Ultimate BULL market dead ahead | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Ultimate Successful Trading Technique 118 replies

Fundamentals - The Ultimate Lagging Indicator 21 replies

The Ultimate Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) Thread 73 replies

Ultimate BULL market dead ahead

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 30, 2012 8:51am Jul 30, 2012 8:51am
we are about to fly!...
the market is showing us the Planet Parade (it is when the planets of the solar system form a perfect line from the 1st planet to the last).
and so do the world's monetary institutions. think about it...

this is what i think is going to happen (ideally!):
step1 - 3 regions eased their policies - China and Australia lowered interest rates (ir) and GB started a QE program (lets call it QEE (E for England))
step2 - ECB lowered ir and now is about to start a QE (which we'll call QE-EU (for European Union)). I expect QEEU to be announced this week.
step3 - QE3 from the FED in mid September. forget about this weeks FOMC - it might give a hint at best, but nothing more.
step4 - the 4th quarters are traditionally very bullish. so earnings and overall economic health will probably demonstrate a very healthy state.

that lets me to conclude an amazingly straight line of monetary events - the Parade...
the start point is this week. right now we see the markets pull back a little - but it's a good sign. it is what usually happens before important meetings such as what we are to have this week (and i'm talking about the ECB - forget the FOMC, it's not relevant right now). as soon as Draghi announces the QEEU the markets will skyrocket (unless we see a disappointing volume of money allocated for bond purchases. which i think is not likely in this extreme situation).

we can already see the Spanish bonds ir down from 7,6% to 6,6%! - a very bullish sign. if and when ECB announces the bond-buying program (and it is precisely the Spanish bonds they'll be targeting) the ir will drop to 5,5% or maybe even lower.

so, fasten your seatbelts - this piece of junk called the economy is about to lift off and skyrocket. BUT keep in mind that the market drew a similar parabola in 2008 and when the market exhausted we had a colossal drop. it is going to be similar (but much worse). i'll write about the crisis later - right now we are facing what i call - an ultimate bull market.
  • #2
  • Jul 31, 2012 10:49am Jul 31, 2012 10:49am
Quoting DonCutlass
we are about to fly!...
the market is showing us the Planet Parade (it is when the planets of the solar system form a perfect line from the 1st planet to the last).
and so do the world's monetary institutions. think about it...

this is what i think is going to happen (ideally!):
step1 - 3 regions eased their policies - China and Australia lowered interest rates (ir) and GB started a QE program (lets call it QEE (E for England))
step2 - ECB lowered ir and now is about to start a QE (which we'll call QE-EU (for European Union)). [u]I...
you are missing major parts in your analysis. Some states in america are essentially bankrupt, greece is almost bankrupt, spain needs help, italy is at the brink of needing help. The bullmarket can only begin once these problems are solved. Without the demand in europe, the world economy won't start taking off. And since half of europe is almost bankrupt, don't expect demand to rise any time soon. In fact the IMF or I think the worldbank said that a global recession will be in place very soon.
Don't know how out of that situation a bull market could rise.

But I am gonna remind you of this thread once the eur/usd is reaching 1.1 and then please explain to me what went wrong
  • #3
  • Edited 3:45pm Jul 31, 2012 3:32pm | Edited 3:45pm
My personal opinion is that the world economy is not going to recover in another 5 years time (until 2017)... Unless there are some serious new monetary policies to solve the current "let's borrow, have plenty of debt and don't produce any product but move non-existing money out of thin air" problem. Even then the future looks very dim without any serious change in policies (IMO).

If we do get a bull market soon, IMO it won't last long (3-4 years max). Then another serious dive down. I wouldn't call it a bull, I'll call it the sucker punch move.

I don't try to predict future outcomes. Any black swan can occur in the next years that can be a game changer, but I'm not betting on one. I'll simply react to what is happening. If a black swan comes along and change the world for good, then let's celebrate. If not, you better have some serious back up plans.

But weighing DonCutlass' points versus the current situation. I'm not swayed to a bull run. Of course, if there is one, I'd be running with the bulls

Also note, you can get all the fundamentals lined up but no-one is buying. Example; Lowering interest rate to encourage buying doesn't solve the problem that people don't have jobs and have nothing to spend.
  • #4
  • Jul 31, 2012 3:42pm Jul 31, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting DonCutlass
we are about to fly!...
Is that bath salt you're smoking?

Quoting DonCutlass
we can already see the Spanish bonds ir down from 7,6% to 6,6%! - a very bullish sign.
Is that so? We also see 25 % unemployed in Spain, active middle aged people need financial help from their OAP parents, etc etc. I think you are overestimating the importance of such a small change, it could be just summer volatility, a percent change means nothing really.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #5
  • Jul 31, 2012 4:29pm Jul 31, 2012 4:29pm
Don is talking about a short-lived bull market with a big crisis later on.

I do think that once the EC appears to have a handle on the situation and paper over the cracks, the market will fly.
How long that will last is anybody`s guess.

I will have a buy stop on G/J this week for a long-term position in case the ECB comes out with a spectacular "solution" to the problem.
  • #6
  • Jul 31, 2012 5:41pm Jul 31, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting Custos
you are missing major parts in your analysis. Some states in america are essentially bankrupt, greece is almost bankrupt, spain needs help, italy is at the brink of needing help. The bullmarket can only begin once these problems are solved. Without the demand in europe, the world economy won't start taking off. And since half of europe is almost bankrupt, don't expect demand to rise any time soon. In fact the IMF or I think the worldbank said that a global recession will be in place very soon.
Don't know how out of that situation a bull market could...
I think you guys are both on the same page, perhaps different time horizons.

Quoting CrucialPoint
If we do get a bull market soon, IMO it won't last long (3-4 years max). Then another serious dive down. I wouldn't call it a bull, I'll call it the sucker punch move.

I don't try to predict future outcomes. Any black swan can occur in the next years that can be a game changer, but I'm not betting on one. I'll simply react to what is happening.
This
  • #7
  • Jul 31, 2012 6:01pm Jul 31, 2012 6:01pm
Bull market on the A/U maybe for awhile but not for long
  • #8
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:31pm Aug 1, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting Custos
But I am gonna remind you of this thread once the eur/usd is reaching 1.1 and then please explain to me what went wrong
>well 1.1 is very easy to explain. the ECB will bring the value of the euro down through cutting rates (which it should cut down to 0,25% and cut fast) and through bond purchases (printing money). however, a cheaper euro does not mean lower assets - just the opposite. the only part of the equation that is questionable is the usd. it should also drop, and when it does the euro should rise. this is the only trick that there is. so what? don't trade eur/usd - just short the usd index...

@If we do get a bull market soon, IMO it won't last long (3-4 years max)@
>3-4 years?! i'd say about half a year at best (with any kind of stimulus)...

@We also see 25 % unemployed in Spain@
>it's not relevant to the market-makers. what's important is the fact that ECB is being pushed towards becoming more fed-like... if unemployment actually ment something - we would already be in a depression.

@Don is talking about a short-lived bull market with a big crisis later on.@
>exactly. it's a 4th Q forecast. we may crash as early as october-november. we may crash as soon as Obama looses elections (which i think he will)... this bull run is what i call "the last euphoria". though i am hoping it'll last into the 1st Q of 2013.

this only thing that i don't like right now is the Bundesbank... but i don't think it'll stop ECB from buying Spanish and Italian bonds tomorrow.
the other thing i actually like - is the fact that FOMC downgraded US economic outlook. i'd say it's a pretty clear sign for further easing.

what i see the Senate don't understand is the fact that the fed cannot solve all the problems with the use of monetary policies alone! Obama failed to realise that as well and that's why i'm hoping he'll loose the next elections...

@My personal opinion is that the world economy is not going to recover in another 5 years time (until 2017)@
>the sad truth is that the world will never recover in the current system. it's like a time bomb. unless the FED is destroyed and money making returned to government prerogative - the system will destroy itself and half of world's population along with it... total misery, total hunger, total demise... how?think about it - money=debt. there is more debt due to interest than there is money. it's an impossible situation. the more debt there is the more severe the deflation will be. people say there is too many dollars in the system - they are wrong. the supply is always less than the debt. printing more money is simply assuring more demand for it in the longer run... and it'll never end.
  • #9
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:37pm Aug 1, 2012 11:37pm
Quoting DonCutlass
printing more money is simply assuring more demand for it in the longer run... and it'll never end.
this statement is simply not accurate

you should listen to this excerpt from Ludwig Von Mises, it will help you understand much better http://mises.org/media/4127/Demand-f...upply-of-Money
  • #10
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:03am Aug 2, 2012 12:03am
Quoting DonCutlass
we are about to fly!...
the market is showing us the Planet Parade (it is when the planets of the solar system form a perfect line from the 1st planet to the last).
and so do the world's monetary institutions. think about it...

this is what i think is going to happen (ideally!):
step1 - 3 regions eased their policies - China and Australia lowered interest rates (ir) and GB started a QE program (lets call it QEE (E for England))
step2 - ECB lowered ir and now is about to start a QE (which we'll call QE-EU (for European Union))....
I read the title and I thought someone was making a joke...I was wrong lol. You do understand that you cannot print money to get out of debt right? This is why people are flocking to metals, guns, and store-able food I think the link below might be a good place to start....also check out zerohedge.com they drop some knowledge I think you would find useful.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=f_7ryaJbwMg

http://www.zerohedge.com
  • #11
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:38am Sep 6, 2012 4:38am
whether it's a joke or not will be seen very shortly...
but i insist we're in an ultimate bull market and depending on ECB today and the FED next week we'll be able to see just how long can the rally last for...

i am somewhat skeptical about Draghi today because he might point the finger into ESM and Germany. But i am fairly certain he will drop the interest rates. and that is not exactly a bullish thing for the euro. but is it does drop a little, it won't stay down too long. because the ESM is inevitable, and some sort of action will be presented toady. on top of that the sterilized euro is a bullish sign. so, we are likely to see a mix and a seesaw... unless of course Draghi delivers something really extraordinary.

but what could it be if Italy nor Spain extended their hands to the ECB? not much i'm afraid... so really, i'm seeing a little bit of a correction. the market grew on anticipation of the actions without knowing what actions will take place. now they will know and i'm afraid they wont particularly like it. i'm not seeing anything from this press conference other than what we saw during the last one - promises, promises... so really, what we need is Italy and Spain stepping forward with extended hands...

i'm probably going to short the euro. but on a small amount. i closed a long pos. in usd index because i didn't like the moves it's been making. i think usd is down on markets waiting for Ben.

so, anyhow. we need to live through till the 13th Sept... and we need to look close at the unemployment rate because even though it has nothing to do with QEs it will be used as an excuse for the 3d round by the politics... otherwise i see absolutely no reason to implement it. it's a purely political move... but it won't hurt))
  • #12
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:18am Sep 6, 2012 11:18am
ECB left the IR unchanged at 0,75% thus removing the only obstacle for the rally (which we are now witnessing).

the problem to this rally is in the FED now - the unemployment data gives less reason for Ben to QE on top of the fact that we don't really need him to QE (it's a new verb btw). so the next week will be all about politics and all about Ben...

I think Ben will deliver the QE3 purely for political reasons.
-----------------

and just look at the bond rates for Spain! down to 6% (just 0,5% shorter of my prediction - but it'll get there).
extremely bullish market with low volumes and just few hours from some major news. if Ben delivers - we'll see volumes grow and markets skyrocket. i am suggesting staying in the US and going for RF markets (RF stands for Russian Federation). rising oil prices and undervalued MICEX is an amassingly good opportunity during these bad times.

but i'm amazed with Draghi once again for not lowering the interest rates... i was really looking for it. it didn't happen and it pretty much removed the only reason for a short-lived downturn... well, makes things easier, that's all)
  • #13
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:13pm Sep 6, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting DonCutlass
ECB left the IR unchanged at 0,75% thus removing the only obstacle for the rally (which we are now witnessing).

the problem to this rally is in the FED now - the unemployment data gives less reason for Ben to QE on top of the fact that we don't really need him to QE (it's a new verb btw). so the next week will be all about politics and all about Ben...

I think Ben will deliver the QE3 purely for political reasons.
-----------------

and just look at the bond rates for Spain! down to 6% (just 0,5% shorter of my prediction - but it'll get there)....
ur dead on... S&P is going x squared! watch the next few months
  • #14
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:38pm Sep 6, 2012 2:38pm
Cool, a nice consistent trend that lasts long is what I want!
  • #15
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:52pm Sep 6, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting DonCutlass
- right now we are facing what i call - an ultimate bull market.
This could come true. But then any other scenarios are possible, too.

If I were a mid/long term trader, I would not take any position until the US election ends in Nov.

Otherwise, I just follow the charts for intraday trading....
  • #16
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:22pm Sep 6, 2012 4:22pm
i would also agree on a short term bull market,i follow ftse100,i cant see it going above 5950 area,which is a couple of hundred pips away,regardless of what comes out of europe,you cant polish a turd !

from that level i personaly wouldnt be surprised to see a fall of 600 ,700 points very quickly.it wont come from the spooks theres two many,but when the ghost gets seen by all a sell panic acros the board.
  • #17
  • Sep 6, 2012 5:07pm Sep 6, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting DonCutlass
we are about to fly!...
the market is showing us the Planet Parade (it is when the planets of the solar system form a perfect line from the 1st planet to the last).
and so do the world's monetary institutions. think about it...

this is what i think is going to happen (ideally!):
step1 - 3 regions eased their policies - China and Australia lowered interest rates (ir) and GB started a QE program (lets call it QEE (E for England))
step2 - ECB lowered ir and now is about to start a QE (which we'll call QE-EU (for European Union)). [u]I...

one thing is for sure is that you called the bull market correctly from back in late July so you for sure got that right. I have read your arguments and appreciate you posting your thoughts.

I also agree that we are setting up for some kind of crisis again like 2008. i mean the Dow is now at a height that considering the worlds debt situation is tough to accept.

The part i do not have is the actual date when this thing comes down to reality. That reality is that there is no quick fix to this and years of sluggish growth at best are ahead.
Money never sleeps...
  • #18
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:04am Sep 14, 2012 1:04am
well... there you go. here's Benny and the Parade is on its way - the ultimate bull run...


and the Last Euphoria......
  • #19
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:21am Sep 14, 2012 1:21am
Good morning,

well done Don! Running nearly straight upwards since 900 pips on E/U, i think we can call this a nice bull scenario.

As long as they are pumping money into the virtual market, we will have such moves... poor, that reality and market will be pretty different.


Regards

Chriss
  • #20
  • Last Post: Sep 14, 2012 1:43am Sep 14, 2012 1:43am
Morning! and thanks)

indeed. the realities and the markets will differ plenty. the "war of QEs" has begun. the more they deepen EU into expensive currency (euro) the faster it will come down...

taking the situation i'm thinking the 1st Q of 2013 should be about right for a total collapse. unless there is a war with Iran (which i believe will start shortly after the elections)...

anyhow, the oil prices will kill the economy before we know it... i'd say half a year at best...
0 traders viewing now