Australian Bear Raid

It wouldn't surprise me if the Euro summit mentions something that startles the marketplace into a bearish frenzy. On the other hand the greedy bankers may continue with the strategy of 'pretend extend' which in the short term may continue this bullish rally. The Spanish 10 year bonds closed at 5.46%, down on the day, which is usually good for bets against the dollar. I say this because often the EURUSD moves the same direction as the AUDUSD.

Wait one more thing.

Isn't there an election that needs the market place to look resilient and positive?

Lol yes that will be interesting and not to mention the 25th anniversary of Black Monday in October generally a bad month. Cmon tradition

Curious as to why you see low 1.05s as last line of defence when the last two highs on daily timeframe (early Aug & mid Sept) were low 1.06s?

Open air between the major fibs

YTD Hi/LO
Last Year Hi/LO
6/1 bottom to recent HI ------------All show areas of confluence near 1.04-1.0440. I say 1.05 because that is a stop loss I don't expect us to get near that unless a cut in Nov does not happen. However if we break this barrier(s) the resistance point is not heavy for another push up to 1.06.

I think Merkel just gave us a catalyst. Look at ES not liking that

Waiting for NY open for a direction but this area up to 1.04 i might have to pay lower. Still have the shorts at 1.04-1.0435 but we will see how the end of this week shapes up

Syncopat,

you could be right on the EU summit

w/o even pulling fibs onGBP.USD I can see that the paitence would pay off shorting only at times where RSI is overbought and the dealers spike to the channel high where you place various sell limits. If you missed that you could of had another entry say Week to date simple upper trendline once it breaks and CLOSES below on hourly you open a short setting your stop loss as BE or above the downward channel for a move lower. It it fails and the trade does not succeed your out at BE and move on to the next one.

Dealers control the game during asia most of the time and chop/false spikes occur often to play others market participants hands.


This is for a friend on here and is not intended on my analysis on going long or short GBP as I dont trade GU never have its too strange for me when it comes to the fundies.

i stooped trading gbp when my stop skipped 57 pts in futures on some stupid official remarks.

however, i am lurking out there and looking for a sweet revenge.

UK acts like a big hedge fund.

It is very strange and when it moves it really moves!!! I never like the vol on GU plus that market is strange given their fundi outlook although they are doing quite well this year on data also

Filled on 2,000,000 thus far at the spike here at 1.04

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6109058#post6109058
its time!!!


This reminds me of Top gun

filled on another 2,000,000 at 1.0410

ON daily RSI AUD/USD we crossed above 70(overbought) I set to 80 though for extreme overbought.

Lets goooooooooooooooooo

Dollar is as heavy as it could be but fib support is just below we will see if it holds or not.

Picture this scenario.

ES trades to the top of the range here by Friday to close at the highs but does not take out a new high

Dollar trades just to 78.81 but does not take it out

AUD/USD sitting in the danger zone (top gun type of night lol) at 1.04-1.0440 by week end. Then next week sets in motion what could be a move lower.
But hey its only Thursday lol

Good luck guys! Many pips to come!

PnL going into this zone. 2,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 still have not been filled at the levels stated previously. With the RBA cut positions still in place and the dollar short in place. Reduced 3c's on Futures which was a mistake they will be put back on.

At my peak from the short bottom set on 1.0149 i was up over 70K and now am down. Those who ask why not take the Profit I am a position trader and that move will pale in comparison to what is coming. I pretty much have a full line now on AUD/USD and 1.05 is my Stop loss. Waves happen and vol is always greatest in a trend change so level picking and sticking to your guns needs to prevail in order to not be scared out of a posiition.

Soros is a great mentor if anyone can withstand pain for a bigger framework its that man. His concept that volatility is greatest during trend changes will always be with me

New York is on my 6 i must shake them

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/CN/CN_TRD.html

will try to get 1 for aud aswell.

Still have strong feeling that 8nov china launch also somekind of qe to boost there economy..