Australian Bear Raid

Looks like Aussie dollar going south before going up again. Right? Base on these news.

not expecting much until unemployment comes out than it will break this range we have been trading in. Sideways to Up INTO NY only if it breaks this downward retrace will we see some bids otherwise it looks like pure chop

Sold dollars again at 80.12 SL: 80.30 looks like AUD/USD wants to break out here for a move higher per my trading map (if we break jobs) higher

With you there JP... I'm guessing some shorts will be shaken out before the next down leg. Possibly looking for shorts from the Daily DT line or sooner depending on momentum. Long for now.

Enjoying watching how a true Fundamentalist operates.

ps but steven always offline

Bad Job Data AUDUSD will rise or fall? Saw ya comment Break jobs to move higher. Don't make sense to me. I am guessing it will be bad since they are cutting jobs base on the news u posted here.

snooze excuse my terrible writing skills lol. I did not put the periods where they were supposed to be. Bad news than yes we will be heavy again short, we might not break through this range but it will be interesting how we trade after the release.

Sold 300,000 more on spot side.

3,000,000 short on AUD/USD
-35c short on /6A
-2c short Dollar index

could be a bad entry pre jobs but if we trade higher the cap is in on the topside area.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post6079832

still think the above can happen as we head into the next RBA cut but for now i put in a bit more short in case jobs are exceptionally bad

added aapl wkly call for additional hedge post numbers tonight. ES dow look to be on a reversal but the gods from above looks to stall it again this week and we could see a move higher on ES/DOW into the week close.

As for AUD/USD still waiting pretty boring week thus far but that is good because the market is undecided and when they decide it will be explosive


3,000,000 short on AUD/USD
-35c short on /6A
-2c short Dollar index
(wkly) 645C 20c BOT @ 4.10

Iron ore prices have jumped more than 12 per cent since the end of China’s Golden Week holiday, marking a shift in attitude among Chinese traders and steelmakers, who triggered a 36 percent collapse in prices in just two months by stepping back from the market and running down stocks. Aluminum Corp. of China may cut the size of a Hong Kong initial public offering of its Peruvian copper mining unit by more than half, underscoring weak demand for new stock in Hong Kong. South African mining company Gold One fired more than 1,400 striking miners at the Ezulwini mine outside Johannesburg after a court declared the strike illegal.

PITTSBURGH Asian Metal 10 Oct 12 – Brazilian iron ore activity has seen no major fluctuation since late last week despite an uptick in spot values, sources reported to Asian Metal. Participants expect little short-term improvement, suspecting that the recent increases in prices is likely due to a restocking of inventory at discharge ports and is not likely to hold throughout the remainder of 2012. Brazilian figures for iron ore fines 62%min have picked-up slightly to USD110-115t CFR China over the past week, an increase of approximately USD5.0t.

Haha, No worries. Cause I was relating US Data to this so kinda make sense to me. Anyway i'm with you on this. Shorted @ 1.0227. Lets see where it brings us to

Looking at ES and the orders coming through there is a battle going on if we dont hold this level look out below for a reversal as for how much not sure as the ABC is not setup in this HFT world

we might keep this level into the last hour but the last hour will decide who will liquidate or who will buy into the close.

Out of the AAPL calls with a -1600 loss they traded to 4.90 should of taken it but missed the opp. Aapl is still heavy and post earnings I will look again for a new entry. Otherwise I need to stick to currencies as that is the market I cover and trade with pure conviction.

All pretty patterns and trendline drawings aside both can agree this is not a bull move this is textbook CONSOLIDATION. Until the breakout occurs anyway the bulls have no say just like the bears have no say this week so far.

PPL can fight for this range but I will take the bigger moves ONCE they occur. If it spikes up per the outline I specified on my 'road map' I will be ready. If it breaks down per this range I will be ready. We can all agree on the following.

1. YTD the trend since AUG is sideways and testing downward movement
2. Another rate cut is coming for certain either Nov or Dec
3. Commodities are starting to come back but well off the Hi's seen in the beginning of the year.
4. China has not participated in this rally this year and the question of stimulus and growth is in the minds of the market.
5. Until we see more Econ reports out of Australia we are in the lowered expectations phase and questioning growth.

Sell Stop placed at 1.0180 if we spike down and then come back up to breakout of this range I will close out this leg quickly.

the major retrace is still at 1.0050

Dont argue with those who are on the other side of the fence because they will never agree when their in a mindset or in a position opposite from yours. Everyone sounds smart these days especially with the internet space giving us unlimited data to go over. But traders should not become so arrogant in their thesis that you find yourself arguing with others or trying to persuade them to agree with you rather than looking at your argument and finding areas where there are holes.

We work inherently with imperfect understanding when it comes to the markets in one degree we seek to understand it, the other we seek to bring about a desired change or outcome. This brings about a Bias and it is not possible to separate those two unless the argument is proven invalid or valid. Those who claim to be in possession of the ultimate truth are making a false claim, and they can enforce it only by imposing their views on those who differ

Those who say 1.06+ will be validated if it goes to that price
Those who say 0.95-0.90 will be validated if it goes to that price
Until that time both arguments have no merit and we can only trade what is given to the market participant.

I trade and base an argument not so much on forward thinking but what Soros called a 'Framework' and if at anytime the framework is altered by new data or actual NOT UNDERLYING(perception) change I will be invalidated.