Anyone see that stop removal last night?

Some stop removals are so blatantly obvious it's hilarious... Personally. I like to fade them when I see them triggered during low volume. At other times when a lot of traders are watching the market the move tends to suck in too many speculators behind it to go for an immediate fade.

I wonder how much money it took to do that... Half a billion? A couple hundred million? I'm sure the banks know.

Anyway, let me explain the dynamics of a stop removal and how it makes money for those that do it.

If the market is chopping sideways building up stops on each side and a big player decides to remove the stops in low volume... They start bidding and push it until it triggers. They let it drift up/down for a bit and let people see the move and start getting sucked in. Then they start selling hard and fast...

They then try to push it down VERY fast because time is money when it comes to pushing the market away from it's supply/demand equilibrium. When the stops are hit to the downside they quickly begin to cover their short position created during the drive down... Then they move any remaining position steadily out of the market.

Don't just assume every single stop hit is going to fail. If the trend is in the direction of the move momentum can continue for a while. Also, early EU session when lots of traders are around there are plenty of people around to chase moves and drive them a bit farther.


It's hilarious... I swear every single day there are a ridiculous amount of buy and sell stops on each side of the market on the EU open... Don't these people know they are going to get taken out before the market is left to trend in it's natural direction?

I am sure it is a lot more complicated than that.....

in a market that handles trillions in liquidity....one big player trying to push price around can get killed by
A other big players f*cking him over
B many little players
C random viariables


do not think that the market is composed of people hunting you, and playing tricks , the direction is known by them, or they move the price.....that is baloney

ask UBS and their 2 billion dollar loss.

EVERYONE is subjected to the market.....some know how to play it, analyze it, or cover their risk better than others.

Here is an example of a stop hit during early session when lots of traders and speculators are watching intently... Tends to suck in some people.

Also, here on the 1m you can see how visible they are. When you are watching the market as you trade you can detect them easily as the market will spike 10+- pips in the blink of an eye as it passes above/below a bunch of prior swing highs or swing lows.

ok

then I will buy your premise if you answer me this.


how can you tell between a break out and a fake out?

Redlion. I love that the market is manipulated as it makes it so easy to make money. It makes price non random and action very ordered. Yesterdays trading was SO MUCH BETTER THAN FRIDAY! Woot woot...

Anyway... It doesn't matter if the market is manipulated or just that the pro traders believe it is.

If I am wrong... It merely means that instead of a couple big players hunting stops. 5-10% of the market who are trading is playing by the same rules and understand stop hunting and go along with it.


I personally do not sell anything supporting the manipulators when they are trying to push for stops and toss in a few bids to help them out if anything. Then I analyze the pop for follow-through then go for a fade.

Then everyone knows the next game is to gun for the stops on the other side of the range.


This type of game goes on all the time on US trading floors, so why not Forex?

you still didn't answer my question but here is what I am understanding from you.

the market goes from stop to stop to take out the weak hands correct? then why is it that the foot print of this movement does not infact resemble this?

in fact I believe that orders and liquidity moves the market.....of course limit order clusters CAN work as you say.... depending on size.

But I do not buy the premise that there are select few pros knowing and making money by special knowledge...they get fxcked in the ass too.

you are over simplifying things......

Actually, the direction is known... And it's known by a lot of people. The trend of the market doesn't change suddenly... It's a slow process without a large emotional catalyst most all of the time.

Trend last night was hovering around a downtrend of 10-14 pips per 200 minutes... Quite slow really.

Oh, and as for knowing if a move is going to continue or not... There is a little secret called "inside volatility" which can be used to solve that in the next few 5m candles.

Also, check the news feeds for a potential emotional catalyst trigger.

I am glad you solved the puzzle

when will you be submitting your thesis for the Nobel prize in economics?

I told you in the past that you were wrong and I'm going to tell you again: you're wrong!

I've worked several years on the wholesale departement of ING and know some things of how banks work.

A little question: why would banks move the price if they can't profit from it? As you know banks in the US and some countries in Europe it's forbidden to trade as only goal to make a profit for their own.

I'm going to ask you several questions after your reply to show you that you're wrong but your systems can make a profit.

Sorry swingtraderf. I am right. Just read some books written by ex hedge fund managers and ex traders from trading firms like Salomon.

Pushing the market around for different purposes like stop hunting is common practice.


Heres a little trading tip for you guys tonight. If they manage to take out the underside sell stops on EU open we are going to have a MOTHER of a rally... Price strength is stabilizing across the board just like two days ago.

They could always make a misjudgement about the uptrend strength... Fail to take out the downside stops and all get blown sky high by their own position with core price trend moving upward against them.

LoL...

Daily momentum curves are starting to look good for a solid run now! Woot...

Consolidated under median now and stabilizing... OH YEA GONNA BE TIME TO CRUSH SOME EURO BEARS...

Then after this next rally cycle is completed it's time to DESTROY ALL EURO BULLS! LoL...

Perfect answer, those were common practice in those days, no today anymore. I'm going to leave it here, do what works for you but your arguments are still not true.

You think todays markets are perfectly honest nowadays??? Rotflmao...

Give this guy a hands up! Woop woop!!! He has been bought and paid for.

I think your observations about market PA are ok, but the reason that you attribute to the moves is incorrect. Look at the 1H chart of the E/$. The move up that you show on your chart (I think this is about the same time) is a predictable move to square up the down candle from last night, when most European traders were not at their stations. Once squared, the way was clear for a further move south, and the German announcement at about London open gave that South move a nice shove. PA since the big move South has been a slow sqauring of that early move. Stop hunting by large players is largely a myth to make retail traders feel that they are less responsible for their losses. BTW, large institutional traders do not trade anything less than a 1H chart so anything you see on a 5M chart is just noise to the big players.

Edit: Hi Red, been a long time my friend!

Ill leave you idiots to argue with yourselves. Ill visit again on Saturday... Maybe!

You guys just distracted me and I missed a good trade setup in this uptrend... Grr...

Not the strongest uptrend... But plenty range tradeable...

Those idiots that just sold there thought that volume spike was the top being put in. But, were in a confirmed uptrend now... Unlike yesterday. Just people being blown out of position as the tide moves higher.

Trend is slow enough that the moves can actually still be faded but that's not a good idea as at some point this thing will start a solid run before it cracks.

Yeah long time no talk..... I hope all is good for you and your family making a killing in the markets I see.

When I said "not the strongest uptrend"... I wasn't joking...

2.5 pips per 50 minutes price strength increase rate... 4.2 pips per 100 minutes... Hah!!!

Start a hedge fund and beat the stars out there, I guess you know what the future brings and with a hedge fund you can play your fantasy game fighting the big boys.

Ok, I'm really done now!

Everyone is well and I hope the same is true with you and yours. Trade well!