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The Illusion of Motion

  • #21
  • Sep 23, 2012 4:07am Sep 23, 2012 4:07am
im no expert on this,

but if you watch the more detailed experiment its mind blowing,they can determine the end result of location by reducing the possible oucomes to 1
  • #22
  • Sep 23, 2012 4:20am Sep 23, 2012 4:20am
I take Issue with Dr Quantum's explanations of the brain not being aware of painful stimuli and still responding by instinct. He makes this twilight zone paradox of being aware of the future while not being aware.... In Video titled" The real self behind the ego"

the Nervous system doesn't work that way...he basically says some woo there.

he tries to play a dualism where there is none.

I can go deep into this but I do not think this is the debate we are having, so his credibility at least to me is not that great...implying some woo forces, at least in his way of explaining things...which are right but with language that can be a little misleading.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #23
  • Sep 23, 2012 4:29am Sep 23, 2012 4:29am
However here is where this relates to trading...as primates we have pattern seeking behavior...... with our need to explain and find order, purpose and design in things...hence the invention of Gods.

we have a real problem with Brownian motion, Chaos theory, and Spandrels, as well as fractals.......perhaps our patterns in the market have nothing to do with future price valuations, or information discount in the markets.

perhaps the market is a very weak Random walk, with tendencies to overshoot its equilibrium as we interpret and move the market in different directions through our valuation of the asset in question.... and if it is the case that our system especially in Technical Analysis is creating random results or random distributions.. then

it is very relevant to me to use σ= (p(1-p)p/n)^1/2 and build at least our money management models as if the market was random where E_r>E_l as to have positive expectation in returns taking into account the Summation of all probability ranges + current ATR to set targets.

but anyway this is a tangent again. Just as in the real world...objectivity is better than subjectivity and predictive models are better than non predictive models of reality.... as well as being careful about our assumptions because our models are ONLY as good as our assumptions.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24
  • Sep 23, 2012 4:37am Sep 23, 2012 4:37am
If you want to get all technical, there's a thesis, if you call it that, on how there's a ring around bodies, usually like planets and stars, of anti-matter. It also suggests that the interaction between anti-matter and matter is what creates time and space. So, really, time and space are tangible, while not.

There's four known forces of the universe. The strong, weak, electromagnetic, and something else. Yet, there's someone who has drawn out some interaction between the basic structures of an atom that forms six main points. He suggests there is actually six known forces of the universe, not four.

If you look at the sun, you aren't seen the sun in this very moment, but a couple minutes before this moment. So, taking this, if I am seeing you just across the room, even though you are a few milliseconds behind me, and I you, if I walk towards you, am I traveling through a different time speed in relation to you?

What the fuck does this have to do with trading? Well, if we colonize Mars, how will the time difference between planets be included into price? On average, there is a twelve minute distance between the two... Though, it's not always twelve minutes. There's also other things that come into play.

The future is scary...
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #25
  • Sep 23, 2012 5:51am Sep 23, 2012 5:51am
Zeno was part of the Sophist movement and their motto was "man is the measure of all things". As such, they don't abide by fixed norms and any truth (even mathematical facts) can be disproven when tweaked with a change in the perception a human being can put into it. If Zeno was here today, he would say that prices don't move if you consider a 1/100000th second TF graph. This is true, but only for the sake of a conversation between philosopers that are trying to make a point, and completely useless for traders.

Quid erat demonstrandum

Quoting newyear498
It's become evident that most of you off the bat can't comprehend such a truthful observation

I'll present another idea that will get you going even more


Solid Structures are an illusion

show me something solid and I will stand by my reasoning that it is an illusion.. why.. because its simple... ITS NOT SOLID

everything is made of millions of atoms.. whats in between... space

solid objects are an illusion



In the end we have senses.. 5 known senses.. and I am sad so few can comprehend...
  • #26
  • Sep 23, 2012 6:18am Sep 23, 2012 6:18am
well there is one truth.

price moves up and down .not sideways,just like a barometer up and down
  • #27
  • Sep 23, 2012 6:19am Sep 23, 2012 6:19am
Quoting newyear498
It's become evident that most of you off the bat can't comprehend such a truthful observation

I'll present another idea that will get you going even more


Solid Structures are an illusion

show me something solid and I will stand by my reasoning that it is an illusion.. why.. because its simple... ITS NOT SOLID

everything is made of millions of atoms.. whats in between... space

solid objects are an illusion



In the end we have senses.. 5 known senses.. and I am sad so few can comprehend the facts;...
then please jump off a building and tell me if you hit a solid ground and broke all your bones or fell through it due to all the space between the atoms.
  • #28
  • Sep 23, 2012 6:24am Sep 23, 2012 6:24am
Quoting Custos
then please jump off a building and tell me if you hit a solid ground and broke all your bones or fell through it due to all the space between the atoms.
we are in fact not solid Custos, as stated before the space between the nucleus and the electron is huge.... the space between the quarks in the protons and neutrons is also huge.

the mass of the matter in an atom is very very very small compared to its "size" in fact breaking your bones..... or touching a breast is another issue, it is not solid matter against solid matter. (it is an entirely different issue)
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #29
  • Sep 23, 2012 6:27am Sep 23, 2012 6:27am
Quoting GnarlyPips

What the fuck does this have to do with trading? Well, if we colonize Mars, how will the time difference between planets be included into price? On average, there is a twelve minute distance between the two... Though, it's not always twelve minutes. There's also other things that come into play.

The future is scary...
Quantum entanglement is the solution. It's already getting researched.
  • #30
  • Sep 23, 2012 6:29am Sep 23, 2012 6:29am
Quoting the redlion
we are in fact not solid Custos, as stated before the space between the nucleus and the electron is huge.... the space between the quarks in the protons and neutrons is also huge.

the mass of the matter in an atom is very very very small compared to its "size" in fact breaking your bones..... or touching a breast is another issue, it is not solid matter against solid matter. (it is an entirely different issue)
yes, I understand all this. But you must understand, I am more a practical guy. If I hit my fist against a wall and break my bones, then I hit something solid no matter how it looks like on a molecular level. If I hit a microwave beam and my bones don't break, then I didn't hit something solid.

not sure how breaking bones or touching breast should be a completely different issue. It is exactly the issue we talk about. The solid state is not an illusion, it can be touched everywhere. From what I understand the atoms are fixed in location when in a solid state, that's why it is solid. Not an illusion at all.
  • #31
  • Sep 23, 2012 6:40am Sep 23, 2012 6:40am
Quoting Custos
yes, I understand all this. But you must understand, I am more a practical guy. If I hit my fist against a wall and break my bones, then I hit something solid no matter how it looks like on a molecular level. If I hit a microwave beam and my bones don't break, then I didn't hit something solid.

not sure how breaking bones or touching breast should be a completely different issue. It is exactly the issue we talk about. The solid state is not an illusion, it can be touched everywhere. From what I understand the atoms are fixed in location when...
the illusion comes in play because we happen to be this size therefore our view of the world is such...

were we the size of a nutrino then the world would be a lot different,

were we the size of a planet then the world would be different


by world i mean our perception not planet earth per se
therefore the world as we experience it in the current size we posses is an illusion as changing the scale would change the outlook
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #32
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:04am Sep 23, 2012 7:04am
Quoting the redlion
the illusion comes in play because we happen to be this size therefore our view of the world is such...

were we the size of a nutrino then the world would be a lot different,

were we the size of a planet then the world would be different


by world i mean our perception not planet earth per se
therefore the world as we experience it in the current size we posses is an illusion as changing the scale would change the outlook
I am still not totally convinced. Even if we would shrink to see the atomic structure, solid states always have locked in place atoms, while in for example a liquid state the atomic structure is floating. And radiation or other forms of energy only have electrons (and maybe other things, but no atoms). So it still is not an illusion, it is based on the structure how the atoms are aligned. Sorry, maybe I am too dumb for this.
  • #33
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:06am Sep 23, 2012 7:06am
Quoting Custos
I am still not totally convinced. Even if we would shrink to see the atomic structure, solid states always have locked in place atoms, while in for example a liquid state the atomic structure is floating. So it still is not an illusion, it is based on the structure how the atoms are aligned. Sorry, maybe I am too dumb for this.
I might just be doing a crappy job at explaining this...I am not a particle physicist
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #34
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:09am Sep 23, 2012 7:09am
Inserted Video
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  • #35
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:10am Sep 23, 2012 7:10am
Inserted Video
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  • #36
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:11am Sep 23, 2012 7:11am
Quoting the redlion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kypne21A0R4
thanks for the video. That makes sense now with the electric fields.
  • #37
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:16am Sep 23, 2012 7:16am
Hi,

I think that this subject may need to be simplified. First, a trader may want to explore the variables offered by the market. For example, in stock you get the following information from the exchanges: 1. the open 2. the close 3. the high 4. the low. The trader also obtains total traded shares per day. In futures we get price, volume, and open interest. In short, it is beneficial to put all the pieces the exchanges/market provide us on the table.

In currencies we get just price, and that is it - With only that information, O/C/H/L we have made thousands of indicators. Some trying to measure exhaustion points, others attempting to measure trend, momentum, etc. Sometime I sit back and I feel trading is like a 4 variable piece puzzle, and I'm trying to remember all this high school math to make sense of it.

Anyhow, with those 4 pieces of information we begin our quest to measure. Measure what? and this is where we get really confused. First we start with the most common talked about, and easily accessable - the price graph, on an x/y plane. There we see value being ploted. We see charts like point and figure, or line charts/bar charts/candlestick, etc. And that is all there is to it.

If you want to use astro, or old logic from the Greeks, it doesn't matter. At the end, those 4 variables are the only sure thing, and how you line them up, is the difference between profit and loss.
  • #38
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:22am Sep 23, 2012 7:22am
Quoting Dick Clark
Hi,

I think that this subject may need to be simplified. First, a trader may want to explore the variables offered by the market. For example, in stock you get the following information from the exchanges: 1. the open 2. the close 3. the high 4. the low. The trader also obtains total traded shares per day. In futures we get price, volume, and open interest. In short, it is beneficial to put all the pieces the exchanges/market provide us on the table.

In currencies we get just price, and that is it - With only that information, O/C/H/L...
I claim that is not so...I tend to agree with Prophesor Shiller from Yale university and the current model of understanding of the market.

That is that the equilibrium is found between buyers and sellers, and all participants of the market bring the best available information to price in the VALUE of the security.

the price chart is a visual representation of past transactions while we are attempting to profit from the inefficiency in the current market value or attempt to forecast future valuation.

mostly the market is moved by information....that being the case past information by definition cannot be predictive of future information....that is where the brownian motion comes into play.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #39
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:29am Sep 23, 2012 7:29am
Let me just add however

that statistically the daily returns for the Euro is not a normal bell shape curve distribution...there are some heavy tails, and skewness, the mean of the returns are not = 0

statistically from returns, ranges, and standard deviations we can get a measure for the expected volatility of the currency.

with a chart we do get a read for the significant levels where there is less liquidity.

Fundamental analysis can give us a picture of the overall economic conditions or environment.......but ultimately the puzzle is that it is chaos second by second as the combination of participants price in the currencies.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #40
  • Sep 23, 2012 8:00am Sep 23, 2012 8:00am
Quoting PipMeUp

You need the distance not the move covering the distance.
Unfortunately you do need to predict the motion, otherwise stoploss then it goes where you wanted :/


Quoting the redlion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQP4UJhNn0I
that was awesome!
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