Greek Economy Wilting But Deficit Improving | Forex Factory

Greek Economy Wilting But Deficit Improving | Forex Factory

Greek Economy Wilting But Deficit Improving

From forexlive.com

Greece’s alternate finance minister forecasts the economy will contract 6.5% this year and 3.8% in 2013. It’s incredible that Greece has been able to lower the deficit, given the pace of economic contraction. It illustrates the depth of the cuts. The alternate fin min also said the primary deficit through the end of September was 2B euros compared to 6.1B a year ago. He expects a primary surplus of 1% in 2013.

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Oct 10, 2012 9:45am

I like the wording... 'PRIMARY' deficit...

Here are some facts on Greece...

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-debt-to-gdp
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-budget
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/unemployment-rate
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp-growth-annual

Let's face it... Greece is bust. EURUSD gets a temporary lift but certainly this is not the start of the bullish trend!

Oct 10, 2012 12:33pm

Does the new surplus forecast account for the huge drop in revenues as a result of their so called "austerity" measures? Sounds like more bullshit coming out of the mouth of a Greek politician.

Oct 10, 2012 9:42am

It jumped 30 pips or so....then people realised that the numbers can't be trusted.

It will retest the 1.2880 level today I suspect...there's not enough follow through in the EURO buying.

Oct 10, 2012 9:31am

YES

Oct 10, 2012 9:49am

Reckon the EUR will come back down

Oct 10, 2012 10:10am — Edited

No matter how indicative of direction a news item or technical pattern is unless in fact there is transaction flow and liquidity defined to go in that direction price will not move that way. Like any market price will move in the direction where available liquidity is being consumed by order flow - that is why empirical research finds that price moves over 70% of the time based on transaction flows. This is why we say news is noise in direction.

For instance I estimate that due to the sign of the flow at 1.29128 price must fall but will find enough bids (due to depth of market) @ about 1.28811 - 1.28740 which should power it above the daily pivot. It is not news or anything powering price it is order flow - the consumption of available liquidity by order flow. It seems to me that there is enough liquidity to take us to the 1.29600 level if and only if we are able to cross (and close a H4 candle above) the daily pivot line. Regardless of news. Else negative order flow will send us through the current low which I doubt. News is mere noise in direction.

Oct 10, 2012 10:42am — Edited

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

So greece decided to fart again huh? Bunch of suckers their government are

Ignored

Hey what is the gist - just turned on the system as you know we were a bit under water yesterday and hoping we can make it at least above the daily pivot and close with a positive H4 candle. How does that look from your view of the market? Think we gonna make it?

Oct 10, 2012 11:15am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Hey what is the gist - just turned on the system as you know we were a bit under water yesterday and hoping we can make it at least above the daily pivot and close with a positive H4 candle. How does that look from you view of the market? Think we gonna make it?

Ignored

I'm not too confident that it will hold on to daily pivot at .29098 coz I'm monitoring SP too, it's dangling on it's life support at 1436.7 - may jolly well break downwards.

Greece is scheduled for a riot on the 18th Oct so I ain't betting big on long for the moment but will do at .2736/44 area.

I'm more on shorts at the mo buddy, sell on any rally. I'm treating .2884 with a direct correlation with SP 1436.7 for today.

Oct 10, 2012 11:34am — Edited

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

I'm not too confident that it will hold on to daily pivot at .29098 coz I'm monitoring SP too, it's dangling on it's life support at 1436.7 - may jolly well break downwards.

Ignored

I read you buddy but cant sell now - we trading up to recover our deposits on a H4 swing which we think will take us to 1.29600 at least. But if you are right and we are decidedly not going to sustain above the daily pivot we will be with you all the way down. Fortunately recovery can be either way but we feel strongly yesterdays low was this weeks low we think the weeks high should recover our dough with a some interest on top. Stop is at 1.28032 so if price starts heading that way we will sell to cover.

PS: We still think that the Euro will surprise to the upside in the days ahead. That is how we read things. However, our model updates each zero bar so we will see - by the time we get to 1.29600 what things look like ahead.

Oct 10, 2012 12:03pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

nice manipulator!!!.....predicting the fall is the most challenging thing in this business thou

Ignored

Hey thanks for pointing out to me I had my figures mixed up. I corrected that now - wrote 1.26900 when I meant to write 1.29600 sad typo hope no one else got confused that read it. Cheers

Oct 10, 2012 12:11pm

possibility of euro going to down is more visible than going up if it goes up well and good any competition two persons needed for a long time USD dominated the world market after introduction of euro its power start to fade but USD single currency purely based on their own where as euro combined currency it has to depend all member country obligation if they handle euro will dominate thereafter quite difficult wait and watch

Oct 10, 2012 12:21pm — Edited

Quoting fxmangal

Disliked

possibility of euro going to down is more visible than going up if it goes up well and good any competition two persons needed for a long time USD dominated the world market after introduction of euro its power start to fade but USD single currency purely based on their own where as euro combined currency it has to depend all member country obligation if they handle euro will dominate thereafter quite difficult wait and watch

Ignored

This is a new thought - in other words the notion of many loosely affiliated sovereigns vs a single already united sovereign is an important dynamic to watch. No doubt there are many fundamental theorists in the market trading daily based on their very different outlooks - who wins each round I guess still depends on order flow since clearly traders trade on a variety of sentiments. Just like technicians with many different systems.Nice

Oct 10, 2012 12:49pm

Quoting Subdude

Disliked

Does the new surplus forecast account for the huge drop in revenues as a result of their so called "austerity" measures? Sounds like more bullshit coming out of the mouth of a Greek politician.

Ignored

Just let me know when was the last time there is a decent Greek politician? They are saying this to balance their sheet for TODAY only, God knows how much damage will be done on the 18th!!!!! Try balancing their stats on the 19th instead, common sense stuff and we know it won't be the fk bullshit they bullshit all along!

Oct 10, 2012 1:55pm

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Marketwatch reporting $ sell off on the news but the Euro is like unable to crossover the daily pivot. Strange.

Ignored

Did you see that twat who shouted long/short on his trades? He went long at .2865 last night and got stopped out to below to .283 area but managed to scooped ONLY 39pips after 24hours.

SP still having some issues crossing above 38.2% at 1434.3, 2 pts away from 1436.

I'm still incline to the lows really, for me self.

Oct 10, 2012 2:08pm

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

Did you see that twat who shouted long/short on his trades? He went long at .2865 last night and got stopped out to below to .283 area but managed to scooped ONLY 39pips after 24hours.

SP still having some issues crossing above 38.2% at 1434.3, 2 pts away from 1436.

I'm still incline to the lows really, for me self.

Ignored

He was just jealous of you and the Manipulator - you know you do what you do out of your good nature but for him it is an ego thing I think he craves adulation - just a wata loo trader from what you say. I am firmly long mate until my regression model starts to tank - thing with it is it takes time calculating so one has to be patient waiting now for the closing 4 hour bar.

PS: Still pointing to the upside - you know a machine is a brute no emotions and the only way to win with it is to steel yourself regardless of the "noise" and just follow it's dictates.

Oct 10, 2012 2:12pm

H4 closed, it looks like the job for the asia session to pop higher -fingers crossed. Asia market is more predictable than bloody EU and especially NY session.

At the moment, a lot of things lack follow through

Oct 10, 2012 2:15pm

Quoting jonahky7

Disliked

H4 closed, it looks like the job for the asia session to pop higher -fingers crossed. Asia market is more predictable than bloody EU and especially NY session.

At the moment, a lot of things lack follow through

Ignored

Yea but we are in long-term so as long as we get above the pivot line and price keeps growing we are on track - looks like that for now.

PS: The Bar at New York close

Oct 11, 2012 1:45am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

But should retrace a bit on NY close without negating the upthrust - will tell you how far I think when we get the zero bar calculation on close.

Ignored

Parasite reaches 127.2 .2842 down if the "double-bottom" holds there is still a possibility to pop up, my weekly pivot at .2978 area.

But if "double bottom" breaks then I'm all my way to 161.8 area .2736.

Oct 11, 2012 1:22am

consolidation........

Oct 10, 2012 9:31am

EUR up ?

Oct 10, 2012 9:32am

its started bullish trend?

Oct 10, 2012 9:39am

no its not the starting of bullishness but u can call it retracement , euro will come down again very soon

Oct 10, 2012 10:12am

Quoting vinay.rasane

Disliked

its started bullish trend?

Ignored

Namskar .. keep watch on Angela Merkel's comment ..

Oct 10, 2012 10:24am

So greece decided to fart again huh? Bunch of suckers their government are

Oct 10, 2012 1:14pm

Marketwatch reporting $ sell off on the news but the Euro is like unable to crossover the daily pivot. Strange.

Oct 10, 2012 2:22pm

But should retrace a bit on NY close without negating the upthrust - will tell you how far I think when we get the zero bar calculation on close.

Trader#AAF3

Oct 10, 2012 11:09am

nice manipulator!!!.....predicting the fall is the most challenging thing in this business thou

Trader#2275

Oct 10, 2012 11:17pm

What will happen for gold if Eu and us stocks down and asian rise!
What are you thinking about gold price in next 2 weaks?
Thank u!

Story Stats

Oct 10, 2012 9:27am
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