Seriously... Is the lack of activity due to the US Election? | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Seriously... Is the lack of activity due to the US Election?
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Seriously... Is the lack of activity due to the US Election?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 24, 2012 10:40am Oct 24, 2012 10:40am
Is the lack of price movement on the big Dollar-matched pairs primarily due to the election?

I've been looking through the daily charts and it seems that on the E/U, A/U, and U/J pairs, the daily movement from high to low seems to be dominated by days in which price just doesn't move that much. On E/U and A/U that means days with low-to-high movements of 100 pips or less...with the U/J that means days with movements of 50 pips or less.

Is the entire world on hold until after the election?

If so, how do you guys think the market will react is Obama is re-elected? How will it react if Romney is elected?
  • #2
  • Oct 24, 2012 12:42pm Oct 24, 2012 12:42pm
no its not because of them.. its because the last couple of weeks has been forming compression waves across most long term time frames.. for resumption of long term trends
  • #3
  • Oct 24, 2012 12:57pm Oct 24, 2012 12:57pm
I don't see any lack of activity.
  • #4
  • Oct 24, 2012 1:49pm Oct 24, 2012 1:49pm
This is really important to pay attention to.

How many times have we observed a compression pattern such as a symmetrical triangle or a wedge, on an intraday time frame. What inevitably happens? A breakout which is usually the start of a large move.

So, when this begins to happen on the longer time frames such as daily and weekly... better pay attention!

Lots of money is about to change hands in a big way very soon, you can bet on that!

Stay safe out there...

-fighter
  • #5
  • Oct 24, 2012 2:44pm Oct 24, 2012 2:44pm
Another poster here drew my attention to this tool. Found it an excellent way of doing some comparisons/analysis;

http://www.forexticket.us/en/tools/02-01-volatility

Real situation is less clear as it seems very mixed across currency pairs.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #6
  • Oct 24, 2012 8:58pm Oct 24, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting fx111
I don't see any lack of activity.
You're joking right? Pull up any dollar-matched pair on the daily charts. Look at behavior before the new year....then look at what happened after the new year.

Last year (last FEW years in fact) it was pretty clear that more than 50% of the trading days in any given month were in excess of 100 pips with a large percentage of those days being in excess of 180 pips.

Something happened after the first of the year. Things changed on a dime. Now the majority of the days are less than 100 pips top to bottom with days in excess of 180 pips being rare. 200 pips days are limited to one or at best two per month.

Now, it might just be a coincidence, but why the very sudden and identifiable change after the 1st of the year? In fact, 2008 all the way through 2011 had months dominated with big days. Then after the 1st of this year that just stops? It just seems more than coincidental to me.

If things blow up on Nov 7th after the election is decided I'm coming right back here to do a big, fat I-told-ya-so.
  • #7
  • Oct 24, 2012 9:31pm Oct 24, 2012 9:31pm
I keep asking myself the same thing. Volume seems to have really slowed down. Check out the ATRs, most are going lower.

I see the wedges in the EURJPY and CHFJPY on the weekly chart. Take a look at a weekly chart of the AUDJPY it has been in a range for over two years. Next week the BOJ meets maybe they well provide some kind of game changer. Although I really doubt that. It's the BOJ we're talking about.
  • #8
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:33pm Oct 24, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting FXAssassin
If things blow up on Nov 7th after the election is decided I'm coming right back here to do a big, fat I-told-ya-so.
lol
Fuck Forex Factory.Wake up people.
  • #9
  • Oct 25, 2012 3:37am Oct 25, 2012 3:37am
Indeed, ATR is just above May lows on E/U daily. I think it's just the crisis, markets still don't know whether they're coming or going.

Quoting FXAssassin
You're joking right? Pull up any dollar-matched pair on the daily charts. Look at behavior before the new year....then look at what happened after the new year.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #10
  • Oct 25, 2012 4:00am Oct 25, 2012 4:00am
The carry trade is one cause of low volumes due to the lack of interest rate differentials. That leaves risk as the main driver, where we are in wait and see mode regarding the Eurozone as well as global growth potential.


Quoting fx111
I don't see any lack of activity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HSBC-vol-Oct-24.png Size: 42 KB
  • #11
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:39am Oct 25, 2012 5:39am
I suppose there are some high chances for this suggestion.
I mean, think about it: For now tThe United States of America has found itself over 16 trillion dollars in debt.

I've got this one from the news:
"After an election, there can be a renewed sense of hope and freshness. In history we see that since the election of 1976, there have only been 2 election years that stocks fell. The year 2008 was one of them because of the financial crisis.Though the outlook for the dollar is arguably positive, there is certainly political uncertainty in the air.

The thing about uncertainty for the U.S. Dollar is that: uncertainty attracts people to the Dollar! I think that the direction of the United States Dollar also rests on whether or not the Fed adds more money to the quantitative easing plan. Another note, Mitt Romney and his VP Paul Ryan are strongly against QE3."

So I think we must be very careful till the day X.
  • #12
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:40am Oct 25, 2012 5:40am
Quoting FXAssassin
You're joking right? Pull up any dollar-matched pair on the daily charts. Look at behavior before the new year....then look at what happened after the new year.

Last year (last FEW years in fact) it was pretty clear that more than 50% of the trading days in any given month were in excess of 100 pips with a large percentage of those days being in excess of 180 pips.

Something happened after the first of the year. Things changed on a dime. Now the majority of the days are less than 100 pips top to bottom with days in excess of 180 pips being...
I believe the smaller movements are due to HFT.

The regulators are cracking down on the Quants in the equities area ( spot and futures) so they are migrating to forex and other less regulated markets.

With the proliferation of algo trading the volatility as we are used to tend to change. The moves tend to be more in small chunks so the market appears to be more flat. than you have the big crashes with algos going nuts.

This kind of market behavior really messes up the way my system works,but things are the way they are and we have no way to change it. So the only way is to adapt or die
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #13
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:13am Oct 25, 2012 9:13am
Quoting -nate-dogg-
The carry trade is one cause of low volumes due to the lack of interest rate differentials. That leaves risk as the main driver, where we are in wait and see mode regarding the Eurozone as well as global growth potential.
Nate...so what that graph is saying is that the lower volatility is the norm and the last few years have been the exception? That just sucks.
  • #14
  • Oct 25, 2012 10:54am Oct 25, 2012 10:54am
Quoting -nate-dogg-
The carry trade is one cause of low volumes due to the lack of interest rate differentials. That leaves risk as the main driver, where we are in wait and see mode regarding the Eurozone as well as global growth potential.
Very salient point, never considered that. It makes perfect sense as interest rates are the main driver of capital gains on currency speculation.
  • #15
  • Oct 25, 2012 11:52am Oct 25, 2012 11:52am
Since the market is forever changing you must make the best of it and keep in mind a positive view. Keeping an open mind on the market behavior will help make better decisions in the long term

Cheers.
  • #16
  • Oct 25, 2012 12:55pm Oct 25, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting FXAssassin
You're joking right? Pull up any dollar-matched pair on the daily charts. Look at behavior before the new year....then look at what happened after the new year.

Last year (last FEW years in fact) it was pretty clear that more than 50% of the trading days in any given month were in excess of 100 pips with a large percentage of those days being in excess of 180 pips.

Something happened after the first of the year. Things changed on a dime. Now the majority of the days are less than 100 pips top to bottom with days in excess of 180 pips being...


You are absolutely on point! Thought I was the only one not happy about the sudden change. Can't wait for a return to the pre-2012 days
From the tips to the dips, it's all about the pips
  • #17
  • Oct 25, 2012 2:16pm Oct 25, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting FXAssassin
You're joking right? Pull up any dollar-matched pair on the daily charts. Look at behavior before the new year....then look at what happened after the new year.
........
If things blow up on Nov 7th after the election is decided I'm coming right back here to do a big, fat I-told-ya-so.
Its really not that rare we go through periods of low volatility and high volatility a lot. You go up the stairs but you go down in an elevator.. volatility builds like potential energy going up, when you go down the volatility is usually explosive ... since everyone it trading this market like things are back to normal it makes since.. even tho there is a lot of looming problems.
  • #18
  • Last Post: Oct 25, 2012 9:53pm Oct 25, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting theforexpert
You are absolutely on point! Thought I was the only one not happy about the sudden change. Can't wait for a return to the pre-2012 days
Looking at the graph on the first page though, you have to wonder what type of pre-2012 days. As I said before, 2008 throuhDec of 2011 had lost of price movement. Before that though? Look at that long, long line of low volatility just like what we're seeing now.

Since 2008 was the kickoff of a the Great Recession, it would seem that if one wanted to see price moving a lot on intra day charts you'd have to start hoping for another collapse or another crisis of some type. Of course, I don't know how we could withstand another major hit right now. It might be the case that you'd made a ton of coin riding the market up and down four or five times a day and then find out at the end of six months that the Million you made is now worth nothing because the Dollar failed and it was the failure that created the circumstances in which all that money could be made.
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