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Day Trading vs. Swing Trading vs. Position Trading 86 replies

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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #4,181
  • Edited 2:59am Sep 24, 2012 2:05am | Edited 2:59am
Quoting Good Lookin
That hh you speak of looks to be a reaction from a drop base drop and not that horizontal trend line you've drawn. Also if you had stops below the low that circle breaks i'm pretty sure they were hit. Take a look and see if price has done anything special previously at the circle lows. Just something to think about.
Thanks GL.

The blue line was more a reference to the old high, and compared to that the HH was weak.

What comes to the S and D that have turned price in the mentioned HH and LL - I think that I can see them. The thing I was talking about was if I can see which one HH or LL will break first. If I can see it then I would like to hold trades to that direction more than the other direction. But I don't see which one will break.
Also USDX is creating compression. Demand/support is holding for now, but the messy friday is making the direction unclear.

This all is something that is just to complicate trading , its much better to just trade from level to level as Ken emphasises.
  • #4,182
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:52am Sep 24, 2012 7:52am
Hi everyone!

I'm posting a possible opportunity in AUDUSD based off the 4-hour chart.

Long @ 1.0290, Stop @ 1.0270, Target: tbd. (No matter what, risk-reward ratio is clearly beyond 3:1 )

Any comments welcome!

Good day to all.
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  • #4,183
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:58am Sep 24, 2012 7:58am
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/ar...k-xlt-program/



Hi Rufus, could you please have a look at the article and help me to understand why the lowe supply level is not a good level.? many thanks





Quoting Rufus
If I may suggest. Get this nailed down before your first trade on Monday.

Mine has

Mission statement.
Business plan.
Trading plan.
Trading systems
Position Management
Psychological Plan. (What state of mind do I have now...Should I be trading)

Countless other little doodads as well.

Hope this helps some traders out there

Rufus
  • #4,184
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:59am Sep 24, 2012 7:59am
charts
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,185
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:17am Sep 24, 2012 8:17am
Hi kenneth..

Could you please write a few sentences about why lowe supply level in the following article is not quality level. According to Sam Seiden, there are two reasons.

http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/ar...k-xlt-program/

many thanks,





Quoting Kenneth Lee
charts
  • #4,186
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:20am Sep 24, 2012 8:20am
Quoting Trappist
Hi kenneth..

Could you please write a few sentences about why lowe supply level in the following article is not quality level. According to Sam Seiden, there are two reasons.

http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/ar...k-xlt-program/

many thanks,
I will try, no time right now ,,
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,187
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:47am Sep 24, 2012 8:47am
Quoting Trappist
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/ar...k-xlt-program/



Hi Rufus, could you please have a look at the article and help me to understand why the lowe supply level is not a good level.? many thanks
If no one gets to it by the time I get home I will look at it.

At a quick glance. My guess is he was referring to R:R ratio and origin of the strong move. To me the lower level was also to close to the upper supply and all it did was take out the supply up to the swing high.

How is that for quick and dirty?
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #4,188
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:54am Sep 24, 2012 8:54am
EU long closed out for 15 pips. Not watchng this anymore. Headed to other job.
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #4,189
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:56am Sep 24, 2012 8:56am
I refer to Figre 3 in the article. I think Sam is talking about the lower supply level before price had played out a new demand level at Figure 4.

So, I really do not understand how he can evaluate lower supply level as a non quality level only by looking at Figure 3.

Because price moves a way with pretty big red candles and demand level with a huge gap up is far away from this level, which suggests a high R:R.

hope you and Kenneth will enlighten me..thank you again



Quoting Rufus
If no one gets to it by the time I get home I will look at it.

At a quick glance. My guess is he was referring to R:R ratio and origin of the strong move. To me the lower level was also to close to the upper supply and all it did was take out the supply up to the swing high.

How is that for quick and dirty?
  • #4,190
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:25am Sep 24, 2012 9:25am
Quoting Trappist
I refer to Figre 3 in the article. I think Sam is talking about the lower supply level before price had played out a new demand level at Figure 4.

So, I really do not understand how he can evaluate lower supply level as a non quality level only by looking at Figure 3.

Because price moves a way with pretty big red candles and demand level with a huge gap up is far away from this level, which suggests a high R:R.

hope you and Kenneth will enlighten me..thank you again

Maybe this is better. Without a normal chart...tough to layout
Attached Image
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #4,191
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:43am Sep 24, 2012 9:43am
Quoting Trappist
I refer to Figre 3 in the article. I think Sam is talking about the lower supply level before price had played out a new demand level at Figure 4.

So, I really do not understand how he can evaluate lower supply level as a non quality level only by looking at Figure 3.

Because price moves a way with pretty big red candles and demand level with a huge gap up is far away from this level, which suggests a high R:R.

hope you and Kenneth will enlighten me..thank you again
Sam mentioned in various occasions that rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally (not sure if I got the terms right) is merely a revisit of supply or demand, and so it's not an ideal fresh level in itself. Put it simply, I think the gist is that if thee is a drop-base-drop or rally-base-rally just above or below, that level would be far better and is what he calls 'level-above'level' because price would have to first chop through the rally-base-drop to get to this drop-base-drop and so momentum would have been consumed and more likely to reverse. On that chart of figure 3, the lower supply level is a rally-base-drop just below a better drop-base-drop. Just my 2 pip.
  • #4,192
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:55am Sep 24, 2012 9:55am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
charts
Good stuff here KL..

Never really noticed this till you pointed it out.
I know we have all heard about "time of day trading”. Will have to admit, not the biggest fan. As I trade the Asian session, considered by some not to be the best time to trade, I will definitely start looking in this area.

Will definitely make this part of my ongoing ads to my trading log on position I am considering and / or taking.

Thanks as always KL

TSD
  • #4,193
  • Sep 24, 2012 12:16pm Sep 24, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting Trappist
I refer to Figre 3 in the article. I think Sam is talking about the lower supply level before price had played out a new demand level at Figure 4.

So, I really do not understand how he can evaluate lower supply level as a non quality level only by looking at Figure 3.

Because price moves a way with pretty big red candles and demand level with a huge gap up is far away from this level, which suggests a high R:R.

hope you and Kenneth will enlighten me..thank you again
I'll try. Have to say though that I'm not expert in odds enhancer.

1) One might be the R:R relation, like Rufus pointed out.
2) Second might be the exit from the lower Supply.
3) And I would add also the level on levels. So there is actually 2 supply levels so close that the midpoint of those is the safe entry point.

I have used the figure 4, because of better quality of the picture.

Please correct me.
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  • #4,194
  • Sep 24, 2012 12:19pm Sep 24, 2012 12:19pm
is this correct interpratation?


Quoting Rufus
Maybe this is better. Without a normal chart...tough to layout
Attached Image
  • #4,195
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:14pm Sep 24, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting Trappist
is this correct interpratation?
I am disregarding the gap for the first target. As you said there was a huge gap up, buying pressure. A few cent retracement then moving toward the lower supply zone, buying pressure. That few cent retracement is what I would be calling the first target.

I know that are a lot of ways to interpret a chart. Some will take profit quicker then others. Also some traders may combine the two zones and make 1. At times I will take the swing high of the lower zone and call that the lower part of the upper zone. But all these decisions are made in light of risk.

Hopefully this is of some help to some traders. I think that it is very easy to confuse the issue and make things more complicated then they are. You will also notice that when price left the upper zone it was like someone yanked the floor out from underneath it. Where as the lower zone price just meandered around in it chewing up supply then finally left. If we were able to see a smaller time frame chart I would bet there was a supply level/swap right to the left of that lower supply.
Attached Images
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #4,196
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:04am Sep 25, 2012 2:04am
The few cent retracement,you mentioned...if the price action had not played out that few cent retracement , would you choose the reward you marked or I marked ?


Quoting Rufus
I am disregarding the gap for the first target. As you said there was a huge gap up, buying pressure. A few cent retracement then moving toward the lower supply zone, buying pressure. That few cent retracement is what I would be calling the first target.

I know that are a lot of ways to interpret a chart. Some will take profit quicker then others. Also some traders may combine the two zones and make 1. At times I will take the swing high of the lower zone and call that the lower part of the upper zone. But all these decisions are made in light...
  • #4,197
  • Sep 25, 2012 6:26am Sep 25, 2012 6:26am
With the information we have at this chart, can we conclude that the area I draw in the rectangle is not a good demand level ?

How woudl you analyse it ?

thaks again


Quoting Rufus
I am disregarding the gap for the first target. As you said there was a huge gap up, buying pressure. A few cent retracement then moving toward the lower supply zone, buying pressure. That few cent retracement is what I would be calling the first target.

I know that are a lot of ways to interpret a chart. Some will take profit quicker then others. Also some traders may combine the two zones and make 1. At times I will take the swing high of the lower zone and call that the lower part of the upper zone. But all these decisions are made in light...
Attached Image
  • #4,198
  • Sep 25, 2012 7:25am Sep 25, 2012 7:25am
Quoting Trappist
With the information we have at this chart, can we conclude that the area I draw in the rectangle is not a good demand level ?

How woudl you analyse it ?

thaks again
I would rather see what is further left in the chart. I like to see some thing clean and tidy to trade it
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #4,199
  • Sep 25, 2012 7:56am Sep 25, 2012 7:56am
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/ar...-the-breakout/

I had excluded the big red candle at point C, just to learn how we would asses the rectangled area in my previous question..


Quoting Rufus
I would rather see what is further left in the chart. I like to see some thing clean and tidy to trade it
  • #4,200
  • Sep 25, 2012 8:21am Sep 25, 2012 8:21am
Quoting Trappist
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/ar...-the-breakout/

I had excluded the big red candle at point C, just to learn how we would asses the rectangled area in my previous question..

The way I like to look at positions is who is trading against or with me. I wold rather not be slugging it out with a bunch of retail traders. When big money, institutional traders get involved the zone will be come clean and the exit decisive..

Right now Draghi is speaking. As tempting as it was to short the EU right now from the supply laid out. I stayed out. Not in MY trading plan. Other plans that people may have great. As for me though, guys like Draghi or Bernanke can be a loose cannon for the Forex market. So close monitoring may be the ticket to trade it. I don't always have that luxury.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
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