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''Trading Price II'' by PhAnti - have fun

  • #261
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:13am Oct 2, 2012 8:13am
Quoting 919gilead
Hi Predot,

It's a currency strength meter (CSM) which measures the strength of the two currencies constituting the pair, against each other based on some complex computation. There are two currencies in the EURUSD, and these are EUR & USD, so the meter is measuring the strength of EUR against USD.

And to your question regarding the purpose of the indicator - a trader will be at an advantage when trading a weak currency against a strong one, because for a pair to move and gain momentum, one of the currencies need to be strong while the one is weak....
It's very interesting and new subject for me. thank you for your explanation.... I will google and look at your link thread.
have a bless day George.

predot
Its in the chart😎
  • #262
  • Oct 3, 2012 5:48pm Oct 3, 2012 5:48pm
A picture is worth a thousand words!!! Textbook perfect setup on the EURCAD around London open. Pole plus divergence with engulfing candle equal pips - powerful setup but I missed it as I was no show today.

Good trading to all

Shalom and God bless

George
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #263
  • Oct 3, 2012 7:12pm Oct 3, 2012 7:12pm
Possible H4 Bullish Flag in the Euro
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #264
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:34pm Oct 3, 2012 9:34pm
Aussie retested previous low @ 1.0195 and broke next demand level, and we now have regular bullish divergence on M15 to H1 hinting of the possibility of price bouncing from this level. If price however drops further, a possible support at the next demand level @ 1.0165 may be inevitable where we would likely have a double bottom.

I am therefore watching to buy break of 1.0234 (if the 1.0184 low is maintained) with stop few pips below this Asian low @ 1.0179. 1st PT is the pole @ 1.0329 and if price continues upward, then 1.0404 to 1.0473 are 2nd & 3rd possible PTs.

Just speculating, and you should do your homework and research too.

Good trading to all.

Cheers, and God bless

George
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  • #265
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:58pm Oct 3, 2012 9:58pm
EURAUD is a runner and worthy of attention. This chart has some similarities to the Aussie chart posted earlier. Watch for confirmation of possible reversal with divergence at supply level. If you change to the H1 TF you will see that this pair has moved 350 pips without any correction and this is the 2nd divergence within the last 24 hours hinting of possible reversal.

Great trading to all

Cheers, and God bless

George
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  • #266
  • Oct 4, 2012 9:02am Oct 4, 2012 9:02am
Quoting 919gilead
A picture is worth a thousand words!!! Textbook perfect setup on the EURCAD around London open. Pole plus divergence with engulfing candle equal pips - powerful setup but I missed it as I was no show today.

Good trading to all

Shalom and God bless

George
very very nice George
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #267
  • Oct 6, 2012 11:27pm Oct 6, 2012 11:27pm
The charts speak for themselves
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  • #268
  • Oct 7, 2012 4:37am Oct 7, 2012 4:37am
Quoting 919gilead
The charts speak for themselves
yep, but never enter just off a divergence scenario. You need to combine divergence with supply/demand areas to get powerful trading setups that are highly reliable.

good charts, great analysis.

Thanks for your efforts.

best,
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #269
  • Oct 8, 2012 3:43am Oct 8, 2012 3:43am
Quoting PhAnTi'
yep, but never enter just off a divergence scenario. You need to combine divergence with supply/demand areas to get powerful trading setups that are highly reliable.

good charts, great analysis.

Thanks for your efforts.

best,
Jonas
Very true Jonas, and my demand/supply levels are the areas marked in aqua color. I did not mention that in my post as I expect all members & followers of this thread to already know that. I wait for price to get to demand/supply zones and look for continuation or reversal confirmation on close of the initiating candle. If price starts to move in my intended direction, I look for one additional confirmation - that I am trading a weak currency against a strong one and this is where my currency strength meter (CSM) comes in.

AUDUSD is still struggling around the demand level which shows equilibrium at this level but the divergence seem to hint of buyers winning. My CSM also seem to show equal strength between AUD & USD but with the AUD have slight edge.

The EURAUD on the other hand has dropped over 50 pips back under the supply level for possible short. I am not short the pair yet as I am waiting for a retest to see whether I get a continuation or reversal confirmation, before entry.

Good trading to all, and God bless

George
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  • #270
  • Edited 5:44am Oct 8, 2012 5:30am | Edited 5:44am
Quoting 919gilead
Very true Jonas, and my demand/supply levels are the areas marked in aqua color. I did not mention that in my post as I expect all members & followers of this thread to already know that. I wait for price to get to demand/supply zones and look for continuation or reversal confirmation on close of the initiating candle. If price starts to move in my intended direction, I look for one additional confirmation - that I am trading a weak currency against a strong one and this is where my currency strength meter (CSM) comes in.

AUDUSD is still struggling...
Unfortunately for EURAUD, price never went to retest the 2771 supply handle, which is why I am sometimes reluctant to ignore the first breakout, but guess it is safer to wait for the retest of the pole. There is a minor demand point around 2716 which coincides with the 200MA, where price may find support and possibly bounce. Additional confluence of bullish divergence is also developing from M5 thru H1 and my SMI is @ extreme level on the lower time frames. Maybe this will give the retest, as we may even buy here if we get necessary buy confirmation as we seem to have a pole here - just my thots and observation.
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  • #271
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:13am Oct 8, 2012 6:13am
Noticed this trade setup from the weekend, and see how it worked out nicely for over 170 pips. Just running thru all the charts and learning, and hoping I can catch most of them in the future.

Shalom and God bless

George
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  • #272
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:22am Oct 8, 2012 9:22am
been a long time coming, but I have just exited this trade for a few pips not bad..this trade did test my limits for awhile but when we had the retest and fail of the supply line I entered in again to ride out the nfp results for the usd.. nice set of points there! got out at the close of the last candle as i've been in this too long and my patience has worn this with this trade!

Peace! x
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  • #273
  • Oct 8, 2012 4:14pm Oct 8, 2012 4:14pm
The additional filter I use on the M15 TF (from the SonicR thread) kept me out of this headfake.
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  • #274
  • Oct 9, 2012 10:22am Oct 9, 2012 10:22am
nice short on euro today
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  • #275
  • Oct 10, 2012 8:14am Oct 10, 2012 8:14am
Quoting PhAnTi'
also eu setup before, powerful divergence
Thanks for creating this great ebook PhAnTi. In the the book you go into great detail about the mechanics of the market (supply / demand) and so on, so I was surprised to see that you did not discuss anything theoretical surrounding MACD and divergence. As in, you don't talk about how or why you think it has any bearing on where price is going to go. Do you have a theory on it, or is it just something that you have noticed correlates well with outcomes?

I mean, the MACD is derivative from price. As a result it lags price. What does the divergence of the highs and lows from price actually tell us? Does it actually help filter trades or is it merely a case of cognitive affirmation, whereby you believe it helps and so you notice when it keeps you out of a bad trade but fail to notice when it does not. In other words - I guess I'm wondering if you've performed any sort of structured examination of your trades with and without divergence and examined whether it impacts your success rate. Thanks
  • #276
  • Oct 10, 2012 8:30am Oct 10, 2012 8:30am
nice short on the eurusd h1 chart.. am currently up 12 points entry @1.28973 and expect this to go down towards the target area of 1.28044 at which point I expect to see divergence on the MACD chart..and as that will be a previous area of resistance, i will go long at this level! comments welcome as always!

Peace! x
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  • #277
  • Oct 10, 2012 8:46am Oct 10, 2012 8:46am
Quoting singth
nice short on the eurusd h1 chart.. am currently up 12 points entry @1.28973 and expect this to go down towards the target area of 1.28044 at which point I expect to see divergence on the MACD chart..and as that will be a previous area of resistance, i will go long at this level! comments welcome as always!

Peace! x
also shorted a euro pair.
Although I entered a bit late on this one, i see a heavy bearish trend on going. Also price retested pole level and bounced back down. Supply confirmed.
So i follow the major trend and do have a short entry right below a supply level.
Target next demand, in this case the vbrn 100.00.
Stop above the previous supply.... 1:1 r:r is pretty low, but i rate this bearish trend strong enough to enter here apart from the low r:r.

Lets see how this one goes.

Note : I wont change any trade settings while running. Either stop or target...i dont care, since i accepted the loss already

best,
Jonas

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #278
  • Oct 10, 2012 8:50am Oct 10, 2012 8:50am
Quoting singth
nice short on the eurusd h1 chart.. am currently up 12 points entry @1.28973 and expect this to go down towards the target area of 1.28044 at which point I expect to see divergence on the MACD chart..and as that will be a previous area of resistance, i will go long at this level! comments welcome as always!

Peace! x
nice analysis ! seems like some euro pairs offer the quiet same right now
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #279
  • Oct 10, 2012 9:04am Oct 10, 2012 9:04am
Thanks for the reply Jonas, Just had a quick look at the eurjpy h1 chart and from what i gather price will need to retest the 3/8 level as opposed to the bottom of the supply box that we have drawn.

I have put a pending short at the 3/8 level or the 101.178, price needs to hit and fail this line before I would consider going short, the profit target area of 100.00 does seem to be perfect as this area almost seems magnetic to this pair.

Peace! x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #280
  • Oct 10, 2012 10:12am Oct 10, 2012 10:12am
Quoting singth
Thanks for the reply Jonas, Just had a quick look at the eurjpy h1 chart and from what i gather price will need to retest the 3/8 level as opposed to the bottom of the supply box that we have drawn.

I have put a pending short at the 3/8 level or the 101.178, price needs to hit and fail this line before I would consider going short, the profit target area of 100.00 does seem to be perfect as this area almost seems magnetic to this pair.

Peace! x
and im in!
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