Australian Bear Raid

PMI: new orders are up and reading this also makes me think if we were to see continued contraction it would have to come from a selloff in US equities than a spillover into Europe and then World markets. As for this reading it gives a short squeeze argument some merit at current levels

Also read this http://ht.ly/eIrcn

Dollar Index reaction to this release is very light but its still early. Any follow through would come from London/NY for now it is still looking to ES

S&P has retrace a bit more than 5% since the 1468 top so if we trade lower like May than there could be a continued slowdown in output and growth from world economies. On the other hand RBA Nov is what I am concerned about and we are right around the corner. If no cut I will most likely sell out completely and not wait for 1.05

Nice cheers

Yes electricity and rents have been an issue for quite some time, Rent prices are a natural phenomenon as we let more and more people into the country and allow foreign investors to occupy real estate of which they have no other interest but to profit. Just a natural supply demand effect. If you talk to any real estate agents they will tell tales of large lists of sellers but no buyers. Prices are inflated.

Electricity seems to just be getting worse and worse, where I'm from anyway.

Cindy thank you for that I see what your saying i visit this Australia Property forum from time to time and they are loving Australia as if its the next roman empire from a real estate perspective. That is interesting it is always good to speak with ppl on the front lines rather than studies and economist who don't live in the country thank you all

Will put the full line back on after NY or until we get to this level. Looks like a short cover might come again!!

Covered 20 on futures looking to reestablish once we get to the upper levels again. Right now though China PMI is a big changer for me and I need to see the US stock market sell off some more forcing Europe Spreads to widen again and this will continue the contraction in China.
I don't want to be heavily short or long on this at the moment as the hole in my short argument is not as solid as a day ago. Looking for RBA cut in nov if that does not come well I will most likely flat AUD and start operations on Dollar short increase. Then reshorting AUD again back around 1.06

Dollar barely reacted to the release (still early) watch ES tomorrow for confirmation on a short squeeze.

Otherwise looks like the range play is still intact in dollar index sell at the top range buy at the 786.
I have been short since the last range level at 80.125 i might add short here to range this again and actually take profit this time as it ebbs lower

Posco's Q3 sales dropped 10.6% year on year; bad news for Australian iron ore & coal miners if such a trend continues

Dollar sell stop placed at 79.95 for the range play mentioned earlier
short -2 since the inital entry at 80.125 some time ago.

Jan-Aug China steel industry profit down 53.4% compared to a year earlier, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

Thanks.
Not sure that I fully understand your answer, but that's normal I'm smart but not very quick So I'll come back, read it again, and few weeks months later I'll come back again and read it again etc....

That would be great, and appreciated.
Thanks.

bought falling knife (i love it) yesterday at 10250. feedback was positive. aud is strong.

in my opinion, RBA wants to send a message to market and it is: no crack at this point.

also property will hot up. One can observe great number of cranes building residential property in sydney. i think, next level of printing globally will be felt with force. aud will be up because printing in au is less than elsewhere.

RBA wants a lower rate and they have stated that many times.

New home buyers are not as robust and yes I agree the more rates are cut the more housing bust will be delayed. Credit is subdued and retail is suffering on this rate.

I agree that printing is going on everywhere but the more rates get cut the less attractive the carry trade becomes were talking pensions, corporates, commercial side. It could see a spillover affect but that has yet to be seen.

If the RBA does not cut in Nov they have affectingly turned a 180 from the October policy and are comfortable with the rate at current levels going int fiscal 2013

Looks like if we have a Daily close below 618 ytd hi/lo and the recent wave down close below 50% the range is set going into the next meeting.

If you believe the RBA will cut in several days going short at 1.04-1.0435 with a tight stop at 1.0450 is optimal. or at current levels with a stop a bit above 1.04 going into the week of.

If you think they will hold going long at 1.04 with a stop at 1.0365 for a move back to 1.06 is not a bad RR either

You would have to see huge number from AAPL and follow through on es tf for a reversal of risk on Gold/Oil/Copper/Palladium ect than AUD/USD will be at the top range of the sell area at 1.04-1.0435 (for me at least)

that was a great trade though you bought right at the confluence support of fibs you had alot of support there

RBA is concerned about international economies and growth for sure but they are more concerned domestically when it comes to the interest rate sensitive sectors who have been suffering and now its starting to show in their revenues. Mining/Banking/Housing can do well but Manuf/Retail are increasingly making their frustrations known and they matter also when it comes to consumer behavior and more importantly credit

JP, do you think the iPad mini will hurt APPL next earnings report after tomorrow's? I have a feeling that price may go up to 665 or 700, but ultimately, I feel it's going to 420-440 where the gap is from the 13.87 earnings report.

after each launch of a new product heading into the next gen aapl is up. Ppl will be watching as always ipone sales anything less than 20mil is a disappointment

on technicals 597 is a 50% retrace on ABC since the top and if we breach that level 3points im out quick. Then from there next buy for my would be a reversal fib at 584

I am going in if we get that level on some weekly calls as for OTM or ATM watching Deltas day of

nice pin hourly on Futures
au