GBP/USD and EUR/USD

nice 1... closed my cable too... happy weekend all

what a fluke ? see post here

current candle's low is 1.6128 where price found support & just kept refusing to die !
previous candle low was 1.6121 which means my initial target of 1.6128 was met on the big candle down !

no regrets, better to be safe than sorry !

peace.

http://imageshack.us/a/img823/2834/cable11.gif

http://imageshack.us/a/img233/2834/cable11.gif

cable - waiting for a pullback towards trendline to initiate a short

i'm not able to initiate a sell stop of 1.60987 in fxcm with a sl of 1.6135 & tp of 1.6031

is tp & sl invalid - far from price ?

sl is 37 pips away & tp is 50 pips away, is it far ?

here's my trade from yesterday
short 1.6131
tp manual

I think the monthly trend is Changed @ Magenta line...

regards

hi maniac,
agree with you,... downside target around 1.5673xx
here my simple analyses ...
usdlfx target @1.6746
gbplfx target @ 2.6247
GBPUSD = 2.6247/1.6746 (1.5673xx)

cheers

EUR in Critical Point...

Multi Levels for EURO in H1 time frime

Friday October 12, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

ADD : EUR/USD Meter Graph

Multi Levels for POUNDS in H1 time frime

Friday October 12, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

ADD : GBP/USD Meter Graph

Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph

Friday October 12, 2012

Dynamic Trend : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from H4 to M1 time frime
Daily Dynamic : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from D1 to D4 time frime

ADD : 5 Pairs Currencies Power Graph

http://imageshack.us/a/img706/8818/gbpusdlong2.gif

Europe: Still Center Stage

Friday, October 19, 2012 at 6:48 AM
Marc Chandler

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DLt6LySFUz...200/globe2.jpg

There were three signals of note that emerged from the EU Summit, even if no new initiatives or measures were announced.

First, there was moral support for Greece as officials recognized “the determination of the Greek government to deliver on its commitments and we commend the remarkable efforts by the Greek people.” By acknowledging that good progress has been made to bring the adjustment program back on track, it will be difficult to deny Greece a tranche of aid so it can service its debt that remains largely in the Troika’s hands.

Second, German and non-euro area governments succeeded in slowing down the dash to establish the ECB as the sole bank supervisory at the start of 2013. Instead, European officials agreed in principle to work out the details over the course of next year.

Third, as we have noted before, and the summit drives home the point, the relationship between France and Germany has changed profoundly. Merkel is the first post-modern German Chancellor in the sense that she is not longer burdened by the Germany of the first half of the 20th century, and realizes that to secure the country’s economic future it needs to assertive in pursuing its political interests. Hollande may be the first post-modern France president in the sense that he recognizes France’s interests lie more with the periphery, like Spain and Italy, than with the Northern European creditors, including Germany.

Galicia and Basque Country hold elections this weekend. The elections notable in their own right, but also they were seen as a hurdle the government wanted to pass before formally requesting aid in addition to the 100 bln euro bank backstop. Galicia is the prime minister’s home region. His party, the PP has governed Galicia for 24 of past 31 years.

Although the region’ unemployment is lower than the national average, the risk is the PP are punished at the polls for the austerity and economic ruin. The PP could simply lose its absolute majority, which would be a minor slap on the wrist. The PP could be pushed into opposition and this would have greater potential to impact national policy.

In Basque Country the center-right nationalist and the center-left nationalist coalition will likely split as much as 2/3 of the vote. The talk of secession by Catalonia, which has elections next month (Nov 23), may be emboldening nationalist sentiment in Basque Country, which is never far from the surface.

Such talk in Catalonia should be placed not only in terms of Spain’s own post-Franco evolution, but also should be placed within a broader context of what is happening in Europe. It is one thing to recognize that EMU is an incomplete monetary union without a fiscal union. However, even within a number of European countries a number of wealthy regions are balking at internal transfers.

With little fanfare, the Belgium’s municipal elections strengthened the hands of those who do not want to pay for the poorer part (yes the divide is also over language and cultural lines). Talk that Venice is may seek independence has also surfaced. In Germany, Bavaria is balking at continuing to make transfers not only to the debtors in Europe, but to the poorer parts of its own country. With economic hardship likely to continue these separatist forces appear likely to strengthen and further complicates addressing economic issues.

While European officials have reduced the tail risks of a blow-up, Europe itself as an ideological construct is withering away from within. The dissolution of social trust (what we have recognized as European comity), is one of the big casualties of the crisis. As difficult as it may be to repair the economic and financial damage wrought by the crisis, repairing the social contract may prove even more elusive.

Multi Levels for EURO in H1 time frime

Friday October 19, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

Multi Levels for POUNDS in H1 time frime

Friday October 19, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph

Friday October 19, 2012

Dynamic Trend : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from H4 to M1 time frime
Daily Dynamic : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from D1 to D4 time frime

FX Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Still Carving out a Bottom

Saturday, October 20, 2012 at 9:11 AM
Marc Chandler

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-atdO1xt8F1...0/scrabble.jpg

Our big picture view is that the US dollar is carving out an important bottom, after selling off in Q3 as policy makers moved to reduce the extreme tail risks. The position adjustment that that inspired among investors appears to have largely run its course.

This bottoming of the dollar is proving to be a more protracted process than we initially anticipated, but we think it is continuing to unfold. Some observers suspect that the uncertainties surrounding the US election, the fiscal cliff and related debt ceiling issues also may be hampering the greenback's recovery.

The US presidential election appears to have tightened (though again we underscore the idiosyncratic nature of the electoral college system, which means that national polls might be nice snapshots, but the real signal comes from the swing states and here the advantage remains with the incumbent). Yet, even if one has a high confidence of a particular electoral outcome, the market response is more difficult to anticipate.

Moreover, there is great uncertainty over the implications for the dollar if the US does go over the fiscal cliff. Would the consequences lead to a dramatic risk-off trade (benefiting the dollar and yen), while those currencies and countries most sensitive to world growth (like the dollar-bloc and emerging markets) suffer? In a risk-off phase, European currencies typically perform poorly. If the fiscal cliff is somehow averted, minimized or postponed, could risk-on trades, which have typically undermined the dollar, return to favor?

The other key driver in the foreign exchange market is Europe. The rally in Greek bonds on the back of strong signals that it will receive another tranche of aid so it can service it's primarily official sector creditors, is indicative of the reduced tail risks of a Grexit that many had thought was inevitable and imminent at various points in the past six months.

We are impressed with the success European officials have had essentially talking the market away from the edge of the abyss without spending a single penny. However, as the recent acrimonious and seemingly unproductive EU summit indicates, many hard decisions have yet be made and the divide between the creditors and debtors remains as stark as ever.

The fiscal cliff/debt ceiling issue in the US will be resolved one way or the other in late Q4 or early Q1. The time frame of Europe's challenges do not appear as constrained. Closure there remains considerably more elusive. We continue to believe the contradiction between relatively low implied volatility and the high degree of uncertainty and the numerous risk events on the horizon will be resolved with higher volatility.

Euro: For the last several weeks, since early September, which ever direction the euro moves on Friday, it moves in the opposite direction on the following Monday (on a NY close to close basis) Although participants ought not put much stock in these short-term patterns, they are suggestive and cautions against looking for much follow through on Monday. The euro did accelerate through the down trend, cited last week, drawn off the mid-September and early October highs, only to falter in the second half of the week. Resistance is seen in the $1.3140-70 band. Initial support is seen in the $1.2980-$1.3000 area.

Barring dramatic price action, next week, the 50-day moving average will cross above the 200-day moving average (the Golden Cross). Sterling's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average in mid-September. The Swiss franc's averages are also likely to cross next week. The sequence whereby sterling leads the euro and the Swiss franc confirms it, seems to be among the strongest technical signals. It was precisely this sequence that helped encourage us to anticipate the dollar bottom in late 2007/early 2008.

Speculative positioning at the IMM still shows a large number of short euro positions remain, and whose short-covering could fuel another leg up in the euro. However, we think the euro has yet to prove itself. After the initial adjustment to reduced tail risk in Europe, the euro has traded in a $1.2800-$1.3200 range. Since the euro most recently tested the upper end of the range, the rule of alternation suggests some operators will anticipate a move toward the lower end of the range.

Yen: The dollar broke above the four-month downtrend line. The dollar's resilience against the yen at the end of last week as the stock market melted was particularly impressive. The dollar is flirting with the 200-day moving average, which comes in near JPY79.45. Additional resistance is pegged in the JPY79.70-JPY80.00 range. Support now is seen near JPY79. The dollar's recovery against the yen reduces even further the risk of intervention. We had perceived as a low risk event in the first place, but many observers had assessed a greater probability.

Sterling: Sterling was turned back from the $1.6180 area which corresponds to a retracement objective and trend line resistance, despite some observers have second thoughts about the likelihood that the BOE extends its gilt purchases in a couple of weeks. Initial support is now seen in the $1.5980 area. Sterling's heavy tone may have also been a function of cross rate losses against the euro,which rose to four month highs against it. Provide it hold above GBP0.8100-15, the euro can test the early June high near GBP0.8170-GBP0.8200.

Swiss franc: The dollar held support near CHF0.9200 and appears poised to move higher, judging from the price action and the momentum indicators. The initial target is back into the CHF0.9300-30 range. Frankly, the Swiss National Bank has made the franc a boring currency, however, it is interesting against the Japanese yen. The franc had been trending higher against the yen since the second half of July and that trend accelerated recently. However, a near-term reversal appears to have been traced out in the second half of last week, complimented with a weak close on Friday. There appears to be scope for a 1-2% decline in the coming weeks, even if the longer term trend remains intact.

Canadian dollar: The weaker than expected CPI data at the end of the week reinforced the signal from the Bank of Canada's governor suggesting a more neutral and less hawkish posture at next week's policy meeting. It sent the Canadian dollar lower, with the US dollar reaching 6-week highs. The greenback convincingly took out the down trend line going back to early June, but stalled near the 38.2% retracement objective. A move now above CAD0.9940 could spur further liquidation by the trapped longs and send the greenback toward CAD1.0040.

Australian dollar: After posting strong gains early last week, the Australian dollar reversed lower on Thursday and follow through selling on Friday saw it lose a cent from the week's highs. Technical indicators are mixed. The 5-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average, as it reversed lower, while some momentum indicators have also turned down. Ironically, the 50-day moving average is likely to break below the 200-day moving average next week. Stronger than expected Chinese data, coupled with reserve-related flows and the still attractive yields offered (even if, as we suspect the RBA will deliver another rate cut in early November), prevents sentiment from getting more negative. While some support is seen in the $1.0280-$1.0300 area, stronger support is seen around half a cent lower.

Mexican peso: The dollar has chopped in a MXN12.75-MXN13.00 range for the past month with a single exception. On October 3, the dollar briefly broke down to MXN12.66 before rebounding to finish the day in the aforementioned range. The liquidity, accessibility, yield and the fact that officials are more willing to accept peso strength (within reason) draws speculative and investor interest. Technically, a push higher in the dollar seems likely in the days ahead and this may give the peso bulls a new opportunity.

UPDATE in First Post #1


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Best Regards,
Tsar

that much $$$$ for so much color and they spell EURGBB ???

Give the Difference Colour by grade Pairs http://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/picasso.gif http://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/lol.gif

You've got Eagle-eyed http://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/268.gif




NOTICE :
Spell GBB change with GBP - will be Correction for Next Post... http://ruforum.mt5.com/images/smilies/ok.gif