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Trend following system results

  • #81
  • Sep 15, 2012 4:25pm Sep 15, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting AndyG
Hello Hugh

I just wanted to thank you for this thread and congratulate you on the results so far. This has given me an idea that has worked quite well in the last week - its a bit of a variation on your method. I use the DC median line for reference and RSI for confirmation. Last week netted 215 pips with 545 pips still in open orders. Back testing a few pairs for about a year and a half also looked good. Thanks again.
AndyG
Interesting ideas Andy, thanks for posting. Can you clarify how you use the other indicators?
  • #82
  • Sep 15, 2012 4:46pm Sep 15, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting Athravan
Hi all,

Not sure if its appropriate to put this in your thread Hugh, but if you want me not to do so in future, then just let me know - I won't be offended!

I've messed around with EAs and small timeframes since I started demo-ing forex in March without any real success. I've since turned my attention to Daily charts and have been inspired by the Turtle's mechanical system.

As such, on Wednesday 12th Sept, I started trading the top 8 forex pairs using breakouts of the 55 Donchian Channel. I check the charts twice a day (what a relief to trading...
Completely appropriate, thank you for taking the time to post it. This thread is partly about my system results but also can be somewhere for a wider discussion of trend following trading systems in general and Donch channels in particular.

I'm trading slightly differently than you as I am waiting for the price to close over the channels rather than just touch and I am using subsequent breaks of the 55 channel for my add ons.

You are definitely on the right track though. I would say 2 atr for the inital stop may be too big for forex pairs. I have done a lot of back testing on this and 1 atr seems to be the most profitable setting for a lot of pairs. In fact not all pairs trade profitably this way.

As to your struggles.

Not sure what you mean by number 1. Are you getting your buy stops mixed up with your buy limits? If one doesn't work then try the other.

2, let them run. The whole point of the system is that you let your profits run until the end of the trend. This will definitely mean that sometimes you will give back huge profits when the trend reverses sharply but over time it will be more profitable to stay with the trend because you just don't know when it will end.

3, Vantage offer a few more instruments and they are an STP broker which I like. I have looked at a few more brokers but a lot of the ones tha offer cfd's on metatrader are market makers which puts me off a bit.

Good luck with your trading and stick with it, you are very close to getting it right.
  • #83
  • Sep 15, 2012 4:47pm Sep 15, 2012 4:47pm
I am on holiday for a week now. I will be back on the following Monday. I have a friend who will be running the system for me so things should still be ticking over while I am away.

Good luck to everyone, see you when I get back.
  • #84
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:35am Sep 19, 2012 11:35am
On holiday but just checked in. Oil trades closed out for a loss but everything else making up for it. Still 38 percent up.
  • #85
  • Sep 26, 2012 12:53pm Sep 26, 2012 12:53pm
All pulling back a little. Maybe will take off again or maybe not. The stop losses should be trailing soon so will lock in some profit. Still a good return in a short space of time and this is exactly what I expected to happen so I'm not upset about the pullback from the equity peaks. All good experience of trend following.
  • #86
  • Sep 26, 2012 1:35pm Sep 26, 2012 1:35pm
nice journal and great results.i just want to point out that i think you are trading pairs that are highly correlated.so your 1% risk may actually be closer to 5% risk.this might create huge drawdowns in future.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #87
  • Sep 26, 2012 2:21pm Sep 26, 2012 2:21pm
I have posted a notice for all followers of my threads here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6045500
  • #88
  • Sep 26, 2012 2:22pm Sep 26, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting pemully
nice journal and great results.i just want to point out that i think you are trading pairs that are highly correlated.so your 1% risk may actually be closer to 5% risk.this might create huge drawdowns in future.
Thanks for pointing that out, I am aware of certain correlations at play there. I am in the process of refining the portfolio. I think it is difficult to come up with a portfolio that isn't in some way correlated. I think the best thing to do is to reduce the risk so that the portfolio drawdown is limited.
  • #89
  • Sep 27, 2012 8:28am Sep 27, 2012 8:28am
A statement about the move to the commercial section is here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post6047983
  • #90
  • Oct 1, 2012 3:30am Oct 1, 2012 3:30am
Here are some screenshots of the current open trades. All doing ok.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold donch ff 01 10 12.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: silver donch ff 01 10 12.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500 donch ff 01 10 12.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #91
  • Oct 1, 2012 3:57am Oct 1, 2012 3:57am
You got 5 stars from me Hugh. It's pretty rare seeing a commercial member having a LIVE proof of his system. Good luck!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #92
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:00am Oct 1, 2012 4:00am
Quoting soso
You got 5 stars from me Hugh. It's pretty rare seeing a commercial member having a LIVE proof of his system. Good luck!
Thank you very much, I appreciate it.
  • #93
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:12am Oct 3, 2012 9:12am
Lots of sideways action at the moment for the instruments I've got trades on. Some sideways action is ok, it gives the 20 Donch channel the chance to catch up and pulls the stop losses in tighter.
  • #94
  • Oct 3, 2012 11:22pm Oct 3, 2012 11:22pm
Sp500 about to trail well past break even. Here are charts of gold and silver too so you know what they look like at the moment.
Attached Images
  • #95
  • Oct 3, 2012 11:39pm Oct 3, 2012 11:39pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Sp500 about to trail well past break even. Here are charts of gold and silver too so you know what they look like at the moment.
I don't want to interfere with your trading or anything but I am curious. The XAUUSD chart is showing signs of consolidation and it sits on resistance. I think in the book you mentioned on the beginning of this thread there is a rejection rule for such situations. I hope I am not asking too much questions about your strategy but what is your plan on this? Do you plan to keep it going as long as your trailing stop is not hit or do you have other plans getting out with more profits intact?
  • #96
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:18am Oct 4, 2012 2:18am
Quoting KMidas
I don't want to interfere with your trading or anything but I am curious. The XAUUSD chart is showing signs of consolidation and it sits on resistance. I think in the book you mentioned on the beginning of this thread there is a rejection rule for such situations. I hope I am not asking too much questions about your strategy but what is your plan on this? Do you plan to keep it going as long as your trailing stop is not hit or do you have other plans getting out with more profits intact?
Hi, ask as many questions as you like, I'm always happy to answer. I don't use all of the rules set out in Courtney Smith's book. In backtesting I found it profitable to just follow the original Donchian channel system rules and let the trades run and be stopped out by the stop loss or a close above/below the 20 channel. Sometimes this will give quite a bit of profit back but sometimes it will keep you in a trade longer and therefore make you more money. You can never tell when a trend will end so I prefer to hold on and let it do it's thing.
  • #97
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:47am Oct 4, 2012 7:47am
Do you add to open positions?
  • #98
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:49am Oct 4, 2012 7:49am
Quoting maildigger
Do you add to open positions?
With certain pairs but not gold and silver. They didn't work out profitable that way.
  • #99
  • Oct 4, 2012 8:05am Oct 4, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Hugh Briss
With certain pairs but not gold and silver. They didn't work out profitable that way.
Could you explain/describe how you do it for the s&p500?
  • #100
  • Oct 4, 2012 12:04pm Oct 4, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting maildigger
Could you explain/describe how you do it for the s&p500?
Yes, when the 55 donch channel has been flat for at least 3 days in a row and the price closes above/below it then that triggers an add on trade.
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