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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #4,321
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:09am Oct 1, 2012 7:09am
Price is in a really interesting spot.

Nasty double top on the 4h chart (at .9850 which is near the top of the long term bear channel), and it's bumping up again the bottom of the medium term bull channel at .9800.

Good Canadian and US manufacturing numbers which the bulls seem to be holding within the channel... I'll be short on a break below .9800 and long above .9850.
  • #4,322
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:07pm Oct 1, 2012 6:07pm
cad just needs time
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  • #4,323
  • Oct 2, 2012 6:28am Oct 2, 2012 6:28am
She's runnin out of time!

Converging short/med term trend lines, we should see a break either way today.
  • #4,324
  • Oct 3, 2012 3:21am Oct 3, 2012 3:21am
Going more long,
0,9856 is now support
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  • #4,325
  • Oct 3, 2012 5:30am Oct 3, 2012 5:30am
Waiting for the ISM data. Good employment numbers and positive manufacturing could put us right back into the .9800-.9850 range and a better long price. We'll see...
  • #4,326
  • Oct 3, 2012 6:03am Oct 3, 2012 6:03am
hi

long on h4, risk 25 pips, after seeing the RL broken, IB, candle and mac bars moving up 9 sma

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #4,327
  • Oct 3, 2012 7:39am Oct 3, 2012 7:39am
I added longs at several places, always believing we go back to parity and much higher!
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  • #4,328
  • Oct 3, 2012 7:59am Oct 3, 2012 7:59am
Quoting KillerWhale
I added longs at several places, always believing we go back to parity and much higher!
Like I said, ucad just needs some time
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  • #4,329
  • Oct 4, 2012 6:17am Oct 4, 2012 6:17am
Bottom of the bull channel and 38.2 fib level should be some considerable support around .9825 if we continue to break lower through .9850.
  • #4,330
  • Oct 4, 2012 4:07pm Oct 4, 2012 4:07pm
yooo killer!! everything sweet!?! comeŽon also to the eurusd!! we miss you..and miss you vision, insight, tomorrow is NFP and youŽre vision is highly appreciated!! are you on holidays?? take care bro
  • #4,331
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:45am Oct 5, 2012 10:45am
Quoting xandi
yooo killer!! everything sweet!?! comeŽon also to the eurusd!! we miss you..and miss you vision, insight, tomorrow is NFP and youŽre vision is highly appreciated!! are you on holidays?? take care bro
I'm here, just tired a bit of EU thread.
I got in some good longs Ucad at the bottom, 0.9741 and 0.9750.
currently 38 and 29 pips in green.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,332
  • Oct 5, 2012 3:42pm Oct 5, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I'm here, just tired a bit of EU thread.
I got in some good longs Ucad at the bottom, 0.9741 and 0.9750.
currently 38 and 29 pips in green.
good fellows to hear you are allways here!!! someday IŽll pass in california to party with you, and yours bro!! good to hear from you, kisses!
  • #4,333
  • Oct 15, 2012 3:24am Oct 15, 2012 3:24am
Any thoughts anyone?
  • #4,334
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:36am Oct 15, 2012 5:36am
Good US retail sales. U/C seems unaffected. Small 10 pip move so far. We're at the bottom of the short term bull channel (1h chart), so a partial long isn't a bad idea at .9770.
  • #4,335
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:38am Oct 15, 2012 5:38am
yup.I think this is it..now we starting to move up...us data is freaken good.SP500 will break support/Gold will go down to 1715 area..USDCAD this week 0.9940-0.9990 - ATleast im long from today bottom
we have to get over weekly pivot 0.9791 and then SL BE.So we can run safe TP1 0.9929
Quoting Rknigh2
Good US retail sales. U/C seems unaffected. Small 10 pip move so far. We're at the bottom of the short term bull channel (1h chart), so a partial long isn't a bad idea at .9770.
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #4,336
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:47am Oct 15, 2012 5:47am
Quoting eqshack
yup.I think this is it..now we starting to move up...us data is freaken good.SP500 will break support/Gold will go down to 1715 area..USDCAD this week 0.9940-0.9990 - ATleast im long from today bottom
we have to get over weekly pivot 0.9791 and then SL BE.So we can run safe TP1 0.9929

Well... small position for me haha. Pretty looking bullish flag.

The lower highs make me nervous, although we're still contained within the short term bull channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,337
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:56am Oct 15, 2012 5:56am
nice.. :=) i went in big.Cuz we got nowhere to fall..right now..LOL or CAD will come out with good data and we fall to 0.9748 i hope not.Cuz shes lookin so sexy right now
Quoting Rknigh2
Well... small position for me haha. Pretty looking bullish flag.

The lower highs make me nervous, although we're still contained within the short term bull channel.

Attachment
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #4,338
  • Oct 15, 2012 6:03am Oct 15, 2012 6:03am
Quoting eqshack
nice.. :=) i went in big.Cuz we got nowhere to fall..right now..LOL or CAD will come out with good data and we fall to 0.9748 i hope not.Cuz shes lookin so sexy right now

Yes the BOC outlook should be interesting. Domestically I think we'll hear some hawkish tones, North American markets are building confidence again (positive housing, job numbers, manufacturing, and now retail). But they won't be able to discount the "issues in EU and the slowing Chinese demand". Might be good for some pips within the whipsaw!

Like I said, should make for an interesting ride for the CAD.
  • #4,339
  • Oct 16, 2012 4:21am Oct 16, 2012 4:21am
everything goes as we planned.. only problem now is 9881 area aka weekly r2.If we break that we clearly go up and above 0.9900..and daily MACD turnin to bullish side
Quoting Rknigh2
Yes the BOC outlook should be interesting. Domestically I think we'll hear some hawkish tones, North American markets are building confidence again (positive housing, job numbers, manufacturing, and now retail). But they won't be able to discount the "issues in EU and the slowing Chinese demand". Might be good for some pips within the whipsaw!

Like I said, should make for an interesting ride for the CAD.
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #4,340
  • Edited 6:20am Oct 16, 2012 6:02am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting eqshack
everything goes as we planned.. only problem now is 9881 area aka weekly r2.If we break that we clearly go up and above 0.9900..and daily MACD turnin to bullish side

That's the way flag patterns should always work!

Just barely missed my TP at .9880, I'm out at .9870 now. I don't think we have enough momentum to break that tough .9880 resistance. We'll see what market open brings, placing buy orders between .9835-.9850 tentatively.


Also, an interesting thing happened over the last spike up. The USD strength appears to be related to the positive sentiment. i.e. the "risk money" appears to be moving into US investments...

PPS. .9880 right now, depending on how you draw your trendlines, is right at the top of the long term bear channel.

PPPS. The price also appears to be contained within this pretty looking bearish flag on the daily chart (compliments of Happypip at babypips)... Long story short, if you're bias is long U/C, I would at the very least be looking at taking some profits. If your bias is short U/C, this price has a promising R:R.

http://forums.babypips.com/attachmen...3&d=1350367756
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