Starting with $50

Here's the 1 hour chart I used for just the horizontal trendlines. BTW, the colors of the lines mean nothing. They were just so I could recognize another line.

Hey Soros,

What pairs do you watch? The reason I ask is because I would like to incorporate other pairs in this thread, just analyzing them for entry/exit points for fun. I won't trade them on this demo account though so it doesn't skew the returns of the EURUSD account.

Thanks

USD/CAD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/CHF and GBP/USD

USDCAD


This one is very obvious to me. Go to the 4 hour chart and you will see it is ready to tank based on both Stochastics.


Short

Entry = .97406...Exit = .97093

Don't take this as gospel or as a recommendation...just my thoughts tonight.

Compare with your thoughts and go by what you know because some of these seem kind of high.



USDCAD...gonna tank..covered it already


USDJPY...gonna tank...Entry = 78.529...Exit = 78.286


AUDUSD...gonna fly...Entry = 1.04823...Exit = 1.05353


USDCHF...yuck - avoid


GBPUSD...pullback - gotta think too hard for that one.

good calls, AUD/USD is at a minor pull back so im just watching it for now and getting ready for my next entry

Wrong on every single one

Now to figure out why there was no movement

Result? Canx trade

Well, anyway you put it, I was wrong about all of my calls last night, including the EURUSD pair. So what went wrong?

Nothing major from a fundamental point of view. This is pure technical.

Let's just look at the EURUSD for now...looking at the 4 hour chart below you will notice that it is now touching a yellow line, that's the 60 SMA. Pretty good when it comes to giving you the current trend and real good when it comes to telling you about pullbacks in current trends.

This is doing just that. Also goes for the AUDUSD and USDCAD

i just took a buy on aud/usd!!!!!!!!

Well, at this point you are either:

1. out of the position

2. freaking out

3. determined to "sit tight" because you have looked at the 4 hour chart. Right now the 1 hour chart shows it's gonna decline for a bit before reversing.


If you're still in the position, what's your exit point?

at this moment im very calm, not even worried because i look at higher TF

Well, I've come crawling back with pride and ego purged from my system. Last night I was full of confidence, skip optimism, I KNEW what I was talking about.

Whatever.

Tonight's trade could easily go either way. I've decided to go bearish. My logic is telling me to be bullish...I've already had an order in to go bullish (entry @ 1.30825 and exit @ 1.31134) but I kept asking myself "isn't this a pullback on a pullback?"

Pending Sell Stop

Entry = 1.30625...Exit = 1.30350...Lot size = .02

Regardless of how this plays out I need to study this chart tomorrow because the Stochastics have stumped me pretty good...I'm still thinking this goes bullish as I type.

Here's the charts:

Well, it seems my trade turned out good but I had no idea that it would tank so much.

Time to study what happened...4 hour and 1 hour charts...dotted vertical line is where I put pending order in. Next post will have my worksheet chart with all of the past Support and Resistance lines (and if they relate to either the FiboPiv and/or the Fibonacci retracements):

And here's the worksheet on 1 hour

So, I had to figure something out before I went crazy.

Cranked the music up, opened 3 different EURUSD charts, got pen/paper out, set the charts up with 3 different criteria based on 4 hour and 1 hour charts.

4 hour chart gives the direction, 1 hour chart gives the timing but both must agree.

Test 1: 4 hr chart had 21,5,5 Stochastics...1 hr chart had 5,3,3 Stochastics

Test 2: 4 hr chart had 5,3,3 Stochastics...1 hr chart had 21,5,5 Stochastics

Test 3: 4 hr chart had 5,3,3 Stochastics...1 hr chart had 5,3,3 Stochastics


What I was looking for was Stochastics agreement (clear and correct direction), disagreement (going in opposite directions), and head scratching (sitting there for 2 hours looking at the monitor trying to figure out what the heck it's telling me to do). Obviously, I want to make trading as easy as possible so direction is crucial before Fibonacci's and Support/Resistance lines can be used.

I looked at every trading day from last night thru Aug 31...a total of 14 trading days. I could've looked at more days but the numbers were good enough to make a decision.

Test 1

Clear direction: 5

Opposite direction: 4

Scratch your head for 2 hours: 5


Test 2

Clear direction: 8

Opposite direction: 2

Scratch your head for 2 hours: 4


Test 3

Clear direction: 6

Opposite direction: 4

Scratch your head for 2 hours: 4


I want to limit the amount of time I sit at the computer and stare at the lines. I had a feeling that the dominant Stochastics periods I have been looking at were the ones that came out as dominant...not perfect but pretty dang good.

So the winner is Test 2...


What this means is that I can now look quickly at those two charts with those specific Stochastics settings and determine the nights direction and whether I want to go thru all that pain and anguish of trying to figure it out...meaning? This sure helps to minimize the second guessing of a trade.

It could be just one of those nights that it's better to stay out of the market or I could do a little work/study and interpret the data...but at least I know what I'm dealing with and that's pretty important.

Hello to anyone reading this.

Right now there's a nice battle between the bears and the bulls going on. A reversal of the current bearish move is in order and should happen soon.

So tonight I am bullish!

Pending Buy Stop

Entry = 1.30035...Exit = 1.30389...Lot size = .02

On the 4 hr chart I concentrated on the 5,3,3 Stochastics and on the 1 hr I focused on the 21,5,5 Stochastics. It's gonna be a little while but should happen in a couple of hours.

Okay, I just checked my trade before I went to bed and it looks like the price is attempting to hit the 38.2% line...which will intercept the 60 sma on the 4 hr chart and that should be where the bounce occurs.

Edit: looks like the market didn't like the French numbers. Wonder if the German will be any better?

BTW, moved my entry to 1.29610 and exit to 1.30150

Well, I just woke up to realize one of the 3 trading facts know universally. I'm either right, wrong or partially right.

Looks like my trade was triggered after I went to bed and is now in a trading range that the funksters of Wall Street would be proud of so they can shake my money loose from my account...NEVER again!

Let's look at the 3 points above and respond to them:

1. on the 4 hour chart the price did go down tot he 38.2% line, intersecting with the 60 sma...now it will either bounce off or go under it but since the trend is very bullish, it should bounce.

2. the German news was pretty good and the US was bad so it should've gone up so the bulls are allowing a retrace

3. I changed my Exit from 1.30150 to 1.29757. Much lower exit but if my little trade didn't work it's time to exit at the best possible exit and move on to tonight's trade. 610 is the next resistance it will hit and then after that is the 757.

My new exit could take all day so set it and forget it. Here's the chart with Support and Resistance lines...my worksheet...dark blue lines are past support/resistance lines, then there's the FiboPiv and lastly, Fibonacci's from the high of this week and low from yesterday.

Portfolio is looking healthy, keep it up!!!!!