Australian Bear Raid

added another 3 at 1.0171

1. Employment decreased to 11,506,900.
2. Unemployment increased to 645,600.
3. Unemployment rate steady at 5.3%.
4. Participation rate steady at 65.2%.
5. Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased to 1,621.1 million hours.

1. Employment increased 14,500 (0.1%) to 11,511,900. Full-time employment increased 32,100 to 8,107,000 and part-time employment decreased 17,700 to 3,404,900.
2. Unemployment increased 38,800 (6.2%) to 662,700. The number of persons looking for full-time work increased 13,200 to 483,800 and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased 25,700 to 178,900.
3. The unemployment rate increased 0.3 pts to 5.4%. The male unemployment rate increased 0.3 pts to 5.6% and the female unemployment rate increased 0.3 pts to 5.3%.
4. The participation rate increased 0.2 pts to 65.2%.
5. Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 7.6 million hours to 1,627.5 million hours

Participation rate is steady ppl want jobs and are actively looking not much of a bear here at the moment question is will they find them.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]=gifhttp://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]=gif
Employed Persons Unemployment Rate

Cancelled sell stops below the move upwards looks to be coming before the next leg down on RBA cuts in Nov or Dec. No bear this week.

One Negative new one positive news. Took out my SL. JP i think you are right, AUDUSD should be moving up before coming down. Anyway its a good learning lesson. There will be more chance to Short this soon! Hey i am reading on the Boom and bust theory. Really love it. Simple to understand too. Thanks for introducing this book to me!! Not many traders would take their time share their knowledge like you do. Really appreciate that. I have a lot more to learn from you since finance is still a new thing to me. Cheers!

what price are you selling again?

The last 24hrs was like watching Cspan at midnight wow someone please pinch me with the excitement going on in this market.

Given the RRR cut rumor and a possible weekend cut still no reason to be short here. You can test the waters but I am not adding anything until A. we break this wkly trendline lower B. we reach the targets as outlined below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1349755743

Otherwise everyone go outside and enjoy the fresh air there is nothing to see here.

same postions as the beginning of the week nothing added or decreased this market is in consolidation mode until a rate cut comes out of China or Australia.

Dollar index is a little heavy but this looks like a sell the high buy back at the 78.6 short still on. Range play here until a new risk enters the market either risk on or off either way I dont see dollar Vol's picking up too much until end of year.

Not much high correlation this week on the ES/GOLD/DOLLAR/AUD/USD
es-below sitting on support area set 9/11 and is holding firm for now.

Gold- major consolidation mode if it breaks a bit below current levels we could go for 1760 resistance point

Dollar as mentioned above its a range markets at the moment in between 786-618 nothing new here although if a Doji appears at the end of week lookout

Implications for AUD/USD based on the below, well if we break support on ES GOLD and Dollar starts back upwards again some pressure will hit AUD/USD by closing friday. I still go on saying this week the AUD/USD is not factored by other markets investors are looking already into Nov and a rate cut that coulld be coming.

VOL IS low and looks to be as the week wraps up RRR weekend cut rumor making the rounds if your short this weekend hopefully it does not come. Otherwise at the moment there are better spots to short.
WTD upwardtrendline and next support area not to mention the 61.8 (yellow) from the 6/1 bottom to the most recent high 1.0623area

Summary of Fibs for the week.

We are sitting at 50% from both the High of last year to Lo and from YTD HI/LO so next week could be more of the same consolidation range until the next RBA meeting or we can define a trend. In order for it to still pop ppl would need to see a close above 1.0233 (JUST ABove the 50% hi retrace from Last year Hi/Lo)

Still believe based on retracement ABC that we could see 1.0050 then a possible pop might come in the upside of course will be capped and give us yet another Daily LH LL's.

Otherwise pretty dull week and it was undecided. Trade coming in tonight so that could generate momentum one way on Sunday open but time will tell.

Normally because were sitting on this retrace I would sell more but the WKLY trendline looks strong still and the RRR rumor is something I dont want to be in front of with a bigger position at these levels.

PnL unrealized for the end of this week: As mentioned before I only added on spot short other than that I enjoyed the fresh air and did not do much this week position wise.

here's my long term outlook and reason for me taking this long on sunday

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1350438543

everyone take note of the yellow dots as these are areas of pivots and wave changes....

blue tl is the next wave that started on 1.014x last week

and yes 1.0340 is an area that might cause a drop back to 1.0166-pivot support and if breached down then back to 0.96

otherwise up we go for now until 1.04 to 1.0440

First let me say that I expected this move to happen as documented in a previous post10 days ago. I expected it so much that I am at an expo in Australia to vacation and do a little homework on the Mining sector. Third as a position trader I was willing to let a +70K unrealized profit from the peak of the sell to a negative 36K open position on futures and 20K loss on spot. Why? because i fully expected this move to occur upwards and it is a blip for what is coming.

I am going to start adding more shorts around 1.04-1.0435 heavy and will sell out of my Dollar Index shorts. This move was anticipated in my view and if you were caught on the short side near the bottom get out and reposition you will get another opp.

Hey JP! Welcome back man. Just curious, if this upward move was expected why didn't you take the $70k profit and re-position yourself as well. Seems that would have been the wise thing to do.

Anyways, hope you had a fun an educational trip to Australia. I've never been "down under" before...

A mixture of a framework I have on Australia the waves I expect and even anticipate so when I was at the peak profit I asked myself 'Are you so convinced Australia is going to have a big shift lower in 2013 that your willing to let this profit go to flat or even a negative piling on again at the wave top? or are you unsure and will take what you can get? I went with the former.

I stated when this position was first established several pages back that this position will be held for several months for a macro move lower given the string of cuts>coming outflows>Less tax receipts to govs ect ect ect

I always first and foremost employ strict money management but most of all any position trade I take or place I make sure that I am
A. Right about the initial move before adding on to the short
B. that if I take a position it does not impair my standard of living or that I need to make money everyday in order to survive.

I am convinced on a fundi macro aspect Australia has some major hurdles in 2013 and I got in during the cut back in September so I am well positioned currently as we are trading less than 1.5% from the Cut high

The next wave lower is coming the matter now is price and timing.

Remeber that old man in Reminiscences of s Stock Operator when ppl came to him in the broker lobby 'Why are you not selling' he responded with an ease of certainty and relaxed state said ' why don't you know its a bull market'

WeLL dont you know its a bear market

at 1.05 I am wrong for the record so ppl dont think I have an unlimited amount of funds and not a stop loss.

I assure you if I loose in this macro trade I WILL cut almost 10% from my account.