Anyone ever trade pure chop? | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What is your best chop indicator to keep you out of choppy markets? 45 replies

Good Chop Indicator 8 replies

Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries 178 replies

identify a chop 0 replies

Attachments: Anyone ever trade pure chop?
Exit Attachments

Anyone ever trade pure chop?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 26, 2012 5:32pm Sep 26, 2012 5:32pm
This is kind of funny... I made most of my money last night into US open trading this pattern right here...

First I was trying to feel out the bottom buying on pushes into resistance and selling into reversal up candles and luckily caught the big pop! Then I was buying inside bars and dips around median, and then continued buying dips as the move turned over, but adjusting buys lower for the downward momentum cycle.


God I love high volatility with a slow trend... With bars ranging around 10 pips and a downtrend speed of 5 pips per 50 minutes it's very hard to lose buying low and selling high...

I passed out asleep before the pattern turned organized into US session. My theory about the volatility in this situation was that the market was transitioning from EU traders to US traders and once the market was dominated by US traders into US session the emotional cycles reorganized again.

That big dip there that occurred afterward was because of traders/speculators buying the euro because of the bad us housing market news. They blew out because they were buying good news for the EUR/USD against a slight downtrend creating a temporary long speculative bubble in the EUR/USD. Hmmm... Maybe the cycles and candle counts reorganized afterward because the news was released. Who knows who cares.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chop.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Reorganized.png Size: 37 KB
  • #2
  • Sep 26, 2012 5:51pm Sep 26, 2012 5:51pm
I tell you something interesting... I definitely notice I make the most money when I just forget about predicting the market... And just buy or sell at the proper levels and leave it up to luck how far the market is going to push the other direction in the next pulse.

Slow volatile downtrend late in it's lifetime... Buy support, see what happens... Buy support, see what happens on the reversal candle and sell toward the end of it's filling... Repeat over and over like a bricklayer!
  • #3
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:09pm Sep 26, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting MasterGamble
I tell you something interesting... I definitely notice I make the most money when I just forget about predicting the market... And just buy or sell at the proper levels and leave it up to luck how far the market is going to push the other direction in the next pulse.

Slow volatile downtrend late in it's lifetime... Buy support, see what happens... Buy support, see what happens on the reversal candle and sell toward the end of it's filling... Repeat over and over like a bricklayer!
Remember that price is usually ranging more than trending... most ppl tend to trade higher TF's hence the range. WHen Chops becomes big it means more money is flowing into higher TF's generally macro hedge funds and players are the ones pushing price in the market anything over a week... so you want to pay attention to those big chops... Either way I think there is merit to trading S/R blindly because market is playing mind games with ppl while you just trade it without emotion. At the end it will breakout you just have to defien your R/R so that if it does fake out or break out you don't care... but if it does respect your level then you still win.

Ofcourse during bigger chops volatility picks up and your previous MM wouldn't work... ie S/R isnt respected within 25 pips.. but I think if you think in terms of ratio's then you can expand your entry criteria and should still work.

THen you can apply a trend strategy once you believe your range is done you can simply place a trade and let it ride.
  • #4
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:21pm Sep 26, 2012 7:21pm
Could you please start a thread where you post your findings and opinion. Starting a lot of threads isn't helping you or other traders understand you better.
  • #5
  • Sep 26, 2012 9:14pm Sep 26, 2012 9:14pm
Sorry sidhujag... I never trend trade.

When I'm trading a trend I'm not even trend trading. I'm either buying low or fading high... A lot of times doing both... Really depends upon the situation.

The longest ill ever hold a position is for three daily candles in equities.

In Forex I'm usually in position for three to five candles at most. Holding times depend upon which timeframe the trade setup came off of... 5m, 10m, or 20m.

When counter trending I am usually only in position for two to three candles at most.
  • #6
  • Sep 26, 2012 9:19pm Sep 26, 2012 9:19pm
When I trade with trend I buy dips and sell into impulses upward.

If I'm wrong about the trend and no buyers come after a few candles it's no big deal... Scratch it with a few pips profit most all of the time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: downImpulse.png Size: 53 KB
  • #7
  • Sep 26, 2012 9:24pm Sep 26, 2012 9:24pm
Trends are a joke for the most part... I mean honestly...

Look at this current trend... A velocity of 2.5 pips per 50 minutes, and 3.5 pips per 100 minutes is what it's been averaging...

Are you f-ing kidding me? Who would waste time trading that...

Now... Luckily this trend has enough range you can actually capture some nice 10+ pip impulse moves in it...


Why would someone hold position for FOUR hours in a slow trend to capture the amount of pips they could get in four candles?


I don't understand trend traders... You know how much event risk your taking on? Just scalp... It's more profitable and predictable... Little event risk!
  • #8
  • Sep 26, 2012 11:25pm Sep 26, 2012 11:25pm
well u are right there are times to trade however if ur holding a trade at be u never know when volume will come and help your position.
Now when do u get out when the dip becomes a selloff? Whats ur sl? how often does it work out? on avg what pct is ur to to ur sl. These metrics will evaluate your performance.
  • #9
  • Sep 27, 2012 1:02am Sep 27, 2012 1:02am
Quoting MasterGamble
I tell you something interesting... I definitely notice I make the most money when I just forget about predicting the market...

This is one of the key points it took me so long to understand: my predictive ability over many trades is close to zero. I think this is true for most people also but, of course, our egos and intelligence don't want to admit it. Once I accepted that, took everything that looked like a good trade to me in an equal fashion, and focused on managing the exits depending on how the trade turned out, I started being consistently profitable.
  • #10
  • Sep 27, 2012 9:53am Sep 27, 2012 9:53am
Quoting MasterGamble
I tell you something interesting... I definitely notice I make the most money when I just forget about predicting the market... And just buy or sell at the proper levels and leave it up to luck how far the market is going to push the other direction in the next pulse.

Slow volatile downtrend late in it's lifetime... Buy support, see what happens... Buy support, see what happens on the reversal candle and sell toward the end of it's filling... Repeat over and over like a bricklayer!
I never predict and barely take notice of the news...have my patterns and run with them. Less distracting.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #11
  • Sep 27, 2012 10:27am Sep 27, 2012 10:27am
I have found from observation that the 125 point (12.5 pip) lines, are pretty well respected when trading EU in a slow moving range. It's easy enough using a Grid tool to set it at 125 points and trade the 5 minute ranges.

Quoting sidhujag
Ofcourse during bigger chops volatility picks up and your previous MM wouldn't work... ie S/R isnt respected within 25 pips.. but I think if you think in terms of ratio's then you can expand your entry criteria and should still work.
I use IBFx for my charting, but Oanda for trading the 5min ranges. It's pretty tough to scalp happily with a 2 pip spread on IBFx.

Regards,

Eric.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_5m_20120926.gif Size: 25 KB
" Be always employed in something useful." - Benjamin Franklin
  • #12
  • Last Post: Sep 28, 2012 2:50am Sep 28, 2012 2:50am
hardest part i found with short term trading was when is a market a market... changes so quick... you’re in chop mode making money then bang it breaks out cutting you up... same when it's in a trend and it goes into a range... after a few trades changing to the new market u have lost most if not all your gains.
0 traders viewing now