Australian Bear Raid

Do you know what the uncertain part we all face now?
Who is left to prop everything up with anticipation (hopium) of QE3.QE8, LTRO,TARP, LARP, ect ect.. All the major CB's are in now its a waiting game to see if the trickling of funds gets 80% of the World out of Contraction.

Now finally that everyone is in the game and there are no real surprises coming down the pipeline like a new central bank coming in with stimulus, or a surprise speech from the many finance ministers we can get back to the hard numbers..And they are not pretty..

technical give confirmation too...


yes October...would be nice..patience is a virtue , waiting is just our part




a bit correction on the number.. Steven
49 - 47 .. contraction lower 50%
Okay?

Michelle,

i always love seeing your charts. You are one on the best EW chartists i have come across for sure

Updated PnL. I don't know what to expect from London but if the last couple days are any indication I will be watch NY for sure as they have been the 'proppers' this week on holding the rate stable.

London = Consolidate Flat

NY = Trending could be...

be ready..

Thanks Steven

For AUD bulls this was a piece that was forwarded to me.

http://www.afr.com/p/blogs/christoph...SoIf3dbsOkaU4M

i'm learning...thanks jp

Great!

Additional sell stop sitting at 1.358 500,000 spot for German numbers and NY down day and holding off on AU futures as I already have a nice short in place so far.

Updated PnL

giving up 1.2485, dont like it. chinse down at couple of years low.

this Thursday/Friday could be shaping up for a nice sell off in Equities and risk in general...China is the backbone and the fact remains now we have to wait several weeks before we see any improvement from the new stimulus from the CB;s
China, BOJ, FED, UK, ECB.

For now the market has filled QE3 announcement and maybe for a brief few days we the drug addicts of Hopium on stimulus are coming down off the high?

Question I still pose is what's really left to take us higher? all the CB;s are in and Draghi talk is no longer effective..This is what I love to see were coming back to what the market should be loooking at hard numbers and not relying on a central banker or minister or stimulus to drive our markets high.


on top of the Sell stop Spot position waiting I have added a sell stop on futures of -10more contracts sitting at 1.0285


The only thing stopping the market for NY today from falling 150+ down on Dow and 20+ on S&p is unemployment much better than expected and dollar gets hammered back to channel levels, S&P COMES out and talks about downgrade, Or some Fin Minister comes out with new stuff we have not heard yet...

here is what I am seeing for FUTURES if we break lower the next support over the day or two is 1.0245 (chart posted in AUD/USD thread)

cancelled the sell stops as they were not triggered NY open..I am looking for the NY close on ES and Dollar to decide whether its prudent to short for Asia. This move is not over not by a long shot still below key resistance areas

Sold another -5c at 1.0351 hitting the big resistance FADEEEE NEW YORK..

Updated PnL Holding of on adding on spot waiting for a better technical setup.

This is a real cute attempt for AAPL/ES on trying to stage a breakout again repeat with me Fade NY close for overnight continuation.


Sold on spot a bit more

Check out some fascinating reads from research that just came out from

McKinsey&Company

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi...ity_imperative

And I was looking through old speeches of the past and this one I re read today is a beautiful pictorial of a Boom Bust cycle when terms of trade starts to decline. From the AU treasury

http://www.treasury.gov.au/Publicati...uctural-Change

Full report (56+pages) M&C

.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in July. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are share prices, money supply*, gross operating surplus*, and the sales to inventories ratio*. Rural goods exports, the yield spread, and building approvals declined in July.

Looking at the last 4 daily candles... by the way what I am about to mention isn't a candle pattern..

As I was reviewing my note book I found this interesting...

The broadening Formation.
This pattern is an unusuual variation of the triangle and is relatively rare. It is actually an inverted triangle or a triangle turned backwards. It is also called a megaphone top. This pattern represents an unusaul amount of public participation, it most often occurs at major market tops.

And what would you know... we are at a major market top.

If anyone sees the same thing.. I would be curious to know.

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/r...1kYUKA.twitter


Bill Evans of Westpac is talking October cut

VERY INTERESTING!!