Australian Bear Raid

Per my plan above on RBA CUT ENTRY I have been filled mostly on everything. Now looking for some news traders to take profit so I can sell the minor retraces for the eventual move lower.

Position trade will be held for several weeks or more. Still have another cut coming before the end of year ladies and gents

PRICES for iron ore will need to bounce back further to relieve the rating pressure facing some of the industry's biggest producers, although companies willing to defer investment in mining projects should be able to regain their financial footing, Standard and Poor's Ratings Services has said.

In a report published today, the rating agency said it doesn't believe iron ore prices will climb much further in the near term, and despite an incremental recovery in the next two years, they are likely to be less than $100 a tonne beyond 2015 as Australia and Brazil ramp up output of the raw steelmaking ingredient.

Nice mate i didnt added on the cut istself allwel positions running ok now.

Seems like euraud is also a strong gainer on this. got this 1.0160 area as first decent suport medium 1.02.

But think whe will break the rates did you saw the 1y1y rate spreads the divergence i posted yesterday?

Regards

http://f.doctm.com/e31d43c1/k7o5.pdf

I did that is a very interesting chart never saw that before. So it tends to follow lower on this?

Well as you probally know fx most all about rates well there is no 100% certain that it will follow but the 1year pointing to more rate cut acording the rate spreads. Westpac sayed they expect another cut on nov not sure about this 1 but will see i tend to take profit on some Always hard for me to hold still a thing i need to learn better especially with this low volatilty harder to hold. See what she does here if i see sign of break this little down range on 15min to upside i take profits on some and would reshort at point of release around 1.0370

END OF NY PnL summary.
Per the RBA cut yesterday I have been short and filled on most all of my first leg shorts for the next coming cut in December. AUD/USD took out some very key supports and so did AAPL AND ES. I expect AUD/USD to come back a bit tonight if trade data is better than expected so I bot 30 AAPL 670's weekly calls @ 2.24 for a hedge tomorrow in case we move upward on AUD.USD

Currently the calls are trading at 3.45 so the open tomorrow they could explode to the upside but this is purely a weekly hedge for AU in case we retrace tomorrow.

Currency sheet below and PnL

clue for u..

Oct 3rd 2012 around 6 pm NY time

AU Bond update

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...003-26y8x.html

RBA sees cash deficit at A$ 2,856 million.

ANZ decides rates for their bank next Friday and the others will announce afterwards

Australia sells A$ 500M of 4.25% bonds maturing July 2017.

AU ECON: HIA New Home Sales (M/M) -5.3% in August vs -5.6% in July.

New high for 2012. ASX 200 hits 4449.6pts


Next year shorts on equities will be the great trades for me. This rest of the year AUD currency

FEB 6, 2012 4.25% Upside Surprise
Apr 30 2012 3.75 lowered from 4.25%
JUNE 4, 2012 3.50% Lowered from 3.75%

CHINA
PMI 51 Feb 29 2012
PMI 53.3 Apr 30 2012
PMI 50.2 June 30 2012

CHINA
GDP Jan 16 2012 8.9%
GDP April 12 2012 8.1%
GDP July 12 2012 7.6%

AUSTRALIA
Trade Feb 1 2012 1.71B
Trade Apr 3 2012 -0.48B
Trade Jun 7, 2012 -0.20B
Trade Sep 6, 2012 -0.56B
Trade Oct 2 2012 -2.03B (ouch)

AUSTRALIA
GDP q/q Dec 6 2011 1.0%
GDP q/q March 6 2012 0.4%
GDP q/q June 5 2012 1.3%
GDP q/q Sep 4 2012 0.6%

Everyone who is saying 1.10 or higher you have to look at the fundamentals even if you’re a technical trader because here is what we know now as Fact. I just don’t see AUD/USD 1.10 or higher unless Demand picks up in Mining or China makes a miraculous turnaround with their stimulus which I agree has not taken full affect yet. Or the coming cuts signals a fresh spree of growth from Australia with cheaper credit but you also have to worry about the foreign capital will they still stick around?

1. All the big Central banks are in with Stimulus, China can come in with additional Stimulus but it will be like the 2008 package which will add a few GDP’s on AU but it will too fade quickly after a few months.
2. Look at the The Metals when AUD/USD topped out at 1.1079ish and see where there at now including Coal and Iron ore. Gold is not a true correlation with AUD/USD and has not been for several months if it was than you would see a better degree of performance from AUD alongside with Gold.
3. Fundamental numbers for Both China and Australia in the Trade and Output sector were far better at the high than today. World GDP was higher also now most countries are in Contraction much more than Aug last year.

Internals of the trade data aren't pretty. Non-rural goods $933m for the month. Big downward revision to July

Ratings agency Moody's has just downgraded Tasmania's rating to Aa1 from Aaa

You've convinced me that I really need to learn fundies.

Start tightening stops up on Share Market Longs especially in ASX. Equity Asset Allocations for SMSFs should be reduced more for PHG Members


Thanks check your inbox I sent you a great book from a former dealer who discusses fundamentals from basics to the PPP and other models of forecasting theory

S&P warns of little iron ore respite for miners

Excuse my ignorance, I imagine SMSF is self managed super fund but wasn't sure about PHG?