FX Analysis: The IPA Trade Methodology

Traders, thought this quote from Dennis Gartman today was interesting:

"Since August 3rd the Dow has traded in a range of 128 points (or 0.98%). In percentage terms that is the narrowest 8 day trading range since at least 1950"

Media Alert: Aspen's Todd Gordon will be appearing on CNBC's Fast Money Half-Time Report at 12:40 PM EST (5:40 GMT)

For those that attended (even those that did not)....

If you took the trade (short AUD/USD) on Wednesday you should be up roughly a 100+ pips! Is there still profit left in this trade? Watch this 6 min video and find out!

http://www.screencast.com/t/4ZctpY2a7s

Traders: News Flash!

It is August 28th and the last week of summer - trading in here can be dangerous to ones trading account. See explanation below:

This is only the 4th time since the birth of the credit crisis that the daily range on the S&P cash has broken below the 9.0 handle. This is typically a support level, which means after the 9.0 level is breached for a few days S&P volatility tends to mean revert to the 20-30 points per day. Put most simply - for traders like us volatility is our best friend. Sub-10 handle ranges are challenging to put up profits in these slow grinding markets.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...2SPX_daily.png

Our 2 biggest profitable months since we kept keeping results were March 2011 and September 2011 that are both highlighted in green. Both of these green highlights isolate an expansion in range (volatility). We always harp on this key statistic, but it's important point to keep in mind;

You will make 70% of your profits during only 30% of the time.

70% of the time we trade with capital preservation as the top priority. During the remaining 30% of the time we trade to aggressively grow capital. Right now we trading with capital preservation (and recently moderate growth), but when the S&P recaptures the 20+ range per day we will quickly shift gears to aggressive capital growth.

Take some time and relax before markets get busy again after Labor Day.

Hey Traders, our Director of Client Education - Bart Marek - will be hosting:

Trading Gold with Elliott Wave Webinar Part 2!

at 4 PM EST. There is no cost to attend and you can register below:

Traders, last week we took a look at trading Gold with Elliott Wave during our Wednesday 'What's Working at Aspen' webinar. Following our bullish call on Gold we now see the precious metal higher by 2%, will Gold continue to break out of it's year long slumber. Join us today at 4PM ET and find out!

Register Here: https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/184182958

Traders, not exactly an FX play here - although the implications could be dramatic across many asset classes, including FX. Nonetheless, 10-year Treasury rates are beginning to sneak higher - they bear watching and could offer up a nice long trade in the likes of TBT

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....5.12rates.png

big push higher in yields today; TBT up 3%!

Here is a 40-minute video recorded yesterday (Wednesday) that looks at EUR/USD through the lens of Elliott Wave and the IPA Trading Methodology. Nice to see that 24-hours later - the analysis isolated a nice long opportunity if one was so inclined.

Watch Video

The clip below is from CNBC's Friday edition of Money in Motion where Todd discusses the AUD/USD and the dynamics at play when compared to the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng.

Watch Video

Nightly Video:

Some weakness in the S&P's today and continued weakness seen in AUD/USD and oil....what's next?

Watch Video

investors finally exiting the high yield investments. Most are probably expecting USD weakness from QE3, but it happens to be the opposite. Besides everyones favorite -GOLD - Great info on your previous posts.

For now they are hitting the exits - still hesitant to play a very bearish tone in here. Wrong or right, The Fed is putting a floor in the market. I am aware of the long-term dangers but need to play the game now, and for now, largely speaking, it pays to keep a risk on posture for the most part.

I continue to watch gold not only as a barometer for imminent FX and equity moves but also just as a pure play by either buying the futures or an ETF like GLD.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...2gold6hour.jpg

Nightly Video:

Is this S&P rally doomed?

Click here to find out

Not looking good for the bulls here thus far.....

Hey Traders - I did a webinar with FX Street yesterday where I discussed the current market environment - a possible trade set-up in EUR/AUD as well as our trade selection process. Click the link below to view the webinar - it will take you to FX Street's web page:

Watch Webinar

Traders, whether you trade FX, equities or futures, the S&P 500 is a key driver that knowledgeable traders track closely.

With that said, despite S&P weakness, we may very well be approaching a key support/turning point. The implication for long positions in FX, stocks and futures will be impacted.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...0.12spFLAT.png

Do Your Trade As A Market Maker or Market Taker?

http://www.aspentrading.com/newsdeta...px?t=a&id=4957

At the FX & Options Expo in September I sat down with Tim Bourquin to discuss the various components of the trading approach at Aspen Trading Group:

You Can Never Have Enough Perspective

How to Play QE3 with Forex

Commodities to Be Excited About

CNBC 10/25/2012 - Aspen's Todd Gordon discusses President Obama's impact on the US dollar and crude oil during his first term

http://www.aspentrading.com/freeresearch/?id=5129

This is a IMA (inter-market analysis) % change overlay chart (see below) of Gold, AUDUSD, USDJPY, NOKUSD, EURUSD, and S&P futures since November 4th. There is a clear disconnect / breakdown of the normal direct correlations between commodities, FX, and equities we are used to seeing and trading. Two important observations:

1) Risk FX- across the board- is NOT breaking down with the falling stock markets

2) Gold is NOT only NOT breaking down with this fall in stocks, it's rallying.

This tells us there is a very important theme running through the global FX market originating from the US. In light of our massive fiscal issues including our looming debt ceiling and fiscal cliff, the world is NOT treating the USD as a safe haven currency at this point. That's why it is so hard to be short AUDUSD and even EURUSD (with all that's going on in Greece) with a Dow that falls 200+ points in a single session.

Global FX traders are telling us they will NOT buy the US dollar as a safe haven currency because the escape from our massive fiscal issues will most certainly be inflationary in nature,,, and they are buying gold right to prove it. There are many stories making the rounds that China is buying gold to hedge the Yuan, but there is no way that story is big enough to counter this sustained sell-off in stocks citing the prior direct relationship off stocks and gold. There is something more here...and it's major red flag that's being waved over the greenback.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...imaOVERLAY.png