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Silent Service Method

  • #14,721
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:29am Oct 15, 2012 10:29am
Quoting stewrigh
Why are you $ bullish V - With QE4ever I find it very difficult to buy the dollar
Simply because there is so much shit going on around the world. It certainly isn't Dollar strength per se. However, the most important thing I have been doing is buying physical silver, and will for as long as I can see going forward.

As for the markets, I still believe the metals are the best trade at the moment, but there will be a pullback or two coming. All dips should be a buying opportunity. It certainly is in the physical markets.

As for the paper markets, I think the volume must be very low at the moment. The CNBC reporters spend a good chunk of time everyday asking "When will the retail investor come back?" They aren't going to, and I suspect that CNBC knows this.

The large volume of the retail trade came from baby boomers, all of which are either retired, or close to it. If the stock markets are suffering, there is no reason to think the FX markets aren't either......
  • #14,722
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:33am Oct 15, 2012 10:33am
To add to what Chris said, from a purely technical perspective, the dollar is indicating at the very least, a temporary bottom in place. I have been wrong before, but it is rare to see the daily lie about an indicated direction.

The last swing low was a HL, and the last swing high was a HH.

As long as we keep forming those HL's... i'll be bullish. But like I said, I have been wrong before and will be again. But it's just what it's saying right now.
  • #14,723
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:07am Oct 15, 2012 11:07am
Quoting clockwork71
Simply because there is so much shit going on around the world. It certainly isn't Dollar strength per se. However, the most important thing I have been doing is buying physical silver, and will for as long as I can see going forward.

As for the markets, I still believe the metals are the best trade at the moment, but there will be a pullback or two coming. All dips should be a buying opportunity. It certainly is in the physical markets.

As for the paper markets, I think the volume must be very low at the moment. The CNBC...

Yep me too
  • #14,724
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:09am Oct 15, 2012 11:09am
Quoting clockwork71
This can work, however, I would suggest that perhaps you look into options if you wish to do that. You could sell calls and puts outside of the range.......
Yeah I been thinking of that too, but I just need to understand them alot more first.
  • #14,725
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:11am Oct 15, 2012 11:11am
Quoting Venice
To add to what Chris said, from a purely technical perspective, the dollar is indicating at the very least, a temporary bottom in place. I have been wrong before, but it is rare to see the daily lie about an indicated direction.

The last swing low was a HL, and the last swing high was a HH.

As long as we keep forming those HL's... i'll be bullish. But like I said, I have been wrong before and will be again. But it's just what it's saying right now.
Are you looking at the dollar index? - I guess if WW3 takes off the dollar will fly.
  • #14,726
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:18am Oct 15, 2012 11:18am
Quoting stewrigh
Are you looking at the dollar index? - I guess if WW3 takes off the dollar will fly.
My only thing is, I hate this waiting time... just tell me if I am right or wrong already so I can switch my bias as needed.

The first nuke to fly will be... interesting. Pretty sure regardless of what your holding, it will all be for naught

Food/water/safety will then be where demand lye's.
  • #14,727
  • Oct 15, 2012 12:51pm Oct 15, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting Venice
My only thing is, I hate this waiting time... just tell me if I am right or wrong already so I can switch my bias as needed.

The first nuke to fly will be... interesting. Pretty sure regardless of what your holding, it will all be for naught

Food/water/safety will then be where demand lye's.
And silver eagles lol
  • #14,728
  • Oct 15, 2012 7:07pm Oct 15, 2012 7:07pm
Gotta tell you. I'm not feeling very confident in my dollar bias right now. I really hope the market can at least tell me to switch directions here soon. Seems like it just keeps getting pummeled. I'll start throwing some long orders in as we start approaching the lows here... but sometimes you have to needlessly pay the risk in the name of your system.
  • #14,729
  • Edited 8:42pm Oct 15, 2012 8:12pm | Edited 8:42pm
At the risk of sounding like a bit of a tool, I am a little puzzled by the 'need to trade' theme in the recent posts. Just sit on the side if you do not like the action, its way less stress than wishing a trade up or down. Being flat is a position. Do something fun, go for a surf, play some golf....anything....take a break.....life is bigger than the markets....you guys know this.

As far as limited opportunities go I disagree somewhat, have a look at the commodities markets, there are some great setups at the moment and some solid moves happening. I know it requires more $ (not sure what size stake you guys have) but there is definitely money to be made there.

Not trying to sound like a high school teacher but there is no need to risk capital if you hate the action in front of you....that's for the newbies......

Enjoy your days off gentlemen...
  • #14,730
  • Oct 15, 2012 8:20pm Oct 15, 2012 8:20pm
pipbull... it's not so much a need to trade... it's my system telling me what it is. If I am going to pick and choose the entries upon what I already know is a positive expectancy system, it sabotages the stats.

I just am in a whiny mood this week Lack of sleep and stress at work, tis all I'll switch around the attitude a bit... hehe.
  • #14,731
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:20pm Oct 15, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting mypipbull
How did you hold this short from 5th July to close out in profit recently?
Did you really put a 540 pip stop loss in place?
The risk/reward on that trade looks a little sick to me......then there is the swap...ouch.
http://screencast.com/t/syR9cjkhjJ My 1st short entry at 0.98960 was way to early I def jumped the gun.Thinking 1.0000 would be the turning point. But after further analyzing the trade I realized that 1.03500 at the 61.8 Fib was the number that really meant something. So my 2nd entry was spot on perfect at 1.02594. Both trades had the 1.04364 SL so yes there was a 540 pip SL on the 1st entry with a 385 pip final profit. And that was not optimal But as I said it was the wrong entry point. The 2nd trade had about a 177 pip SL for a 769 pip profit that's over 4 x the SL & seems pretty good to me. All in All if your not under capitalized you can afford to put your money where your mouth is.And let a trade or 2 get away from you in the interest of learning something. The trade taught me to wait for optimal entry and also gave me additional confidence in my technical analysis. So it was well worth it for me to let it run. The only reason I took profit was the swap. Because ultimately Its going to go lower.
  • #14,732
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:39pm Oct 15, 2012 9:39pm
Quoting Venice
pipbull... it's not so much a need to trade... it's my system telling me what it is. If I am going to pick and choose the entries upon what I already know is a positive expectancy system, it sabotages the stats.

I just am in a whiny mood this week Lack of sleep and stress at work, tis all I'll switch around the attitude a bit... hehe.
Sticking to your plan.....can't argue with that.....
It's healthy to have a whine and normal to lose sleep and be stressed at work chin up old son, you'll will be right!
  • #14,733
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:05pm Oct 15, 2012 10:05pm
Quoting TheBodyguard
http://screencast.com/t/syR9cjkhjJ My 1st short entry at 0.98960 was way to early I def jumped the gun.Thinking 1.0000 would be the turning point. But after further analyzing the trade I realized that 1.03500 at the 61.8 Fib was the number that really meant something. So my 2nd entry was spot on perfect at 1.02594. Both trades had the 1.04364 SL so yes there was a 540 pip SL on the 1st entry with a 385 pip final profit. And that was not optimal But as I said it was the wrong entry point. The 2nd trade had about a 177 pip SL for a 769...
Hi BG,

I'm not having a go however, I'm assuming you widened your stop on the first position to have it end up where it did. That is a dangerous game indeed, lucky you were proved right.

It's great you learnt from the trade as that's what its all about.

The biggest lesson in this trade IMHO is position sizing.
Your 4R reward came from 12.5% of your total position, that's unfortunate.
If you have a nibble early it should always be with a vastly reduced position size. Stating the obvious but if the position sizes were reversed the profit would have been vastly improved.

Hope all goes well with future trades.
  • #14,734
  • Edited 11:27pm Oct 15, 2012 10:06pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting mypipbull
At the risk of sounding like a bit of a tool, I am a little puzzled by the 'need to trade' theme in the recent posts. Just sit on the side if you do not like the action, its way less stress than wishing a trade up or down. Being flat is a position. Do something fun, go for a surf, play some golf....anything....take a break.....life is bigger than the markets....you guys know this.

As far as limited opportunities go I disagree somewhat, have a look at the commodities markets, there are some great setups at the moment and some solid moves happening....
Good reminder MP - I just get frustated watching the markets go sideways for weeks and it's more about following trades I'm already in rather than looking to enter.

You're right about commodities too - crude oil is good.
  • #14,735
  • Edited Oct 16, 2012 12:48am Oct 15, 2012 10:27pm | Edited Oct 16, 2012 12:48am
Quoting mypipbull
Hi BG,

I'm not having a go however, I'm assuming you widened your stop on the first position to have it end up where it did. That is a dangerous game indeed, lucky you were proved right.

It's great you learnt from the trade as that's what its all about.

The biggest lesson in this trade IMHO is position sizing.
Your 4R reward came from 12.5% of your total position, that's unfortunate.
If you have a nibble early it should always be with a vastly reduced position size. Stating the obvious but if the position sizes were reversed the profit...

As The trade got ready to plow thru my initial SL on the 1st trade and I took a closer look at it. I moved the SL to reflect my new thinking and then I placed the 2nd entry and let them both run. In retrospect the nibble should have been 1st then the Bite (or better yet just wait and be patient for the entry). But with my other account I took a larger position at the 1.02594 mark set the SL @ 1.04364 and things went well for me. I just don't feel like a screen shot of that trade or account is prudent here. So I let you guys peek at the trade with less than a full lot. Thanks for your thoughts on my trade its all part of the ongoing process.
  • #14,736
  • Oct 16, 2012 7:08am Oct 16, 2012 7:08am
Did I say the markets were going sideways? - Anyone trading the Swissie lol
  • #14,737
  • Edited 9:12am Oct 16, 2012 8:39am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting stewrigh
Did I say the markets were going sideways? - Anyone trading the Swissie lol
lol.... whoooooosh. Here we go for decision time. Time to validate/invalidate my $ bull bias.

Usually what I do here is i'll start to look for strength on the lower time frames... 1h or so. So that even if I am wrong, the risk is reduced drastically for the same reward that the daily offers.
  • #14,738
  • Oct 16, 2012 12:36pm Oct 16, 2012 12:36pm
Well guys, looks like I got turned completely around this week. It happens...
  • #14,739
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:25pm Oct 16, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting Venice
Well guys, looks like I got turned completely around this week. It happens...
Does that mean ur dollar bear now?
  • #14,740
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:32pm Oct 16, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting stewrigh
Does that mean ur dollar bear now?
Just in time for it to rally.
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