Australian Bear Raid

how much slippage did you get on this one ?

My system fired sell signal 10445, but no fill. at least i exited aujy longs.

gl with your position trade.

about 4pips 9:44-9:49 was filled intbetween 1.0350 partials but the whole fill was about 4pips

THE federal government has slashed spending by $4 billion to reach a forecast surplus of $1 billion this financial year, which is $500 million less than forecast at the May budget.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politi...#ixzz29z0hss00

It's Canberra's surplus fixation, not China's economy, that could push the Reserve Bank into cutting interest rates again on Melbourne Cup day. The bi-partisan rush to fiscal rectitude is doing more to weaken demand here than softer growth in Asia.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/surpl...#ixzz29z1lwUMV

S&P mainly Yahoo earnings saved the bearish reversal Appl and the hopium of more electronics will create a nice follow through. But the Channel still is intact for S&P as well as Dollar. This is PURE NOISE and a micro aspect that concerns AUD/USD very little. Of course with Indicies and certain commodities coming back on risk in the final hour AUD/USD will push with it.

Everyone should take note of today if you want to become a position trader. Micro items like this will reverse a move on a drop of a hat so you NEED to pick levels where you position entry is ok for adverse moves like this (for me I have been in last RBA cut and Added the next legs at 1.04 1.0410 1.0350) so the hype will fade. B. This is micro news but remember the traders and dealers can control the price for a day maybe two but the underlying trend and Fundamentals always reasserts themselves.

ES has been saved for now

Dollar should come back down a bit to the 78.6 or into a new flag range here.

This is not AUD/USD strength considering we were trading down heading into NY close before Yahoo this is ES strength/Dollar weakdness end of day. Untill the channel breaks for the upside/downside in S&P and Dollar AUD/USD bulls are going to get overly optimistic with every 20pip rally heading into RBA nov meeting.

This will be an interesting week as the oversold s&p from friday looks to come back. With Yhoo saving the market today AAPL being oversold and their announcement tomorrow and Dollar overbought on a H4 basis this could get AUD/USD to test upper levels.

Dollar looks to be doing a Cup and handle pattern starting this week if it fails we would drop below 78.6 and again the question becomes will be close below it on a weekly.

S$P driven by tech this week so any indicator will come from the reporting companies.

AUD/USD has Friday resistance up ahead at 1.03353 if we break that sideways consolidation we have here than the next logical area would be the
10/8 bottom (1.0149) to the most recent hi (1.04105) 78.6 @ 1.0354

Still have orders at 1.0420 1.0435 I might have to move them lower to get filled but we will see what the middle of the week brings its still early and typically volume is highest on WED/THURS

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1349755743

14 more days...14 more days until my short 'Framework' will be tested and we either
A. get a cut sending us lower and the real question comes in will foreign capital flow start to ebb or will it stay strong.

B. No cut and AUD/USD will break what I consider the last major resistance at 1.0450 from there the next test high would be the 1.06 range.

All i care about is the econ numbers, Overbought/Oversold levels, and rate differentials.

RBA's Ridout

 

1. Says structural changes not just in A$-affected sectors.
2. Says A$ above parity been a struggle.
3. Says A$ been a good shock absorber for economy.
4. Says A$ has done a lot of heavy lifting for RBA.
5. Australia housing probably bottomed.
6. Hopes housing industry will bounce back.
7. Unemployment heading slightly upward.
8. Says Australia mining boom softer not over.
9. Contained inflation during boom means healthy economy.
10. Says monetary policy has not lost its power in Australia.
11. Says rate policy hasn’t lost its teeth.
12. Says does not expect a hard landing in China, but risk is greater than 6 months ago.
13. Says speaking for herself, Not on behalf of the RBA.

Nice! Hope RBA Cut the rate again but that will depend on tmrws CPI index. Am i right?

If when we get to next RBA decision a 25pt cut is already fully priced in am I right to assume there will still be some impact? ie Diminished as already priced in (speculators) but some due to change in carry trade?

Dab that is correct the carry trade and the Msupply will be a factor after this next cut. I will be watching the flows from trade on the private/Public sector to see if there is much affect

THE high cost of operating in Australia is discouraging investment in the country's abundant natural resources, an executive at BP said today, joining a growing chorus of executives from international energy companies.

"Australia is an expensive place to do business and it is getting more expensive," Paul Waterman, president of BP's Australasian operations, told a business luncheon in Melbourne. "It is not getting dealt with."

Spot iron ore prices were firmer, backed by hopes Chinese mills would continue running plants at or near full capacity, although a sustained decline in steel prices could force some mills to limit inventories of the raw material, capping further price gains. The most active rebar contract for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 0.7 percent to 3,707 yuan ($590) per tonne by the midday break. It hit a session high of 3,746 yuan earlier, its loftiest since Aug. 13. Sellers of foreign iron ore cargoes to China upped prices by a dollar per tonne on Tuesday, according to Beijing-based consultancy Umetal. That followed a spike of nearly 2 percent in the price of benchmark 62-percent grade iron ore to a near two-week high of $117.50 on Monday, based on data from Steel Index. But deals were scarce so far on Tuesday, traders said, reflecting hesitation among buyers in chasing prices higher in the face of still sluggish demand for steel from end-users. "I'm quite cautious in the short term," said Mark Pervan, head of commodities research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, who expects iron ore prices to reach $110 by the end of the year, down 21 percent from end-2011. "Chinese growth doesn't really start warming up until the second half of next year. The political change is going to be a priority in China for the next three to six months," he said, referring to Beijing's leadership transition that kicks off next month.

Taiwan: Taiwan based China Steel Corporation, an organization that deals in steel metal products is eyeing Australian Iron ore and coal resources. It is even more hopeful of winning the resources from Australia since steelmakers from China, Japan and South Korea will be bidding together with the corporation.

In his recent interview, President Sung Jyh-yuh of the steel corporation said that the company has identified Australia, Africa and Brazil as the main targets of the acquisition process. Sung hopes of acquiring the iron-ore mining stake this year at least, if not the coal. He said, “We will certainly see a better second half of this year”. However, he also added, “But downside risks are the euro-zone’s debt crisis, China’s measures in curbing speculative demand in the property market and the reconstruction progress in Japan following last year’s earthquake.”

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post6076635
PnL since the Bottom peak on 10/812
On spot I was short 2,700,000
Futures I was short 35C’s
I was open profit of 76K and some change when we peaked at the bottom than said I expect us to be higher as the next RBA cut comes down the line where I will be selling at the top area again. Sold at 104 10410 10350 HEAVY and now like I said last time this minor move will pale in comparison to WHAT IS COMING. And this PnL will PALE IN COMPARISON TO WHAT IS COMING.
Someone asked me why when the market was moving back up to the pre cut levels did I not take my money off the table and it made me think of that old man in Reminisces of a stock operator and he said why don’t you know it’s a bull market. Well I will say well don’t you know it’s a bear market
pnL after this move lower.

we should hover around these areas for a day or until the next risk on off dilemma comes into the pic

Um... You just made $128,000 in 4 days. 2 of which were the weekend.

I think I want your job