GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Could you please attach the indicator to show : Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph that you are using .
Thanks

here is cable box playing range, almost equal to the pip min 1st target is 5987

i have one more number for cable its 6085, its valid till tomorrow, after that that will be invalidated 50%

GL

my cable target met closed at 5987 euro$ short at 2996 stop 3042 first tp 2945 and if we get bull strength i will buy only if 2940 not broken

TSAR where are you man????

Hi all weekly target for gu still valid 1.5673xx

Cable got Potential Break @ Upper TL or Higher in Price 1.6162

Euro got Potential Break @ Upper TL or Higher in Price 1.3034

Euro Slide Continues, Dollar-Bloc Resilient

Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 6:38 AM
Marc Chandler

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iP7E4Ew4n1...%2Bfuneral.jpg

The US dollar is broadly mixed. The euro continued its sell-off. With today's losses, it has shed nearly 2 cents since last week's high. The Swiss franc has been dragged lower by the single currency. The dollar-bloc is resilient as participants have second thoughts about the trajectory of policy, especially in Canada and Australia. Sterling is also showing some resilience as doubts about extending QE in early November have crept in, despite poor data.

Disappointing PMI data and a weak IFO survey ensured follow through selling of the euro in the European session. The flash October manufacturing slipped to 45.3 from 46.1 in September and defied expectations for a small improvement. The flash service reading ticked up ever so slightly to 46.2 from 46.1. The consensus expected a larger bounce. This produced a composite reading of 45.8, down from 46.1 and is the lowest since June 2009.

Recall that in the flash report only preliminary German and French data are available. Germany’s report was noticeably weaker than France’s and this was underscored by the IFO survey that saw deterioration in both the assessment of the business climate and expectations. Markit, which conducts the PMI survey, opined that the German PMI is consistent with not only a contraction in Q3 but also in Q4. This is stark contrast with the Bundesbank’s optimism that the euro area’s largest economy expanded in Q3.

The dollar-bloc is generally firmer today. The Australian dollar has been bolstered by three considerations.

First, the HSBC’s China flash manufacturing PMI increased to 49.1 from 47.9. While still below 50, the continued recovery strengthens ideas that world’s second largest economy may have troughed on Q3 and this is seen as positive for the Australian economy and dollar.

Second, Australia reported higher than expected Q3 inflation and this spurred talk that the RBA may in fact not cut rates when it meets in early next month as many expected. Headline inflation was reported at 1.4% after 0.5% in Q2. The Bloomberg consensus called for a more modest rise to 1.1%. More importantly, the RBA’s trimmed mean reading rose to 2.4% from 2.0%.

Third, we recognize a high level of M&A activity that may also be helping to explain the Australian dollar’s resilience. Such deals include a Chinese and US companies seeking to boost their presence in Australia as well as an Australian company selling a US-based project. The top three deals amount to around A$4.5 bln.

Separately, we note that the Bank of Canada’s comments yesterday following its decision to leave rates on hold was not as dovish as the Governor seemed to suggest last week. Although time before the economy reaches full capacity was pushed out from the middle of next year to the end, the need to remove some accommodation continued to be recognized. In addition, another issue was highlighted and that was that household borrowing needs to be curbed. Today’s Monetary Policy Review is likely to highlight these same issues.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will most likely leave its official cash rate on hold at 2.5% at Thursday’s meeting, the first in which the new governor, Wheeler will preside. There is some risk of a softer tone given that 1) inflation is near 13-year lows, 2) persistent currency strength and 3) the weaker domestic economic trajectory. The New Zealand dollar is trading at one-month lows against its Australian counterpart.

The market may also be having second thoughts about the Bank of England simply extending its gilt buying program when the current operation is complete next month. This may help account for sterling’s modest strength, which coupled with euro’s weakness has seen the cross break below GBP0.8100 for the first time in more than a week.

Note that the first estimate of Q3 GDP will be released tomorrow and the three-quarter contraction likely ended. While the BOE’s King underscores his commitment to provide additional support to the economy if needed, he also recognized that price pressures may be above target into next year. The BOE’s Dale also seemed to place more emphasis on the funding for lending scheme. Nevertheless, the dismal CBI industry trends survey (-23 in Oct from -6 in September and defying expectations for modest improvement) warns that the growth in Q3 is a bit of a fortune economic fluke and the UK economy is hardly out of the woods.

1.62xx could be a realistic target. IMHO.

Rising Volatility, Euro Out of Step

Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 8:36 AM
Marc Chandler

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rqEQbi68wg...%2Bcoiling.jpg

We have highlighted the contradiction between the low implied volatility and the large number of event risks on the horizon. To us, it looked like a spring coiling. The resolution, we anticipated, would be in favor of higher volatility, and we appreciated that there was a directional bias. Higher volatility would likely, we thought favor lower equities and euro and a stronger yen.

We have been right and wrong. The S&P volatility, captured by the VIX has increased markedly. When we first began building our case, the VIX was trading at the lower end of where it traded this year (near 14%). Yesterday, it rose above 19% to reach its highest level in nearly 3-months. This took place as the S&P 500 shed about 4% in four sessions.

It is not just some disappointing earnings, but it is also the poor future guidance that took a toll. Technically, the uptrend line drawn off the early June low has been convincingly violated. The 38.2% retracement objective of that uptrend comes in near 1395 now and the 50% retracement is nearer 1370. On the upside, resistance is seen in the 1433-1435 area.

The 3-month implied yen volatility has moved higher, but it has coincided with a weaker yen not a stronger one. The multi-year low in yen vol was recorded on October 10 near 6.55%. It has firmed nearly every day since then to reach 7.30% yesterday and today.

The higher volatility coincided with the dollar rallying around 2.6% against the yen to JPY80, a level not seen in more than three months. Contrary to what we previously thought, if the dollar stalls out here near JPY80, implied volatility is likely to come off as participants recognize the likely persistence of a range affair.

The euro stands out as the exception. Three-month implied euro vol hit new multi-year lows yesterday near 8.23%. Although it is a bit firmer today, the underlying market view seems to be that it is stuck in a range roughly $1.28 to roughly $1.32. A break of that range may be necessary to see an increase in volatility.

A few days ago we noted that the correlation between the euro (and a number of other currencies) and the S&P 500 had lessened in the recent period. We go a step further here and look at the correlation between the VIX and euro volatility. The 60-day rolling correlation rose to 9-month highs in early September near 0.65 It has since come off sharply, falling below 0.42.

In the same vein, we draw your attention to the pricing of 3-month euro risk reversals. Recall, that put-call parity states that puts and calls equidistant from the money should trade for the same price. To the extent they don't shows a market bias.

At the low point in mid-May, 3-month euro puts were at a 3.5% discount to euro calls. At first the buying of euro calls for protection of short euro positions and then the short squeeze in the euro spot market saw euro calls rally relative to puts. At the end of last week, euro calls were at their smallest discount to euro puts in roughly two years (-0.58%).

The euro's recent slide in the spot market has seen the risk reversals, well reverse, and now appear to be trending back in favor of puts. In fact, today the discount for calls is increasing, and may violate the 20-day moving average on a close basis for the first time since early September.

This dovetails with our view that the relief rally in response to European officials promising to do everything they can to save the monetary union project and the euro has largely run its course. There have already been press reports indicating that some medium-term investors have already begun taking profits on peripheral bond purchases made on the back of the removal of the extreme tail risks.

Multi Levels for EURO in H1 time frime

Thursday October 25, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

Multi Levels for POUNDS in H1 time frime

Thursday October 25, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph

Thursday October 25, 2012

Dynamic Trend : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from H4 to M1 time frime
Daily Dynamic : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from D1 to D4 time frime

BEFORE... Posted in The Really Useless Thread
H1 Chart Picture in above #119127 Oct 23, 2012 11:17am
H4 Chart #119125 Oct 23, 2012 10:58am

AFTER...
H1 Chart in bellow

BEFORE... Posted in The Really Useless Thread
H1 Chart Picture in above #119127 Oct 23, 2012 11:17am
H4 Chart #119125 Oct 23, 2012 10:58am

AFTER...
H1 Chart in bellow


MEMO :
Missed in Calculation !
CABLE go UPWARD Started Price 1.5913

A Few Notes on FX

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 8:20 AM
Marc Chandler



The US dollar is trading heavily after yesterday's mini-reversal, with a stronger than expected UK GDP report allowing sterling to lead the charge. The UK reported a 1% rise in Q3 GDP over Q4. The consensus was for 0.6%-0.7% expansion after three quarters of contraction.

The news, coupled with recent comments from BOE's King, have dampened expectations for a continuation of the gilt purchase program when the current operation is complete next month. The gains in sterling have been sufficient to take out the downtrend line drawn off the year's high on the first day of autumn, Sept 28 and Oct 17. It comes in near $1.6135 today. A close above there, especially tomorrow, on a weekly basis, would be a very constructive sign. The next immediate hurdle is near $1.6175, but the positive technical impulses suggest potential back toward $1.6300.

That said, fundamentally, we are not convinced that the GDP report heralds the end of the UK economic woes. There is a statistical fluke related to the number of working days in Q3 compared with Q2. Also, more austerity is in the pipeline and the UK's biggest export market is in recession.

Meanwhile the dollar has pushed through the JPY80 level and is trying to establish a foothold, off which it can test the June high near JPY80.60. News reports from Japan continue to play up the likelihood of another extension to its asset purchase program. The problem with that narrative that nearly every one and their sisters are talking about is that the BOJ has been engaged in QE for several years, which has generally failed to arrest the yen's gains or deflation's grip on the economy.

Perhaps the story is more basic. Contrary to reports that the carry trade is dead, which means that interest rate differentials are not an important consideration in currency movement, the US 10-year premium over Japan is near 106 bp, a level seen once since early May. The widening spread is a function of the rise in US yields not Japanese. Over the past month, the US 10-year yield has risen 17 bp, while Japan's 10-year yield is off 1 bp.

Similarly, the 2-year differential, which even the BOJ has acknowledged, tracks the dollar-yen rate, is moving above 20 bp, which it has done only a couple of times in the past six months.

Elsewhere, we note that although Sweden's Riksbank did not cut rates, as we had previously thought was likely (before the Governor threw cold water on the idea last week), it did lower the trajectory of rates, suggesting that rates will remain low for longer. This was enough to send the krona to new 3 month lows against the euro.

The euro itself bounced smartly off the $1.2920 yesterday and pushed to almost $1.3025 in the European morning. It has since stalled, but is holding a trend line on the hourly bar charts and provided the $1.2980 area holds, look for the euro to challenge the highs again. The $1.3070 area is the next important technical hurdle.

Lastly, in our weekly positioning and technical note, we pointed out that the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average for sterling in mid-September. The same moving averages (called the golden cross or death cross, apparently depending on which side you are on) are on the verge of crossing in the euro--today or tomorrow-. The same averages look set to cross in the Swiss franc early next week. We have found this is the most favorable sequence: sterling leads the euro and the franc confirms it. However, in our fundamental view, the dollar is carving out a bottom after trending lower for the last several months.

HI ALL,

Short GU 1.6117 SL 1.6150......

cheers

Nice Setup, Bro http://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/good.gif

http://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/drink.gif

hi all,

Euro lite fx index D1 with the negative divergence ... PA below the BRN and failure break the upper channel.....let see next week if the valid reversal signal...

cheers

Euro I'll watching closely next week ....

cheers