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Channel surfing!

  • #141
  • Oct 5, 2012 4:40pm Oct 5, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting tmoney5474
Most trades will have a stop between 40-100 pips (depending on the pair). Targets will be 1.5-4 times higher most of the time. Win rate... 60% or so. Less if your not trading around high quality supply or demand zones.

For me, I risk 2.5% for each trade. So for every 10k, risk $250. This means if you have a 75 pip stop I will trade a 33k lot size. $3.30 per pip x 75 pip stop = $247.50. If you follow the rules and get 3 good trades per week at 60% win rate with 2.5% risk per trade and an average win of 1.5 times the stop ($375 average)...
Thanks Tmoney, i know time will show all but it is always good to know the person trading the system on average expects to see.

juicyt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #142
  • Oct 6, 2012 10:51am Oct 6, 2012 10:51am
tmoney,

I've been trying to follow your method and here is what I have experienced-

The channel repaints so much that I can't tell when price has closed outside the channel and then closed inside unless I'm watching it when it happens. The channel repaints itself to fit the price wave.

Also, I don't have a clue what Supply and Demand zones are and how they are determined. They seem to be a very important part of the method.

Any pointers you can give will be appreciated.

Thanks
  • #143
  • Oct 6, 2012 5:10pm Oct 6, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting billbss
tmoney,

I've been trying to follow your method and here is what I have experienced-

The channel repaints so much that I can't tell when price has closed outside the channel and then closed inside unless I'm watching it when it happens. The channel repaints itself to fit the price wave.

Also, I don't have a clue what Supply and Demand zones are and how they are determined. They seem to be a very important part of the method.

Any pointers you can give will be appreciated.

Thanks
This is a great point. The channel doesnt repaint but it is dynamic. Meaning it updates with price. With that said, we are trading a 4H chart so we shouldnt have a ton of changes in either channel throught the week. So, to overcome the moving of the channel this is what you can do. Sunday I will post the charts we are looking at for setups. I will post the start of the week 4H and daily channels and use them throughout the week for our entries. I will draw solid trendlines at each channel line yellow 4H, green daily. This should'nt effect much due to the swing trade aspect of the strategy. You can keep the channels on your chart to use as a guage but to simplify it you can use the start of the week channels as the core channels.

Supply and demand is best seen by looking for abnormal spikes around basing levels in the market. Using the II-Supdem indicator in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post4995420 will help you spot supply and demand. (This indicator does miss some zone but is a good gauge to start with until you understand how to draw your own zones).

Hope this helps. Tomorrow I will post the potential trade setups for the week with the zones we are looking to trade at and the money management that should be used.

Thanks
  • #144
  • Edited Oct 7, 2012 6:35am Oct 6, 2012 8:58pm | Edited Oct 7, 2012 6:35am
Quoting tmoney5474
This is a great point. The channel doesnt repaint but it is dynamic. Meaning it updates with price. With that said, we are trading a 4H chart so we shouldnt have a ton of changes in either channel throught the week. So, to overcome the moving of the channel this is what you can do. Sunday I will post the charts we are looking at for setups. I will post the start of the week 4H and daily channels and use them throughout the week for our entries. I will draw solid trendlines at each channel line yellow 4H, green daily. This should'nt effect...
Thank you.
That answered it.

Thanks again.
  • #145
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:53am Oct 7, 2012 8:53am


Support & Resistance
http://www.babypips.com/school/suppo...esistance.html


Channels
http://www.babypips.com/school/channels.html

Trading the lines
http://www.babypips.com/school/trading-the-lines.html


Risk management
http://www.babypips.com/school/under...sk-management/

The number 1 cause of death of forex traders
http://www.babypips.com/school/under...forex-traders/
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Trading simulator.zip   491 KB | 968 downloads
  • #146
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:57am Oct 7, 2012 8:57am
basic trend line with s and r line to back up and seek its range simply cool trade
  • #147
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:04am Oct 7, 2012 9:04am
some more.........:-)
have a great day!
Attached Images
  • #148
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:34pm Oct 7, 2012 2:34pm
These are the opportunities I see for the upcoming week based on 4H and Daily trend moving in the same direction.

EURUSD

EURAUD (looking for close into the 4H for a short. Trading very close to strong daily supply!

EURGBP

EURJPY

GBPJPY

AUDNZD (may get a move to the 1.2490 level. Then look for a close into the 4H channel and look to trade on the short side)

USDCHF

USDJPY (close to the 4H and daily upper channel. Look for a close above 78.90 and a close back in for a trade on the short side)

NZDUSD (price trading right at the 4H. Look for a close under .8165 and then a close back into the 4H. Look for a trade to the long side)

NZDJPY (closed outside the 4H. GREAT SETUP. Look for a close back above 64.42 for a long trade!)

CHFJPY

Lets make some money this week!
  • #149
  • Edited 5:00pm Oct 7, 2012 4:34pm | Edited 5:00pm
Price opened outside the 4H channel on the NZDUSD. Looking at 3 potential setups to start the week.

Long NZDUSD .8170 is decent demand
Long NZDJPY 64.15 is decent demand
Short EURAUD 1.2850 is very strong supply

Looking to trade once we get a close back into the 4H channel.

(on another note... Why dont these NOPE votes post there thoughts? If your going to vote NOPE. Tell me why...)
  • #150
  • Oct 7, 2012 6:59pm Oct 7, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting tmoney5474
Price opened outside the 4H channel on the NZDUSD. Looking at 3 potential setups to start the week.

Long NZDUSD .8170 is decent demand
Long NZDJPY 64.15 is decent demand
Short EURAUD 1.2850 is very strong supply

Looking to trade once we get a close back into the 4H channel.

(on another note... Why dont these NOPE votes post there thoughts? If your going to vote NOPE. Tell me why...)
Looking to go long NZDUSD in the next hour close if it stays above above 4H channel. Looking good! NZDJPY might also get a trade.
  • #151
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:32pm Oct 7, 2012 8:32pm
Short EURAUD 1.2785 TP 1.2675, SL 1.2885 (closed outside Fridays 4H chart, current trends still down.)

Long NZDJPY 64.45 TP TP 65, SL 64.05
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #152
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:02pm Oct 7, 2012 9:02pm
tmoney,

How did you get your Stop Loss figure on NZDJPY? I came up with 64.140. My entry was identical to yours.
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #153
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:40am Oct 8, 2012 2:40am
Good pics Tmoney, no worries about people having repainting issues if you post like that.

juicyt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #154
  • Oct 8, 2012 4:54am Oct 8, 2012 4:54am
I follow this thread with very enthusiasm.

But, sorry my ignorance.
I continue not to understand the system?!
And how to be profitable!?

Thanks
  • #155
  • Oct 8, 2012 1:10pm Oct 8, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting tmoney5474
Short EURAUD 1.2785 TP 1.2675, SL 1.2885 (closed outside Fridays 4H chart, current trends still down.)

Long NZDJPY 64.45 TP TP 65, SL 64.05
100 pip sl feels very wrong to me on EURAUD. The trend is up big time and you are taking 1:1.1 risk v reward.... I feel like in situations like this (where you are kinda trying to catch top) you should use tighter stop loss, if you are right.. it will probably go your way immediately, if not .. then you might save a bunch of pips.
  • #156
  • Oct 8, 2012 1:17pm Oct 8, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting ARTjoMS
100 pip sl feels very wrong to me on EURAUD. The trend is up big time and you are taking 1:1.1 risk v reward.... I feel like in situations like this (where you are kinda trying to catch top) you should use tighter stop loss, if you are right.. it will probably go your way immediately, if not .. then you might save a bunch of pips.

OK.... You will soon see the power of HUGE supply.... Just watch....
  • #157
  • Oct 8, 2012 5:03pm Oct 8, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting tmoney5474
OK.... You will soon see the power of HUGE supply.... Just watch....
I am not sure that I understand what you mean. Did you wanted to say that you were really confident about that trade so you just didn't want to be taken out prematurely... just in case price goes a bit higher than normally to reverse back!?

P.S. If you are so sure about ''HUGE supply'' then you better put your tp lower...
  • #158
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:07pm Oct 8, 2012 6:07pm
Quoting ARTjoMS
I am not sure that I understand what you mean. Did you wanted to say that you were really confident about that trade so you just didn't want to be taken out prematurely... just in case price goes a bit higher than normally to reverse back!?

P.S. If you are so sure about ''HUGE supply'' then you better put your tp lower...
Sorry, I know the stop is a little wide but if you look back at the June spike high, that level will be defended well. If that then get broken then the trade is wrong. If not... JACKPOT. Remember, we are trading a a 4H chart. Considering people trade a 5-15 min chart use 10-15 pips stops, using a 100 pip stop with a 4H isnt all that wide.

And yes, I am confident in the trade. The daily supply level is key. We already have 100+ pips off the June supply level. We could be moving to 1.24....
  • #159
  • Edited 6:51pm Oct 8, 2012 6:35pm | Edited 6:51pm
Quoting tmoney5474
Short EURAUD 1.2785 TP 1.2675, SL 1.2885 (closed outside Fridays 4H chart, current trends still down.)

Long NZDJPY 64.45 TP TP 65, SL 64.05
OK, so we took a full -45 pip stop in the NZDJPY but we are up +80 on the EURAUD.

AUDNZD (short) and EURCAD (long) setting up nice. Lets see if we can get a close outside the the 4H.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #160
  • Oct 8, 2012 8:19pm Oct 8, 2012 8:19pm
AUDNZD closed outside the 4H channel. Now waiting for a 4H close back into the 4H channel.
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