Growing bet size

after sorting out techincalities of how to win, i am now in process of growing bet size agressively. Doing ok and came to a pont where motivation is down and putting on smaller recreational trades which chew into profits. To get back on track will use this thread to record my trades including stop movemets and take (partial) profits until my desired size is reached. I have only 1 rule. Increase size with profits. dont hold your breath for next trade as it is rougly 1x per month.

Enjoy watching me struggle or envy me when prosper :-)

trade will be posted in real time, usualy entered limit order with stop. winners can run up to couple of weeks. Mainly currencies but may be some index trade. hope thats ok.

Sounds good. Have you considered the "optimal f" rule for calculating how much to reinvest from your profits? I started once but it's too much maths. But if you have only a few trades a month, this could help you achieve exponential growth.

no, dont use it any formula for size. I am discretionary and my size is determined by psychological factors and strength of signal.

I tried size formulas but did not work. If size is too smal I lose focus and then lose trades
bet around 10% of account. I will do even more, of course only from profits. Have to increase bet size another 3x before slowing down rate of increase ( maybe not possible and will have to keep growing or quit)

Oh that statement could be taken "other" ways.....

My apologies sir, it's Friday, it's late, I'm tired and when I saw this, my mind just slipped into the gutter and ...... I couldn't resist!

haha.

it is more truth relevant to trading in what you highlighted than we care to admit.

buy nzdjpy first lot 6350, then 64, then 6450

no position yet. looking for a break. it is august after all. august was bad for me. have played and lost. i trade when i get urge but size is small enough not to damage my account too much. Alternative to be fully disciplined does not work for me as it builds inside and do stupid thing with large size instead.

I have to pay to stay sharp

no trade in nzjy because no break.

Trade 2

sell euad on tl break on 4h close around 12260. rethink if price reaches 12390 first. close on friday 12340 or so.

finally got my break. entered a bit late at around 12317 stop 12382. half size as some large news around the corner and stop is now uncomfortably small.

i was wrong on direction.

however, exited early, before german ruling booked + 0.4 risk. impossible to squeeze more as i only followed this particular trade on 4hrs bars. idea was to be ahead enough before ruling to stay in which was not the case.

market has changed fundamentals on the news.

My method currently not striking goals. At least I am not clocking losers. ytd up around 27%. That is little better than break even considering I bet 10% per trade. This particular one was half size.

maybe something to do with low volumes anyone is complaining about.

this past week 2 signals. both to buy aud. euad sell 125, exited break even or so. Other buy audusd full size order missed for 30 pts. Looks like volumes still not there. getting a bit wary of my long bias. however, spread between aud and resources/china is on extreme level and still expect major upswing in aud/resources.

why dangerous to short aud & when QEs at work

gold production in tonnes

Country 2011 Output 2010 Output

1. China 380 341
2. Australia 272 260
3. U.S. 243 236
4. South Africa 221 209

chinese able to increase output 39T, au and SA 12T in 1 year. Pretty good chance that increase can be larger in a year if prices up more. Tonne gold is 58M at current prices which equals 14B for AU of new real currency out of nowhere each year.

surpassed high point in account with last trade buying adjy at 8000 and got finally rid of 'i am really good' thinking.

Mainly trading aud against jpy on long side.

here is my equity this year. last dip is 'i am really good' problem. however, i identified it and traded small. Now I am back.

sell aud 1.0445 stop 1.05.

will double up if acts properly.

order not executed. adus now at 10360. Removed. end of week.

i think my mindset now is in a good shape. Ready for new challenges.

smaller win in audusd. bought at 10250 as a daytrade. extended a bit my account size. I use these trades as funding trades - to pay for losses when big one fails. I think aud is strong.

based on statistics of my trades i will change approach regarding size. So far, conviction trades risked 10% of my account. Although have seen in last 30 trades largest loss 0.8 risk, with average loss 0.2 risk, i know that somewhere down the track, there is streak of multiple consecutive full losses. been there done that. I do not decrease the size. so 10 losses, i am done.

New approach will be to risk 5% per trade, and if feedback from first load positive, add to position so that total again will not go over 5%. I always use stops.

However, I still reserve option to go in with full 10%, and then add up to 10% if warranted.

In last 2 weeks had 2 good trades after multi month dry period. I think markets will start behaving my way, finally

still have to triple my bet size. So far managed to triple. so half way.

have shorted usjy just above 80 and been partially filled. Exited quick win. Position was too small to bother much. Adding as per my rules would not work as price too far. However, sell signal still on. looking to reshort.

this may be biggie.

usjy came back above 80 to high before announcement.

took small loss.

back to sidelines and neutrality and reasses.

up to date performance of the system. Note that size was increased around 3 times and this is from 1 broker as another one should be similar pattern. I have added third one that handles futures. I figured, futures provide important info as well and fairer swap rates and one can get filled on limit order spread free.

I am not happy with exits, and currently relying on high entry win rate to keep it up. Have to get exits improved. I know how i have to do it but it is really hard..... This is my next task at hand. The largest screw was exit for slight profit on usdjpy on 2/4/12 at around 77 where i missed 700 pts in straight line hh hl sequence.

also note that this year is not good and have number of signals that are not filled. That is why i do not bother posting signals. Only 1 in 5 is actually done. No idea what is going on, but at some stage things will change. However happy with the system performance so i am hoping for better times.

Also note that I wary size more than 100:1 and most of trades are just junk. One can see where the real moves in equity are. 80 % of return was made in 1 month.