VantagePoint discussion thread

Quoting Dave1

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Hi guys,

Appologies for my lack of knowlege but I am almost totally lost with all this backtesting talk and analysing MA's etc. Zarnie, what exactly do you mean when you say the returns are good when using only the NI (1) for trading. For example, I presume you wait for the NI to give a 1 signal then you would buy when price reached the P/L but when would you close the trade, 12 or 24 hours, or would you have to monitor the trade throughout the day as a day trade. Again I do appologise for my nievaty.

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Quoting BeachBum

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zarni.................18 May was the only day I have seen different NI indicators because of different data providers. Genesis was 0 for gbp/usd, CSI was 1. Rather unusual situation I believe.

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Quoting timaru69

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Hi all , I have VP and have also struggled to come to grips on how to trade it. I still can't help thinking that I have bought a very expensive trading tool and I am still trying to see where the value added is. I have not committed any real money on trading VP signals until I have a consistent paper traded P&L.

As such, have been reading everybody's posts with some interest. One question I have and that you may need to consider is what happens to the VP data after the neural netwrks have been retrained? Doesn't this change the historical data? Therefore you are always backfitting VP to the actual results, therefore any test results are skewed.

I think that previous comments re VP as a trading tool are valid and I am currently forward testing EOD VP signals using PTS cross with divergence of PTM diff and PTS diff lines to confirm chart paterns/candlestick setups e.g ABCD's (drop step drops) shooting stars and hammers. My first test showed an annual return of approx 22% with drawdown of around 15%

I think that the way that Market Technologies sell VP is quite frankly atrocious and many people are drawn in by the hard sell tractics. I was speaking to a chap in the States who blew half of his account trading the PTM cross signals, his broker quite happily did this for him. The key element that Market Technolgies always understate is the trade mangement skill required to keep losses small and winners consistent, for every example chart that they show a big profit for I could show a dozen others that didn't work or wouldn't have got you into a trending market.

Anyway will bash on, look forward to reading more posts.

Regards

Andrew C

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Quoting zarni

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Hey Andrew,
Actually if you have the fortitude I think VP works best with swing trading. You have to be able to stick with the program though. I have tested and it seems swing trading offers the best return out of any of the other options. I showed one example of more than 700% for 10 month period.

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Quoting timaru69

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Hi Zarni

Thanks for the reply

What parameters/conditions did you use when you tested over 10 months? Forward or backward testing? I would be interested in seeing the results?

Thanks

Andrew C

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Quoting zarni

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'

Backtesting. And it is as simple as watching for the swing. i.e. MVA cross. Exactly how VP propose. Now it is questionable whether the predicted MVA is of any use considering the samples I've analyzed show pretty much same success using close price line crossing actual 10-day MVA.

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Quoting timaru69

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Hi Zarni

Sorry still confused

Do you mean a projected 4 day MA cross over a 10 day Simple MA or price cross through (above/below) 10 day simple MA?

>> price cross over 10 day MA. The problem with swing trading is it needs strong trends. If you have a lot of seasawing it turns into a loss making strategy.

Where would you place your stops? i.e what factors would decide your risk level?

>>i haven't really traded that way but just backtested based on close/open price

I guess you are saying that the projected MA offers no value over the 10 day simple MA if you use price cross as a trade decision?

>>it seems not to

Therefore if this is the case then where is the value of VP?

>>not sure

VP told me to go long if

PTS (projected 5 day MA 2 days ) crosses over 5 day simple MA

and

Index is 1

and

PTM diff and PTS Diff are both rising sharply from the bottom quartile to the 0 line.

>>correct that is what they say

Opposite for Short Trades, no advice was given as to where stops should be placed.

>>right. they don't go into very much detail at all.

If you are a conservative trader use PTM (10 day MA project 4 days forward) crossing the 10 day simple MA and other conditions.

What did the VP people tell you to do?

>>I don't really listen to them. The times I've spoken to anybody there even to me they've sounded slightly clueless and I am no veteran trader.

Anybody else told the same thing or something different?

And what impact would the retraining of the neural networks have on your results, I don't think that this can be quantified and as such will distort your results to make them look better than what really happened in real life. i.e give better entry signals on historical charts after networks retrained.

>>I don't think the neural networks are retrained dynamically. This is a software package and the .exe file does not get rewritten (that is it is static). Hence the neural network is static. The neural network gets retrained between different versions of VP.




Cheers

Andrew C

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Quoting dsarnat

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I realize all don't want reality thus this post will be deleted before it reaches all eyes. So I will hope it doesn't and just talk about my findings on the product and maybe you can help me see the errors of my ways.

I did buy the product. I did study it day and night on every forex currency they offer...for every day that was in their historical data. I did study everything they told me too ... and everything the suggested webinars said to...and everything I could combine from candlesticks to western trading signals...stoch..MACD...you name it. I also tried what VP said to do...You say if has been profitable for you? Back test it. Is it still? ... cover up the graphs day by day and make your decision on your method for years past...in all currencies...do you still get a profit? (to answer that question you need about 3 months...I did) If so how much and what did you do? Seriously...WHAT DID YOU DO? I couldn't find it.

I am not slamming a product because I don't like it. I am slamming a product because I have tried it to no end...and no profit. paper or real. In a previous post I wrote that I would buy the product again if someone could show me how to get anywhere close to the 80% trade record with back testing. Let me rephrase that...if they advertise 80% accuracy...or even in the 70% range for some currencies...don't you believe they should be able to show you how to achieve it...instead of making you figure it out....if it is even possible with their product.

I do elliot wave and have been successful on it...I believe it the best. Now there are MANY other systems to make money on...not just elliotwave....VP just isn't one. If it is then why hasn't ANYONE been able to figure out how to make it work? ... not luck on a trade or 2...backtested with the data over years. I would take a kid with a ruler...there is a system that I won't slam...because it actually works...if VP works then share how. I see people on this forum trying to make it work since 2004!!! ... and still trying to make it work...maybe it just...well .. doesn't.

Money where the mouth is..OK....current price 1.2406

A word from Elliot Wave type analysis and you decide. What does Vantage tell you right now? I say in the EUR/USD we are thrusting up in a 5th wave of a diagonal triangle pattern...topping at 1.2450 - 1.2476....then a selling of the EUR/USD like you have not seen in a very long time...fast and furious....with very distant targets...perhaps in the 1.08-1.10 range at least 1.16 range... targets depend on how it plays out in the down thrust. Worst case I am off by a minor degree and it will choppily climb for another 2 days before the sell off....hmmm any VP predictions? I could be putting my foot in my mouth...but I am confident enough in my system to predict that...why? Because it is USUALLY correct. How much confidence do you have in your product?...enough to change the way you try to use it year after year because it keeps not working.

Not to be so rude but I am not exactly slamming a product I haven't tried and no one on the post slapped up a way to make money off of VP...I was trying to save you the grief I went through for 3 months. They refunded my money without me asking...I only showed them all my spread sheets and asked "can you show me what I am doing wrong?" ... Doesn't that say something to you? I'm very sorry you bought the product but please don't lead others down this path UNTIL you know how to make money on it...which will not happen.

Sorry If I have offended,

D Sarnat

PS: and I am up 500% on the year with my system..including FXCM King of the Mini and trader of the month in January...anyone using VP near that? ... cut your losses and switch to any other system...it doesn't have to be elliot but I would suggest it. I WAS in your place once. I did make the same mistake buying it...but I did switch when I saw it was worthless...since 2004 is a long time to be asking yourself the question "how can I make VP work?" ... please cut your losses...it is such a waste. (however I will say Genesis server was very cool) Any comments?

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Quoting zarni

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I do have proof that vantagepoint does work based on backtesting.
However, it is not 80% successful. I get it to about 60-70% which is pretty darn good.
If you are interested i can provide you with the backtesting results.
Now I do have a question for you. How exactly do you use Elliot wave analysis for your decisions?

thanks

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Quoting zarni

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I do have proof that vantagepoint does work based on backtesting.
However, it is not 80% successful. I get it to about 60-70% which is pretty darn good.
If you are interested i can provide you with the backtesting results.
Now I do have a question for you. How exactly do you use Elliot wave analysis for your decisions?

thanks

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Quoting zarni

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I do have proof that vantagepoint does work based on backtesting.
However, it is not 80% successful. I get it to about 60-70% which is pretty darn good.
If you are interested i can provide you with the backtesting results.
Now I do have a question for you. How exactly do you use Elliot wave analysis for your decisions?

thanks

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Quoting timaru69

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Hi Zarni

I would be interested in the results and the rules/parameters you used to test

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Quoting rex

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Hi, FoggyTrader
the result for this "SET & FORGET" are pretty good but not that higher than the CP_Trader's version, Since July, 2003 to Apirl, 2006, it only generate 6000 pips( only initial trade, no stop&reversal trade, bcz lack of programming knowlege on excel I can not backtest stop reversal trade). I am so confidence if we add the stop reversal trade, the result will be much higher than 6000 pips.
For input the data, first of all , you need export VP data into *.hst file, make sure you choose RawASCII and Points Ticks options when you save the .hst file. Then you need excel to open the *.hst file, the following work will be easy.
Trade recommendation part, I took from chapter 5 from VP booklet, just make it easy to read. the stop&reversal trade is myself add to it. Because from the stastic data from 3 years VP data, I found out that if price beyond PHIGH or PLOW 11 pips, then there was 88% price will continue into 23 pips, 64% price will into 45 pips area. That is why I set the stop reversal trade.

enjoy pips!

Rex.

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Quoting Dream Dog

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Hey BB,

Do you have any stats. on how VP does on Sundays?

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Quoting zarni

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What I show is trading EURJPY 1 contract from 1/5/99 to 5/12/06 which is approx 7.5 years yields 33745 pips. Or about 4500 pip per year. USDCHF shows 39816 pips for same period. I don't see much sense to trade every day when I can trade about 15-20% of the time (most probably make more pips) when there is just a swing and incur less spread costs.

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Quoting rex

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Different peoples have different trading style , like stoploss setting, profit taken, lot size ....etc. People perfer day trading will enjoy the lower stoploss setting . But swing trading for forex market will involve higher stoploss , for example, GBPUSD, you might be looking for 300 pips day range , like in past 5 weeks.... So this will all depends on personal trading style, nothing about system.

just my 2 cents

enjoy pips
Rex.

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