Australian Bear Raid

China has their own steel, iron, copper pits and mills but a lot ofthem are losing money on this so they are using Australia for most of the imports of Coal/Iron ore. China was hyped up to expectations like the tech bubble and now people realize that 8.0+ GDP is not the norm anymore (unless your an economist) so the parties that supplement China growth will see less work for now. Australia is a beast of its own instead of looking at the relationship of CHINA/AUSTRALIA and their Import/Export relationship I look at Australia separately. They have a structural problem with their Mining/Banking sectors feeding off one another and the credit offered and the lending practices are getting looser and looser as revenue margins come down.

China's stimulus has not fully gone out yet but if the new party just like in 2008 puts that money to work in development like housing it will be good money going after bad again.

There is a two part problem in China going on the first half is trying to cover the non performing loans and keep credit freely available to these developers so they won't default, and the second half is trying to put this money to work in infrastructure to appease the people and more importantly the marketplace. The black hole of non performing loans and SPV loans that has been issued by china in massive amounts (off the books) is comparable to The derivatives black hole of contracts that are being rolled over so that the losses can still be unrealized and fully hedged. This will all blow up soon the question is where will the first shoe drop.

The big four banks will pass along most of the Reserve Bank's rate cut to mortgage holders, analysts believe - but the wait may drag on until next week.
The major banks took an average of 10.6 days to pass along rate cuts following RBA reductions beginning in November 2011, but hike rates on average after only 6.8 days, according to calculations by Fairfax. Each day’s delay adds an estimated $6.2 million to the big four’s combined profits.

ANZ and others are expected to announce their new rates for the bank on Friday

Watch dollar index to see if we get any follow through from two weeks ago hi 80.09 as we tested this level many times and only closed on hourly briefly above before dropping. If we break on through to the upside this means weaker EUR and S&P. Other way around presumes really great news out of some other country or Spain gets their Christmas gift early

Need to buck up my reading! Thank you for sharing these valuable knowledge!

Hold off on shorting if anyone is thinking about it let a full 24hr session pass or until we get to 1.0325-1.04

Current Iron Ore prices

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-F8cP7E-99C...0/iron+ore.png

Hold off on shorting. Covering is going to be coming in overnight. I will look to NY for a hedge.

Relentless #AUDJPY buying following a resumption in #japanese trade. Stops being obliterated against it, the #gbp & the #USD

Goldman Sachs joining the Australian Bear Raid

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...23Forex,+%23Fx

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bhp-t...008-2799f.html
BHP to cut jobs in Iron Ore
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post6059577
Dominos are falling

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post6064175
Soros can tell you better than any man in the world what is happening

This weakness in the construction sector, particularly of new homes, has been one of the bigger surprises - Reserve Bank

Shanghai rallying +1.7% taking Hong Kong up +1.2%. Iron ore +6% while china shut, talk of RRR cut & people just getting more bullish

Wow that's a lot of information! Thanks JP!

Here is an old sheet I used to use for news and econ stuff you can add to it as you see fit. Usually I go through the sheet for a few hours a day reading the days events. Now I have paid service (not worth it ;() or twitter handles I follow.

My road map heading into the next cut that may or may not come in Nov

and December is where I am looking for the cut but the RBA could surprise

Thank you so much JP! Will look through it. Now i am reading up on the book u mention. Alchemy of Finance.

That is great you will love when he talks about the reflexivity of banking/credit also he has his real time experiment it really gets you in the mind of the best speculator of our time IMO

I ordered my copy yesterday. Looking forward to the read.

i can get you the free PDF if your able to cancel that order

but I keep a hardcopy close to my desk always

Thanks JP, I had a brief look online, but couldnt find a copy, plus amazon was selling it for 12 quid. Saves me the headache in printing out the pdf.

Anyway a quick question on the recent RBA rate cut. Before it was announced I was thinking to myself what implication a cut or no cut would have on the AUD price. Obviously a cut would reduce investor yield etc and lead to money outflow and hence a weaker currency. Lets say the RBA decided to hold interest rates in October, would you have anticipated a short term strenghing of the aussie dollar. As foriegn investors would still see a potential good return. Your views appreciated.