Australian Bear Raid

Forex and Cindy thank you for the input and I will watch that video shortly. As for the terms of trade I think if China can put the money to use not in their losing stell/iron producers or the same real estate sector than yes the boost will be huge and could start another wave of China growth.

I am worried though that if RBA does not act it wont be the Mining/Housing/Banking sector that will bring down the house of cards but the Retail/Credit/Gov project sector is where we will see the first shoe to drop.

The day we see a drop in Terms of trade that is a head turner and then we will see delayed projects ever more and so on and so forth as I have mentioned before. Right now that is not the main theme as China/Stimulus/Interest rate are still great arguments for Long AUD

So far not much follow through on ASX from yesterday's higher close. We will see how we end up at the close.

The Australian share market has opened lower.
At 1020 AEST on Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 11.4 points, or 0.26 per cent, at 4,372.8, while the broader All Ordinaries index was down 9.6 points, or 0.22 per cent, at 4,393.2.
On the ASX 24, the December share price index futures contract was down 10 points at 4,376, with 8,050 contracts traded.

Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.2 per cent over August 2012, after rising by 0.2 per cent over July. Over the year to August, total credit rose by 4.1 per cent.
Housing credit increased by 0.3 per cent over August, following an increase of 0.3 per cent over July. Over the year to August, housing credit rose by 4.8 per cent.
Other personal credit decreased by 0.3 per cent over August, after falling by 0.3 per cent over July. Over the year to August, other personal credit decreased by 1.4 per cent.
Business credit decreased by 0.1 per cent over August, after growing by 0.1 per cent over July. Over the year to August, business credit increased by 4.0 per cent.

westpac expect tuesday first cut migh postion myself before the event only damm china is playing in the background weaker pmi nrs will raise speculation on stimilus from china.. Well might hedge with gold then lol

Per the structure of the thread: ASX overnight news and points of interest (posting earlier than normal as I will be busy a few hours from now)

Factory shutting down 50 jobs gone
Population data jobs rise
Australia wealth jumps by 325B since March???
Miners Merge for increased synergy
Budget fix needed to avoid shock
Oil and Natural gas takeover plays in Australia
Overnight commodities (Freight, Commodities, Inventories) Close: Iron ore 10420 Week so far we are down 4.5%
Au Borrowers in a hurry to pay off mortgages
RPData weekly House Price update

Market Wrap Up: 9/23-9/28

· The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index added 2.8 points to 4,387.0, for an overall 7.1 per cent gain in the third quarter.
· Investors remained cautious on China, Australia's biggest resources customer, as Fitch Ratings cut its 2012 growth forecast for China from 8 per cent to 7.8 per cent. After halting production at a loss-making plant, China's biggest listed steelmaker Baoshan Iron & Steel expressed doubt that attempts to prop up the slowing economy would revive demand in the world's biggest metals consumer
· Car makers reel under $A pressure
· Subdued credit leaves room for rate cut

· House Prices Surge in September
· For the First time in 2 months AUD 10-yr fell below 3%
· BHP Request extension to Olympic Dam Agreement but how to fund not sure
· Australians ready to buy homes still
· Retail Sector NEEDS a cut desperately. David Jones (Department store) profits fell
· Standard & Poor’s Downgrades South Australia (Credit rating now at A from AA+)
· West Australia cuts Costs on deficit Fears
· Anglo American (3rd Largest Coal producer) cuts coking coal output
· China shuts down another Steel Mill on losing operations call in AU
· Reasons for a Rate Cut -Yes argument
· Reasons for a Rate Cut-No argument
· Australia-Malaysia FTA (free trade agreement) takes effect next year
· Factory shutting down 50 jobs gone
· Population data jobs rise
· Australia wealth jumps by 325B since March???
· Miners Merge for increased synergy
· Budget fix needed to avoid shock
· Oil and Natural gas takeover plays in Australia
· Au Borrowers in a hurry to pay off mortgages
· RPData weekly House Price update



PnL for the week. I am going to get an excel sheet compiled as it will detail more not just entry and exit but drawdown, peak to valley, variance ect.. It will be up next week. As for this week some levels like Wednesday adding to short was not the best move but did sell more at the near top before London last night so caught this Friday move..As for rate cut still on the fence with the world but I most likely will take off the shorts ahead of the decision. This week has been a failure I have open profits but my entry level mid week was crap so I am not too happy with my trading this week.

This Saturdays: Free write I will discuss Australia's Sub prime lending and the way Loan securitisation structures work and that AU housing is looking more and more like US before the crash

Report still pending on Subprime I wanted better source and numbers than the original.


PnL update closing out bit by bit before Minutes. I don't think they will cut but if they do I can always get back in. Otherwise we are way oversold since Friday and I have taken the majority off the table waiting for a new overbought level to get back in.

Just closed the rest I am now flat across the board. I will most likely wait to get reshort later this week or the upper 1.04 area..

I will not step in the way of the RBA and if they cut I am loading up for what will be another cut End of year where we could see 1.01-1

Ben is done talking fade the hopium!!
Took a small short for EOD fade that could occur on ES and AUD. Nothing fancy here just pure hype selling.

Flat!! was looking for a fad the hope but nothing came of it at least not in AU ES DOW that was another story.

Anyways no positions going into RBA tonight. If we get a cut look for a hold short into end of year Adding and riding to 1.0050

No cut than yes we could rally most of October than the Cut is virtually assured in Nov meeting for a new position short.

This is the day I have been waiting for or it will be a hold for me on the short Side for AUD/USD.

I have been shorting in and out for months capturing moves here and there for some nice profits and a not so nice loss a few weeks ago. If we get this cut I will be short into January and hold an 'actual' position trade until fundamentals pick up on the Aussie side. There are several key items on the horizon that will see me add to a short on AUD/USD

1. Iron ore based of several models I have seen and ran show that we won't see that exploding growth in Copper/Iron/Coal/Aluminum/Palladium for at least 4months so that will be a hindrance on AU

2. Corporations are not going to be expanding at the rate we have seen since mid 2000's and were about to experience a reversion to the mean on Trade data.

3. Layoffs are coming slowly but surely. Homeowners even though they pay off a higher percentage of their mortgage than other countries earlier first time home buyers are still the key issue to watch and they are the ones that carries the housing side not live in/investment side.

4. If layoffs occur and profits are much less than the average since mid 2000's you will see less tax receipts coming to Treas/Gov and that will cause further delays in Federal projects not to mention a failure to meet Surplus by End of Year.

5. The interest rate will be cut at least twice we know this because it has been stated direct from the RBA the question lies will foreign capital who has picked up the majority of the Mining boom stay with the lower interest rate or will funds come out and back into Emerging/Europe?

Here are my levels for Entry provided the cut comes In. I will be shorting AU futures but for the sake of simplicity I will stick to AUD/USD on the chart analysis.

1. First Sell stop @ 1.0340 SL: 1.0410 (If RBA cuts and its a sell fakout I will be out sooner)

2. Normally the News traders like to hammer one direction or the other for the first hour or so after the release I will have another sell the Next hourly bar open at the given Market price. if we close within a bearish stance

3. 3rd Sell stop will be at 1.0315 as this is below the bigger support

From there we should see a move to 78.6% 1.0272 than some consolidation and then to 1.0225. And possibly a spike down on hourly to 1.02 even which I EXPECT BUYERS TO COME IN AND CONSOLIDATE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

The targets above are providing A. We get a cut B. That the cut move lower is not a fakeout sell and we move higher a few hours after.

October cut and another December cut will signal a longer sell for me but if we don't get it tonight I will be looking for NOV/FEB or NOV/JAN cuts.

Here is the Charting side of the Targets based off of ABC correction and Fib side.

Tommorow the big day lets see faded fridays upmove and added today small 1 so running with ya. Westpac expect 0.25% cut tommorow. Other side of the coin is the china story i expect 8th nov some form of stimilus to be anounced so maybe around that time longs will see first this .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/18th_Na...Party_of_China

http://www.zapaday.com/event/466234/...+Congress.html

Forex good points China could come out with more stimulus plus the already announced tranche has not been deployed yet at least not in the econ reports. We could see an interesting time ahead with looser credit in a series of Cuts for Australia when they eventually do come

Professor Ross Garnaut on Australia and the coming Living standards his take:

…the “salad days” of the boom were rapidly becoming “dog days” of faltering incomes and living standards in Australia…“We do have to recognise that we’re in for fairly tough times”…
He said Australia’s terms of trade, or income from exports, would be hit by three “mutually reinforcing negatives” under way in China.
The first was a shift in China’s economy away from a focus on heavy industrial investment and exports, which have driven metals and energy demand. The second was a wave of internal reforms including the move towards lower carbon emissions that would cruel demand for Australian thermal coal. The third was the current “cyclical” downturn that was likely to continue.
“It’s an accident they’re coming all at once, but they are,” Professor Garnaut said, adding that China’s leaders showed no signs of wanting to repeat the post-GFC stimulus boost that helped turbocharge Australia’s terms of trade from 2009 to 2011…
“The challenge for us is that when the terms of trade were very high, we lifted our living standards up to the limit . . . and we didn’t leave ourselves much margin” for the subsequent fall, Professor Garnaut said…
“We have to go through a long period of expenditure restraint” that could last “half a dozen years or more”, he said, referring to future government spending.

Housing has the largest monthly rise in two years

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/busi...002-26wen.html

Forescue Founder back in the drivers seat after court overturns eviction on misleading investors in 2004

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...r&dlvrit=56943

Commodities Daily (iron ore coal ect)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/108651615/...ily-716-021012