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  • #1,201
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:38pm Oct 13, 2012 4:38pm
well

I think actually your fundumentals guiding your predictions then the technicals.



Quoting morob
It will breake either uptrendline or downtrendline

I bet it will be downtrendline
  • #1,202
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:38pm Oct 13, 2012 4:38pm
.
Quoting stevewalker
guys & gals

poll important.

it will give us a general outlook of how we think for the expected next big move

do please vote

TY.
  • #1,203
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:43pm Oct 13, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting stevewalker
.
Check the home page steve, the poll has already been taken and the results are in.
Attached Image
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,204
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:43pm Oct 13, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting Magix
Long term outlook...

If you take the yearly chart, and by yearly, I only mean going by the last 52 weeks, you can have a look at the direction of trade. Double this up to the last 104 weeks, and you get a second picture.

Your long term seems to be a bit more of a current skew than long term analysis.
Just to add my opinion, we will 23.2% ~ 1.2600 fib before Spanish bailout then 61.8% ~ 1.3400 after bail out request.
  • #1,205
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:50pm Oct 13, 2012 4:50pm
Hi Magix

thank you.

but those trades also include Grid Trades or Price averge entries.

if we could see

Avg. Short Price & Distance From Price
Avg. Long Price & Distance From Price

then we could say something.

but without knowing that , live trade data does not mean much.

we can partially see which % is going to burn with the reverse move




Quoting Magix
Check the home page steve, the poll has already been taken and the results are in.
  • #1,206
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:52pm Oct 13, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting ainaedil
Just to add my opinion, we will 23.2% ~ 1.2600 fib before Spanish bailout then 61.8% ~ 1.3400 after bail out request.
The 2 charts I have posted were actually the poster children for Fibo trading...(see what I did there?)

Wanna see the third?

Lets take the last 104 weeks, or the last 2 years. Check out the extended chart on the fall back...161.8 forecast for a double tap at support, only thing, that support is at a buck sixteen...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: conv.jpg Size: 47 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,207
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:55pm Oct 13, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting stevewalker
you definetly expect a down move to D1 lower TL
Not sure. The weekend mixing things as you said before in some of your posts. Gap or not and such.... Will we have a gap for a new support/resistance......

I think a small retrace and then up.....not all the way to D1 trendline directly. First upper D1 trendline, but a little down before that. 2915ish may be the key to up/down. Lets see how it behaves there.... If up, then up to D1 flag trendline and down again. And up from the flag trendline.....

Anyway it goes I will be prepared...

  • #1,208
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:57pm Oct 13, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting Magix
The 2 charts I have posted were actually the poster children for Fibo trading...(see what I did there?)

Wanna see the third?

Lets take the last 104 weeks, or the last 2 years. Check out the extended chart on the fall back...161.8 forecast for a double tap at support, only thing, that support is at a buck sixteen...
I think we will all know if I am correct or not, if the next time you update your MT4 broker charts, your new trade popup looks like the following:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mt4.jpg Size: 48 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,209
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:59pm Oct 13, 2012 4:59pm
ehh

then we use pending order for long


nice one
Quoting Magix
I think we will all know if I am correct or not, if the next time you update your MT4 broker charts, your new trade popup looks like the following:
  • #1,210
  • Oct 13, 2012 5:04pm Oct 13, 2012 5:04pm
PM steve
  • #1,211
  • Oct 13, 2012 5:05pm Oct 13, 2012 5:05pm

Quoting morob
PM steve
  • #1,212
  • Oct 13, 2012 5:20pm Oct 13, 2012 5:20pm
Hey Steve,my view is that as long as we hold 2750
we'll see 3500 within 4 to 6 weeks,maybe even sooner.
Any weekly close below that level and
for me all long bets are off.
I might be completely wrong but apart
from intraday scalping i can't see any reason
to be short this pair.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,213
  • Oct 13, 2012 5:26pm Oct 13, 2012 5:26pm
Hi jezek5

nice to see you visitng here.
please keep visiting time to time & put some input.
will be appriciated.

I also think it will move up. agree with you.

monthly chart is narrowing moutain from top & we have flat bottom.

I have two reasons;
- they will fix issues at € zone. this way or that way.
- even if itis going to break 1.20x it should go up through 1.35x

Quoting jezek5
Hey Steve,my view is that as long as we hold 2750
we'll see 3500 within 4 to 6 weeks,maybe even sooner.
Any weekly close below that level and
for me all long bets are off.
I might be completely wrong but apart
from intraday scalping i can't see any reason
to be short this pair.
  • #1,214
  • Oct 13, 2012 6:49pm Oct 13, 2012 6:49pm
good morning (3.25 a.m.)

in long term in my opinion we have a pretty similar formation like in summer 2010. I think the chance that we see €/$ of 1.20 is below 20%.

my favorite scenario for the next weeks
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just do it
  • #1,215
  • Edited 2:28am Oct 14, 2012 2:14am | Edited 2:28am
Quoting jezek5
Hey Steve,my view is that as long as we hold 2750
we'll see 3500 within 4 to 6 weeks,maybe even sooner.
Any weekly close below that level and
for me all long bets are off.
I might be completely wrong but apart
from intraday scalping i can't see any reason
to be short this pair.
Agree with You on this completely
  • #1,216
  • Oct 14, 2012 2:20am Oct 14, 2012 2:20am
I think it is better to wait till next daily candle starts forming before making any predictions. When making predictions subconsciously later trader might make wrong decision based upon his opinion and not what market is doing.
trader needs some point of reference to make decisions regarding how price acts relatively to that point of reference and relatively to previous candles and price levels.
I use MA's as point of reference.
  • #1,217
  • Edited 3:09am Oct 14, 2012 2:31am | Edited 3:09am
if that some strange type traders would see you profile probably they even dont read your posts. becouse for them # post & # of vouch is the key.

but you thodie illusurate a good beak out scenario. it may be wright/wrong. this not our dicussion.

well done

Quoting thodie
good morning (3.25 a.m.)

in long term in my opinion we have a pretty similar formation like in summer 2010. I think the chance that we see €/$ of 1.20 is below 20%.

my favorite scenario for the next weeks
  • #1,218
  • Oct 14, 2012 2:52am Oct 14, 2012 2:52am
.
Quoting stevewalker
guys & gals

poll important.

it will give us a general outlook of how we think for the expected next big move

do please vote

TY.
  • #1,219
  • Oct 14, 2012 3:11am Oct 14, 2012 3:11am
thanks walker,

thats the point. i´m not saying it goes up, i´m expecting it to do so.
In daily chart the SMA 100 routes ascending around 1.2577 in MY worst case
we have a retest of the SMA100 and then a rout to the north.

there are very similar fractals in the 3 timeframes

Let´s zoom out from 15m over 1h into daily to the big picture i may be
absolutly wrong: now you all can declare me a donk
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just do it
  • #1,220
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:59am Oct 14, 2012 5:59am
Little upgrade of previous chart this include also probabiltity of downside

breakout.

Break of one of blue lines should give direction.

X=Y

I am not take trade on that is only for direction outlook purposes
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