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Australian Bear Raid

  • #261
  • Oct 17, 2012 1:56pm Oct 17, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting jplazard
A mixture of a framework I have on Australia the waves I expect and even anticipate so when I was at the peak profit I asked myself 'Are you so convinced Australia is going to have a big shift lower in 2013 that your willing to let this profit go to flat or even a negative piling on again at the wave top? or are you unsure and will take what you can get? I went with the former.

I stated when this position was first established several pages back that this position will be held for several months for a macro move lower given the string of cuts>coming...

I completely understand JP. I am more of a Swing Trader which is why I would have a hard time mentally doing what you do.
  • #262
  • Oct 17, 2012 1:58pm Oct 17, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting jplazard
at 1.05 I am wrong for the record so ppl dont think I have an unlimited amount of funds and not a stop loss.

I assure you if I loose in this macro trade I WILL cut almost 10% from my account.
I was just about to ask you where your limit is...

I hope for your sake that it does not get to 1.05!
  • #263
  • Oct 17, 2012 3:16pm Oct 17, 2012 3:16pm
i am out of aud longs. made couple of $ and hit new high in account. But my timeframe is shorter.

neutral and reassesing.. JP, you sure have a point. however, i would like to see banks drop, this would be real sign of weakness ahead. AU is plagued by all sorts of stimuluses right now in strategic spots.
  • #264
  • Oct 17, 2012 3:21pm Oct 17, 2012 3:21pm
JP I closed out my longs from 1.0220 on AU at 1.0368... large profit... I also closed my longer term shorts from 1.0575 and 1.035X when the signal was given for the break at the 1.0275....

To the topside some significant areas are the 0396/0410/ 0422/ and the major area for a continuation of the downtrend is the 04327/04439 zone in my book.... above that is the last line of defense at the 0500/0514/0529

I for one will be buying dips and NOT be looking for anything but counter trades short until the 4Hr TF rolls over


CNY data today could rock the house too

Good luck my friend. I am sorry to hear about you letting your winner turn on you.
  • #265
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:01pm Oct 17, 2012 4:01pm
On dollar.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post6108987
  • #266
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:29pm Oct 17, 2012 4:29pm
I have been waiting almost 2weeks for a new entry short..

Waiting on China though
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  • #267
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:46pm Oct 17, 2012 4:46pm
Limit Positions placed. SL 1.05 for ALL the shorts including the ones placed in the last rate cut.
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  • #268
  • Oct 17, 2012 8:35pm Oct 17, 2012 8:35pm
SellStop position incase the news is exceptionally bad. Hoping for a spike upwards in my sell zone but will take the downside also.
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  • #269
  • Oct 17, 2012 8:56pm Oct 17, 2012 8:56pm
Quoting jplazard
A mixture of a framework I have on Australia the waves I expect and even anticipate so when I was at the peak profit I asked myself 'Are you so convinced Australia is going to have a big shift lower in 2013 that your willing to let this profit go to flat or even a negative piling on again at the wave top? or are you unsure and will take what you can get? I went with the former.

I stated when this position was first established several pages back that this position will be held for several months for a macro move lower given the string of cuts>coming...
Thanks for the information! Always enjoy reading your stuff!
  • #270
  • Oct 17, 2012 9:07pm Oct 17, 2012 9:07pm
going through the report now but interesting to note

China Electricity usage is running 1/2 of last 5 yrs >> WEAK >> REAL DATA
  • #271
  • Oct 17, 2012 9:20pm Oct 17, 2012 9:20pm
Data is on track and looks to be in line or better. ON production and retail still looking what is the major driver there could be a one off or a start to a new trend.

Not horrible data but still consecutive declines. I will admit though the government did intentionally step on the breaks problem is did they do it on an Ice road
  • #272
  • Oct 17, 2012 9:25pm Oct 17, 2012 9:25pm
From the AU Treas:


Treasury’s top economic forecaster has conceded that commodity prices have fallen by more than the government expected in the May budget, reducing the expected pace of Australia’s resources investment boom.
“There’s no question commodity prices have come down by more than we expected at budget,” executive director of Treasury’s macro-economic group (domestic), David Gruen, told a senate estimates hearing in Canberra on Thursday.
Dr Gruen said falling commodity prices had triggered “some pullback in some high profile investment projects.”
“We were at budget expecting truly extraordinary rates of growth to continue in resource investment,” he said.
“So the scaling back means there’s no question that our assessment now is that resource investment will not grow quite as strongly as we previously thought – but we are still talking about very high rates of growth.”

  • #273
  • Oct 17, 2012 9:39pm Oct 17, 2012 9:39pm
On Futures: That is a Gap that will fill question is when???
The last line of defense for the Bears on Futures is 1.0366
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  • #274
  • Oct 17, 2012 10:24pm Oct 17, 2012 10:24pm
On futures we just tapped 618 from YTD HI/LO @ 1.0348

now trading at 1.0342 some heavy sells. This means nothing until a daily close below comes in

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post6109644
  • #275
  • Oct 17, 2012 11:01pm Oct 17, 2012 11:01pm
if your long AUD/USD look for confirmation from ES on a breakout higher otherwise the shorts will come back into the market soon.
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  • #276
  • Oct 17, 2012 11:13pm Oct 17, 2012 11:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post6109572

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post6109644
Rejection so far but its still early. When real volume comes in the market lets see if 61.8% on the daily can hold.

Also its worth noting those watching AUD/USD the 9/14 high 1.06238 and the 10/8 low 1.0149 the 50% is 1.0386 a daily close below this is not a bullish sign
  • #277
  • Oct 17, 2012 11:14pm Oct 17, 2012 11:14pm
you back in states already?
  • #278
  • Oct 17, 2012 11:28pm Oct 17, 2012 11:28pm
on my way home using the laptop/phone here and there
  • #279
  • Oct 17, 2012 11:48pm Oct 17, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting jplazard
going through the report now but interesting to note

China Electricity usage is running 1/2 of last 5 yrs >> WEAK >> REAL DATA

Aye, Zerohedge noted this, lol.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...-7-gdp-reality
  • #280
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:21am Oct 18, 2012 12:21am
Keeping spreadsheets on raw data helps show trends
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