GU trade.. Nice lookin so far.

juicyt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #236
  • Oct 30, 2012 6:47am Oct 30, 2012 6:47am
Quoting Imagine FX
Thank you Tmoney, got 'em.

So the GBPCHF is a good example of where you seem to be predicting that price will retrace to a certain level. Is it just through analyzing SupDem levels that you're able to "predict" these moves?
Correct!
  • #237
  • Oct 30, 2012 7:39am Oct 30, 2012 7:39am
Hi,Tmoney;
What is your zigzag parameters?
I use lenght :12
Pcfilter: 1 Am I right?
  • #238
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:25am Oct 30, 2012 8:25am
Quoting ardasu
Hi,Tmoney;
What is your zigzag parameters?
I use lenght :12
Pcfilter: 1 Am I right?
I use 10, 0. The reason is becasue I want to catch all true swing highs and lows. Remember, its trend 101. Higher Highs, lower lows. The indicator isnt perfect but its good. I use my eyes to spot trend reversals also but the indicator with those settings will catch most of the valid ones.

Thanks
  • #239
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:55am Oct 30, 2012 8:55am
GBPCHF didn't quite retrace completely but it's moving to target nicely. EURGBP is also looking to hit your target. And GBPUS is also headed in the right direction, +43 pips or so right now.

Once again, nice work Tmoney! I have spent a lot of time on these forums and don't think I've seen such consistent wins to date as this thread. Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
  • #240
  • Oct 30, 2012 9:49am Oct 30, 2012 9:49am
GBPUSD hit 1H supply at around 1.6080. This pullback might go down to around 1.6050 or so.
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