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  • #521
  • May 22, 2006 1:03pm May 22, 2006 1:03pm
Quoting BeachBum
Last week was the second loosing week in a row for the "set & forget" system I have been using. This means three loosing weeks out of fifteen, but the fact that I had two in a row does concern me. The demo account I use for the full 24 hour system is up just over 1800 pips for this fifteen week period, so if someone were trading this system with real money, they would be showing a modest profit.

However, this fact deserves attention; if I had used Genesis data last week, my loss would have been significantly smaller. I am beginning to believe that Genesis data more accurately mirrors my broker's data and therefore VP performs better and is more accurate. I will continue to look at this for the remainder of my free Genesis trial period.
BB - if you need data that is closest to your broker just input your broker's data into the .mdb files. That would solve your problem and you won't even need to use a separate data feed.
  • #522
  • May 22, 2006 4:27pm May 22, 2006 4:27pm
Quoting zarni
BB - if you need data that is closest to your broker just input your broker's data into the .mdb files. That would solve your problem and you won't even need to use a separate data feed.
zarni...............thanks for the suggestion, but I must be missing something here. If all someone needs to do is: "just input your broker's data into the .mdb files.", then why would anyone subscribe to a data provider? EOD info from the broker would be sufficient. Please explain this for me.

Thanks!
  • #523
  • May 22, 2006 4:31pm May 22, 2006 4:31pm
Quoting zarni
The parameters are exactly as defined in the manual.
I buy at predicted low when I have neural index 1 and tune for pts/ptm for each pair (positive values).
I sell at predicted high when I have neural index 0 and tune for pts/ptm for each pair (negative values).
It's as simple as that.

I've also tested swing trading using predicted 10-day vs actual 10-day MA. That system seems to work even better. I get about 270k for 412 trades over 7 years using 1 forex contract on EURJPY pair. Trading activity for that is 21% with success rate 63% and per trade average profit $739.

I have already posted the spreadsheet once on this board but if you didn't catch it I'll do it again.
Hi Zarni

Thanks for reply , not too sure what you mean by "tune for pts/ptm"?

Could you please explain?

Thanks

Andrew C
  • #524
  • May 22, 2006 4:34pm May 22, 2006 4:34pm
Quoting BeachBum
then why would anyone subscribe to a data provider? EOD info from the broker would be sufficient. Please explain this for me.

Thanks!
And the numbers generated by VP would be specific to your brokers feed!

I sincerely hope we are on to something here.
  • #525
  • Edited 6:52pm May 22, 2006 4:44pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting BeachBum
zarni...............thanks for the suggestion, but I must be missing something here. If all someone needs to do is: "just input your broker's data into the .mdb files.", then why would anyone subscribe to a data provider? EOD info from the broker would be sufficient. Please explain this for me.

Thanks!
]

THERE IS NO REASON!!!
Except maybe it does save you some time inputting the data.
BTW it would probably be easier to change your broker than do the inputting every day...
  • #526
  • May 22, 2006 4:48pm May 22, 2006 4:48pm
Quoting zarni
]

THERE IS NO REASON!!!
How do we do this, putting our brokers data into .mdb files? This could be interesting - intraday VP readings...

hmmm - I wonder if that would be useful?
  • #527
  • May 22, 2006 4:54pm May 22, 2006 4:54pm
Quoting lonespruce
And the numbers generated by VP would be specific to your brokers feed!

I sincerely hope we are on to something here.
Well I am no statisctician but just because your broker had a deviation one day that doesn't make it significant long-term. I tend to think that it is probably better to have a broader data feed but that is just a supposition. There is a possibility that there are certain big players utilizing certain brokers/banks that behave in a certain way so it may be beneficial to have a specific rather than broad data feed. I don't know which is better either way...
  • #528
  • May 23, 2006 4:53am May 23, 2006 4:53am
Quoting BeachBum
zarni...............thanks for the suggestion, but I must be missing something here. If all someone needs to do is: "just input your broker's data into the .mdb files.", then why would anyone subscribe to a data provider? EOD info from the broker would be sufficient. Please explain this for me.

Thanks!
Hi BB,

I actually just contacted CSI a few days ago to see if I could input my brokers open, high, low and close to make VP configure to my broker however I still await a reply, I will try again today. To answer your other question, I think VP also needs volume, opening interest and a few other factors that we couldn't input from our brokers but would be universal to the pair, I think...

I think this would work though and may solve the data provider problem.

Happy Trading

FoggyTrader
  • #529
  • May 23, 2006 8:08am May 23, 2006 8:08am
Quoting foggyTrader
Hi BB,

I actually just contacted CSI a few days ago to see if I could input my brokers open, high, low and close to make VP configure to my broker however I still await a reply, I will try again today. To answer your other question, I think VP also needs volume, opening interest and a few other factors that we couldn't input from our brokers but would be universal to the pair, I think...

I think this would work though and may solve the data provider problem.

Happy Trading

FoggyTrader
OK foggy..............keep us informed. Thanks!
  • #530
  • May 23, 2006 8:55am May 23, 2006 8:55am
Quoting lonespruce
How do we do this, putting our brokers data into .mdb files? This could be interesting - intraday VP readings...

hmmm - I wonder if that would be useful?
I am not sure intraday would work with VP. The neural network and all the algorithms would assume 24 hours and thus the calculations may be off.
However it may be viable to do a specific point in a day when you do the data upload - as in rather than 6pmEST something like 12 noon each day.
  • #531
  • Edited 9:40am May 23, 2006 8:58am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting foggyTrader
Hi BB,

I actually just contacted CSI a few days ago to see if I could input my brokers open, high, low and close to make VP configure to my broker however I still await a reply, I will try again today. To answer your other question, I think VP also needs volume, opening interest and a few other factors that we couldn't input from our brokers but would be universal to the pair, I think...

I think this would work though and may solve the data provider problem.

Happy Trading

FoggyTrader
That is not true for CASH only for futures. Just open any of the MDB files and see. Volume does not appear in the CASH forex data.
This is an actual MDB file for EURUSD. And it seems VP does not need data on futures to create predictions for CASH pairs.

And I would suggest you contact VP *not* CSI. Csi wouldn't know or care. Except they'd prefer to keep your business so they'd probably say no.

<table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="1" cellspacing="0"><caption>Actual Data</caption> <thead> <tr> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">ID</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Date (Hex)</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Date (Decimal)</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Day of Week</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Open</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">High</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Low</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Close</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Total Volume</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Total Open Interest</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Contract Volume</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Contract Open Interest</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">250</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">130875930</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">19970226</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">3</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1.1702</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1.1727</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1.1545</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1.1569</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">0</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">0</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">0</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">0</td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot></tfoot> </table>
  • #532
  • May 23, 2006 9:44am May 23, 2006 9:44am
Quoting timaru69
Hi Zarni

Thanks for reply , not too sure what you mean by "tune for pts/ptm"?

Could you please explain?

Thanks

Andrew C

I mean lets say you say for this pair the optimal is to look for ptm>.0150 and pts>.05. I've found that different pairs show different optimal settings.
  • #533
  • May 23, 2006 9:50am May 23, 2006 9:50am
Quoting zarni
That is not true for CASH only for futures. Just open any of the MDB files and see. Volume does not appear in the CASH forex data.
This is an actual MDB file for EURUSD. And it seems VP does not need data on futures to create predictions for CASH pairs.

And I would suggest you contact VP *not* CSI. Csi wouldn't know or care. Except they'd prefer to keep your business so they'd probably say no.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 bgColor=#ffffff border=1><CAPTION>Actual Data</CAPTION><THEAD><TR><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>ID</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Date (Hex)</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Date (Decimal)</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Day of Week</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Open</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>High</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Low</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Close</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Total Volume</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Total Open Interest</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Contract Volume</TH><TH borderColor=#000000 bgColor=#c0c0c0>Contract Open Interest</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>250</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>130875930</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>19970226</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>3</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>1.1702</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>1.1727</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>1.1545</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>1.1569</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>0</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>0</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>0</TD><TD borderColor=#c0c0c0 align=right>0</TD></TR></TBODY><TFOOT></TFOOT></TABLE>
Interesting,

How do you actually get access to this MBD file? Also, VP does take 9 other markets into consideration before predictions are made, that is the basis of the intermarket analysis, so how would you suggest we can enter all the data for every related market?

Sorry, I don't have my VP book to hand but I am sure VP considers volume and open interest along with 9 other markets to determine the predictions. I am not trying to argue against the idea of inputing your brokers close, high, low and open, I just think it maybe more complicated than that. Just my opinion...

Happy Trading

FoggyTrader
  • #534
  • May 23, 2006 4:26pm May 23, 2006 4:26pm
Quoting foggyTrader
Interesting,

How do you actually get access to this MBD file? Also, VP does take 9 other markets into consideration before predictions are made, that is the basis of the intermarket analysis, so how would you suggest we can enter all the data for every related market?

Sorry, I don't have my VP book to hand but I am sure VP considers volume and open interest along with 9 other markets to determine the predictions. I am not trying to argue against the idea of inputing your brokers close, high, low and open, I just think it maybe more complicated than that. Just my opinion...

Happy Trading

FoggyTrader

Well it seems like it doesn't for forex cash as there *is no volume data*.
If you are talking futures yes...

Just open the mdbs and look for yourself.
Also the forex cash is the first to update through CSIdata and forecasts are available without info from any other markets. Futures become available later...
  • #535
  • May 23, 2006 7:08pm May 23, 2006 7:08pm
We need somebody with a tradestation forex account to do some intraday backtesting on our system.
This will conclusively proove whether the system is viable or not as it will eliminate intraday ambiguity of hi lo prices.
Pease PM me if you have a tradestation account.
TIA!
  • #536
  • May 24, 2006 4:33am May 24, 2006 4:33am
Quoting zarni
We need somebody with a tradestation forex account to do some intraday backtesting on our system.
This will conclusively proove whether the system is viable or not as it will eliminate intraday ambiguity of hi lo prices.
Pease PM me if you have a tradestation account.
TIA!
I do agree this may help, but there is a further complication:
The OCHL data we're getting is for New York 8.00 am - 5.00 pm, and yet a lot of us are trading out of these hours for which there is no data. So our hi lo's could be anywhere. It makes backtesting very unreilable.

I'd be interested to hear any ideas on the out of hours / data problem.
  • #537
  • May 24, 2006 7:12am May 24, 2006 7:12am
Quoting rodant
I do agree this may help, but there is a further complication:
The OCHL data we're getting is for New York 8.00 am - 5.00 pm, and yet a lot of us are trading out of these hours for which there is no data. So our hi lo's could be anywhere. It makes backtesting very unreilable.

I'd be interested to hear any ideas on the out of hours / data problem.
Which provider are you using? I am pretty sure CSIDATA is 24 hour data on forex cash pairs
  • #538
  • May 24, 2006 8:45am May 24, 2006 8:45am
Quoting zarni
Which provider are you using? I am pretty sure CSIDATA is 24 hour data on forex cash pairs
I'm using CRB. I'll give then a call to clarify.
  • #539
  • May 24, 2006 8:54am May 24, 2006 8:54am
I only have 3 markets at present and confirm that there are only 3 up to date .mdb files in the VP database folder. So I asked emailed Market tech and asked them to explain how the Intermarket analysis works. He told me the the .mdb files contain the OCHL etc. data but the Intermarket data is taken directly from the provider folder. (In my case its \CRB 63). I checked there and found the full set of data.
Makes me feel a little more trusting.
  • #540
  • Edited May 28, 2006 7:05am May 27, 2006 6:56pm | Edited May 28, 2006 7:05am
Quote
{Edited out heresay and other false information} Edited by FT: I've been clear about the rules regarding discussion about whether VP is viable or not.
I've come to the conclusion that you should use it initially as a swing tool and manage trade accordingly. I am experimenting with paper trading 2 contracts and selling half to lock on a profit e.g $500 and lifting stop on other half to breakeven. This way if a trend does develop you are still in the trade and if not the worse that happens is that you realise a risk free profit (assuming mkt doesn't gap through stop and goes lock limit against you)

Results so far a 13 trades over 14 days , 9 wins , 4 losses Risk Reward currently 2.1 :1

$100K account, $5,750 profit of which half realised and other half still open. Risk max 2% per trade.

Average trade length 4.6 days

Plan to forward test for 6 months

Recent trades

Long OJ
Long Cotton
Short Coccoa

Their are others but in some cases I didn't use VP to confirm a trade entry rather used other low risk strats.

Good Luck

Andrew C
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