Australian Bear Raid

On Dollar still strong as risk is subdued at the moment and there is chop this week so far. If dollar breaks 61.8 to the upside look for a major HS for a bigger move lower which could come next year, or it could be a continued new move higher to far out to tell.

If we break lower below 78.6 that 886 or 78.81 needs to hold on Daily for this next leg down not to occur.

Correlation on AUD/USD dollar index not that strong at the moment with either way but the corcoef is trending to the Direct side for both AUD/USD and Dollar index

Pipage,

Yes I would of expected a spike upwards because they would of essentially been telling ppl even though main commodities are down we are weathering the storm and you would of seen a spike.

However the way I see it if that happen there would be a channel cap a bit above 1.05 because the November cut then would be 100% assured.

the drawings are illustrations but yes I think we would be trading 1.04-1.05 area with noise spikes that settle quickly heading into Nov.

Looking for a day or two swing play on dollar short at these levels. Looking at the topside and downside the R:r is not bad here.
Have not entered yet but will look to the open in a few minutes

Sold dollars SL: 80.26 TP: pending but near the lower range


Still short same on Spot AUD/USD and AU futures: No change

Not a great stop loss but its worth noting that Dollar has closed the highest Yesterday so if we do get some down side it will be swift.

You think the DX high will hold. And what other reason to go long?

I think we could trade in a range here say 80.35-79.43 before the next 'news' play comes about. I will move my stop a bit higer to 80.30 as the Level 2 is showing some interesting bids here.

Filled on the stop loss small lose looks like stop hunting but the more Dollar Index goes to 61.8 the better for my AUD/USD short thesis and risk off sentiment

Might try to swing short dollar again but not right now the trend is up here since this recent bottom.

Fortescue 2012 Annual report for those who want to learn from the front lines of the Mining sector in Australia


http://www.fmgl.com.au/UserDir/AsxAn...%202012671.pdf

Hi JP,

Yeah i just started on it. Still in introduction though but it is a very interesting read. The Boom/Bust effect, Reflexivity of Credits etc. Keeps me thinking. Good read!

Rio Tinto chief talking on Australia, Coal, and Competitiveness

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bus...ful-rio-chief/

Snooze glad your taking a look you will like the Currency Market chapter and the Real Time Experiment those were my favorite two chapters
Once you read this book it will get you thinking about macro money flows and how they occur over and over again just disguising themselves differently

Looking at dollar short yet again but this time I will wait for downward confirmation before going in.

Iron Ore stockpiles Rise in China

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-s...02&MainCatID=0

Xstrata begins coal job cuts in NSW Central West
http://ht.ly/elKkn

Australia sells A$ 3.25B of 2029 bonds.

All This Finance thingy is really rocket science to me. Trying to get the hang of it right now! HAHA!

If you have questions let me know just tell me the pg numbers


Fortescue CEO saying Iron ore will firm End of Year
http://www.news.com.au/business/brea...rom=public_rss

BHP does record bond sale in $A denomination
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...ia-credit.html

Macquarie economists now talking about possibility of 2% cash rate, expecting unemployment in Australia to rise