vsa with Malcolm

Thank you Hidden Gap! Thank you BeLikeWater! Thank you everybody who is trying to keep this thread alive. I am all ears.

Looks like distribution been going on and just seen a Potential Buying Climax. Looking for a No Demand Bar to short soon ...

Great posts guys, all though I don't post much I do read these posts and I'm sure many others do the same...

50 pips in the bag ... slow going but it's moving :-)

Good job. Cha-Ching. WTG!

Good Leader Contribution

PA (Price Action) + Volume + Market Profile = It's GREAT Combination for Trade



By the Way... Where is malcolmb14 Now ???

"Come to the edge of the cliff," he said.
"We're afraid," they said.
"Come to the edge of the cliff,"he said.
"We're afraid," they said.
"Come to the edge of the cliff," he said.
They came.
He pushed.
They flew.

Guilluame Appolinaire

Post charts with questions, thoughts and observations. Let's all fly together..

HG tkx for resurrecting this thread.

What do you see in this chart? Is this classic pushing up through supply with absorption volume?

I can see some similarities with the breakout and bull move wich eventually led to the 1987 event.

Thank you for the post.

There is a lot going on here. Let's take a closer look and see if we can figure out what is going on.

Before we do that, I want to say this. Please do not take my word as gospel. If you have a different opinion, feel free to express it. We can all become better thru a free exchange of ideas.

Now on to the chart.

A. This is an Effort to Rise interval that is pushing thru supply. Note the reaction high (old top) to the left. Whilst the volume is ultra high, the close is on the top of the range. We can see that the increase in volume shows not only a desire to push prices higher (effort to rise) but also a willingness to absorb any supply in this area.

We see that two intervals later, there is a down close on volume that is less than the previous two intervals. This is No Supply. The key here is that the No Supply is back into the range of the Pushing thru Supply interval. Therefore, where we once saw high volume on an up interval, we are now seeing low volume on a down bar. This is bullish. If there was a lot of sellers on the high volume bar, there are clearly a lot less on the low volume bar.

B. A wide range up bar on ultra high volume closing slightly off its high. First note that there is no top to the left that can be seen. If there is an old top to the left, it is further back. This only means that if this was pushing thru supply, the supply level (old top/reaction high) cannot be seen.

There are other reasons to not view this interval as pushing thru supply. First, take a look at the range. Compare the range to the range of interval A. The range is smaller or the same at best. Yet the volume is greater. This is a churn bar (see next post). Suffice to say, increased activity (volume) is not producing increased range. Effort vs. Result.

C. Narrow range up bar that closes well off its high on ultra high volume. This bar is a Squat. In fact, in VSA terms, it looks like an End of a Rising Market. The volume appears to be the highest volume on the chart, but the range is very narrow. Something is compressing the range: supply.

This is a very weak bar.

The next two intervals are narrow range down bars on volume less than the previous two. They are NS bars. The picture is starting to get muddied.

D. After a narrow range up bar that closes near its low on increasing volume we get this interval. This interval is marked down, making a lower low than the previous interval, and then closes near its high on decreasing volume. This is a Test.

The Last interval is interesting. It has increasing volume and a decreasing range. Making it a squat. It closes well off its highs and slightly lower than the test interval. Because it is closing lower, than the test, this means the test has failed (although some will give a test two intervals to close up).

I think the market is weak. I would expect prices to fall. If price enters the Supply/Demand Zone and strength appears, that would be a good place to get long.

/agree

Especially bar C on this chart, The volume sticks way out.

What used to trip me up was the test, test we know are usually a sign of strength so if I would see a test and say "oh its strong!" and place a buy order. But as HG was detailed out we see that supply has come into the market, so this test for now should not indicate strength.

HiddenGap,

thanks for trying to bring back the thread...great thread...your analysis sways to a weak market but as you said things are muddied...do you ever give yourself percentages of what way a market will move...in this case what is the percentage that this market will fall vs rising higher...is it 50/50...60/40...is there a slight edge one way or the other based on the analysis...

So HG,

I we see upthrusts/no demand bars come along they would confirm weakness and then look for a short entry ?

QE3 announced on 13th Sept in a bid to aid the US markets.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...recovery.html#

Is this a typical example of 'good news' being utilized by the Smart Money to start taking up short positions (Distribution), while 'The Herd' want to go long ?

Thought I'd take a look at the S&P 500 weekly...

Easy AU setup.

In Asia we see a buying climax of sorts then as prices rolls over in London a high volume up thrust appears.

Just a chart dump.

The priests and the friars behold me in dread
because I still love you
my love
and you're dead..

That is a little dark HG.. DCD is a trippy!

Not too bad of a day.

Previous US session we see that EU got hit with supply, so when Asia rolls around, time to look for sells.

In Asia we have a two UTs, before the second UT we had a couple of SO bars. Notice the second SO had higher volume, the result of these SOs? and LV UT.

Thank you for the chart. Please keep 'em coming.