The elements of Trend and some Rules

First trade of the night... Just doing some warmups before EU session... Need to get some coffee before the real games begin!!!

Two pullback cycles while positive momentum stayed high and deceleration of trend wasn't significant!

Bought in on the 3rd count down of the second sequence(A bit early) and trade held for a count of three reversal candles.

I dont understand what is the relationship between velocity + acceleration with range? Because you substract them 300-100. What is the unit of velocity and acceleration ? Unit is in pips?

If something is trending sideways with no momentum with a range of 200 pips odds are high that price will move from the outside of that range back toward the middle.

As trend speed starts to increase the instrument generally has a larger 10 bar range. It just happens that the trend speed suppresses the dips in that range over the timeframe in question.

Lets look over the EUR/USD recently... Trend + and acceleration readings are currently at 200 pips per 10 days. Subtract it from the range at any time during the last ten days and it tells you the biggest dip you should expect is around 100 pips. Rough estimate but it's been pretty much correct.

Kind of an abstract concept... But it works for me!

Another thing my bottom indicator says right now is that the trend speed/price strength reading on my bottom indicator will be 200 pips per 10 days, ten days from now.


Looking back over my past data for the EUR/USD tells me that this will end in a parabolic blow-off as short term momentum has far exceeded longer term sustainable trend speeds.

I don't know exactly where the move is going to correct... Here... 1.33, 1.35... But, what I can tell you for sure is that this will end in a parabolic blowoff.


DO NOT BUY A DIP for multiple days of pullback at this point... When this trend loses steam it's going to end badly. However, we are going to have plenty of price strength left to mount a higher rally after the corrective move.

It's important to recognize the different between "runs" and "trends"... A run doesn't have retracements when overbought or oversold... Runs are more likely to occur off of long term lows or highs as a large long term build up in positive/negative sentiment has occurred... Lot of fuel!

Looking over past data for the EUR/USD I estimate this run to lose momentum around the end of next week or so. There is a potential for a pretty decent blowoff retracement next month before we head higher.