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Higher low, lower high system

  • #5,621
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:48am Sep 14, 2012 6:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post6012101 and
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post6012148

I got a message from someone it seems about to bust a gut they are so unhappy with their earlier sell and trading in general, asking why I didn't think it was a sell etc etc.

OK first of all I had no clue it wasn't going to go down further, it was an engulfing close from a key SR level. That seems like a decent set up. I didn't know what the market would do I only knew what I would do in reaction to that engulfing close. First of all I wasn't a seller because I knew I wasn't prepared to risk money on 1 candle on 1 TF.

Engulfing close candle - if that was a candle in trend yes absolutely brilliant set up, but it wasn't.
Key SR level - pa was weak on the move down as mentioned well over an hour to move 25 pips was unconvincing.
No 4hr or 1hr divergence.
No 4hr set up candle.
No 1hr LH LL flow to at least give better chance of success. 1hr HH HL flow clearly in tact.

Bottom line we are in a major uptrend from 1.20ish to above 1.30. Thats a lot of up move to take a sell based on 1 candle.

I got the distinct impression the person thought every tdi crossing is a trade. It isn't. The what IF it went down and I missed out idea.

The only thing I can think to say is get a trading plan for trend and CT. The rules are up to you. Could be trading on 1 side of ma only, follow D or 4hr tdi/rsi cosses, trade direction above below tdi/rsi 50 level only. Trade 1hr HH HL or LH LL flow only. Once you have your rules test them out, stick to them, change them only if you see something better (and tested the changes).

That'll give you a fighting chance, trading every tdi crossing won't.
  • #5,622
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:47am Sep 17, 2012 4:47am
on h1 fibo 23
on m5 setup
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  • #5,623
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:19am Sep 17, 2012 9:19am
Quoting walkman
on h1 fibo 23
on m5 setup
Very nice trade.

Mrs V got this sell after 2 x upper wicks and an engulfing close on 1hr. Exit after D pivot held for an almost 15/85 trade.
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  • #5,624
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:30pm Sep 17, 2012 4:30pm
Hi! I like your system, it seems well founded and logic, a question, where and when do you take profit? xcuse me for asking, I admit I haven't read through the whole thread as I probably should but I don't have much free time. Cheers
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #5,625
  • Sep 17, 2012 11:44pm Sep 17, 2012 11:44pm
Quoting roughtrader
Hi! I like your system, it seems well founded and logic, a question, where and when do you take profit? xcuse me for asking, I admit I haven't read through the whole thread as I probably should but I don't have much free time. Cheers
Hi over the years we have become pretty much outright scalpers and 20-30 pips we are happy.

Biggest decision is first to realise if you trend or counter trend. If CT then you should not be expecting more than 20-30 pips in any event.

If trend then where in trend? If you have caught the first HL/LH on D chart then you can either take some profits early and let balance run or use the (1hr/5 min entry) set up to get entries for swing trades.

Anyway we target SR levels, pivots, RN's, 15/85 areas.
  • #5,626
  • Sep 18, 2012 12:26am Sep 18, 2012 12:26am
I did post this elsewhere but think its important in trend CT/1hr flow debate.

A distinct double top on 4hr, divergences showing, 1hr HH HL flow a bit of a struggle. 3080 still a problem with decent move from there yesterday but at least now theres more than 1 candle 1 TF to go CT.

Its still CT though and for now no reason to believe this is anything but a pause in move up.

COT reports showing big boys selling their EUR shorts in an orderly fashion. I suppose they'd love to move price lower to get out at a better level.

Anyway for us sells still CT until D proves otherwise.
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  • #5,627
  • Sep 18, 2012 5:29am Sep 18, 2012 5:29am
Hi Vantage

Just wanted to say thanks for your continued effort on this thread and your blog, they have been a great help to me. I have been lurking here for some time. I think the penny is starting to drop for me.
  • #5,628
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:24am Sep 19, 2012 4:24am
Quoting scurvy dog
Hi Vantage

Just wanted to say thanks for your continued effort on this thread and your blog, they have been a great help to me. I have been lurking here for some time. I think the penny is starting to drop for me.
Welcome and good luck with your journey.

I find myself being in the unusual position of being up to date at work whilst we wait for confirmation of next contracts.

Just spoke to Mrs V she has just exited 2 trades and is now done for the day.

GU sell at extreme, reasons (despite the up bias I had for the day) proven resistance level around 6270 region (highs of bodies back to Apr '12), D doji, R1, Y's high and numerous failed attempts to go higher this morning. Proven support resistance and prices reaction to it is one of the keys to trading.

EUR sell 3062 ish, reason the D evening star pattern, 1hr engulfing close, sold the close of 1hr and not 5 min lh that followed.

Her neck is giving a few problems of late. It seems that chart time going forward may be limited. We are having a serious think about system change that her health issues (and chart time) dictate.

At this stage it appears we will focus on D + 1hr with a big focus on 1hr flows (you may have noticed a certain obsession with that of late and now you know why).

I hope she has saved some charts and will post later if she has.
  • #5,629
  • Edited 4:50am Sep 19, 2012 4:42am | Edited 4:50am
Quoting Vantage
At this stage it appears we will focus on D + 1hr with a big focus on 1hr flows (you may have noticed a certain obsession with that of late and now you know why).
These are my EUR D and 1hr charts.

I don't know as yet if its going to be a new thread or just a change of first page. We'll see.

Basically system D engulfing close, 1hr LH LL, 1hr engulfing close LH following D. The red arrows down means the previous candle gave signal, purely price action based, there are NO indi's that cause signal.
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  • #5,630
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:52am Sep 19, 2012 9:52am
These are the pics Mrs V took for the 2 trades. 1hr EUR and 5 min GU.
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  • #5,631
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:03am Sep 20, 2012 6:03am
I didn't take this as market had already fell 100+ pips and posted a doji on the 1H .Also with the time of day i suspected a bigger bounce was not out of the question. looking back maby it was goer what with 3 attempts at the 75 level.
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  • #5,632
  • Sep 20, 2012 8:52am Sep 20, 2012 8:52am
Quoting scurvy dog
I didn't take this as market had already fell 100+ pips and posted a doji on the 1H .Also with the time of day i suspected a bigger bounce was not out of the question. looking back maby it was goer what with 3 attempts at the 75 level.
...
5 min TF S+R trading using 2b's and 1 2 3's, nice thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=323134 worth a look.
  • #5,633
  • Sep 20, 2012 8:55am Sep 20, 2012 8:55am
Quoting scurvy dog
I didn't take this as market had already fell 100+ pips and posted a doji on the 1H .Also with the time of day i suspected a bigger bounce was not out of the question. looking back maby it was goer what with 3 attempts at the 75 level.
...
Mrs V did take it entry at 1.2968 exiting 1.2946 when the move through low failed to follow through. I think she said she thought the move up was just a pre-news retrace and happy to enter back into trend.

She seems to have missed taking a pic, sorry.
  • #5,634
  • Sep 20, 2012 8:57am Sep 20, 2012 8:57am
Quoting scurvy dog
I didn't take this as market had already fell 100+ pips and posted a doji on the 1H .Also with the time of day i suspected a bigger bounce was not out of the question. looking back maby it was goer what with 3 attempts at the 75 level.
...
Amazing how price hit the WM2 pivot 'to the pip' and bounced.
  • #5,635
  • Sep 20, 2012 9:41am Sep 20, 2012 9:41am
Thanks for the tip, Mr V (ref our old friend & his 123s).
  • #5,636
  • Sep 20, 2012 9:42am Sep 20, 2012 9:42am
Quoting Vantage
5 min TF S+R trading using 2b's and 1 2 3's, nice thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=323134 worth a look.
Thanks for the link I will have a good look through it.
I am aiming to up the quality of the trades that i am taking and having to up my patience level in order to do this. Its a fine line. no trades for me today
  • #5,637
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:45pm Sep 20, 2012 11:45pm
Quoting scurvy dog
Thanks for the link I will have a good look through it.
I am aiming to up the quality of the trades that i am taking and having to up my patience level in order to do this. Its a fine line. no trades for me today
Yes, whilst its one of those things that I've never really focused on when such a big move happens during Asian session its a pain.
  • #5,638
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:47am Sep 21, 2012 12:47am
Nice pa summary here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post6030328, of course when he talks of trendline break and pullback to test he is of course talking about higher lows/lower highs.
  • #5,639
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:49am Sep 21, 2012 12:49am
Waiting to see the reaction to the highs but looking at last few days compared to Apr certainly looks like more upside possible.
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  • #5,640
  • Sep 21, 2012 9:35am Sep 21, 2012 9:35am
1hr pos close, shooting star, neg close at the proven SR level forming an evening star variation. Mrs V doesn't know an evening star from a hole in the head but she does know my fixation with engulfing closes as a set up. 5 min lh little no lower wick. Exit when the intra day SR held at the W pivot and news was coming.

Mrs V didn't stay in front of computer for other potential trades.
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