Starting with $50

Well, I just checked my account before going to bed and somehow a monster candle shot up and triggered my EURUSD trade. I didn't think that was gonna happen until Benny was talking in the morning...I was wrong. Not what I wanted.

So I closed the trade for 9 pips because the Stochastics were all turning down and will now set a trade...(fast forward 10 minutes later)I just did a market order and gained a few pippa la dippila's.

Enough of the shenanigans for tonight. I will stick with my USDCHF trade so if Bernanke says something good that trade should trigger going long.

Just for fun, here's the 1 hour chart for the EURUSD as of a few minutes ago...and now I'm gone to bed

I am not trying to justify my actions with this post but telling where my head was when I did what I did so later, when I come back and read this diary, I can see the good and the bad.

My primary trade last night was based on bullish market sentiment for the EURUSD pair. Anytime Bernanke is due to speak, the markets get agitated. When he speaks, the markets usually react within minutes as they digest his words. Those are usually times of big movements which I have been on the both sides of the trade in the past.

Last night before I went to bed I decided to check the chart because I was anticipating a move upwards based on where the pair was trading, just below the Pivot point and at the 38.2% Fib level. I figured it would drop down to the 23.6% Fib level and back up again and kind of consolidate there near the Pivot point. This was based on the 4 hour Stochastics, both of them because they were going in opposite directions.

Evidently at the London open, the bulls came out of the gate jumping 36 pips in one hour. And of course, triggering my entry at the 61.8% Fib level...that's quite a jump.

My eyes were rolling in my head because I was so tired and then all of that happened. I figured it was just enough to trigger the trade and retreat, which it was doing, wiping out my profits. So I exited the trade...then thought about and did something I never do...bought at market and jumped on the momo train for a quick ride. Still came out profitable but it exploited 2 weaknesses of which I will be concentrating on one next week. And I will think about this all weekend, round and round in my head it will go...

I will sink or swim by this discipline next week:

When I make a trade next week, the computer will be turned off just after I post it here in the journal. This is gonna be just like jumping out of an airplane after I threw my parachute out first. I have to eliminate the second guessing and what if's.

This week the second guessing has cost me dearly. I had 2 big losses and one minor win when I should have one big loss, one minor win and one major win...and it's all my fault... ...so time to fix the problem...

Have a good weekend everyone

BTW, here's the 1 hour chart for reference so later on I can see what the heck I was talking about.

Short and sweet tonight. Pending Sell Stop

Entry = 1.25609 just below Pivot Point

Exit = 1.25138 at Support 1


Why?

4 hour chart: 21,5,5 Stochastics is rolling over in the overbought area, 5,3,3 has already done so and is nearing the 50 line...which it could easily bounce off and reverse.

1 hour chart: both Stochastics heading south. Price is consolidating at the Pivot point and 38.2% Fib level


This trade could go on longer than I like but nothing is propping this up right now other than Draghi speaking on Thursday. Until then it should tank.


That's it for me. I'm gonna try to make my weakness a strength and not second guess myself all night...

Just went into a tight range and stayed there. I canx the trade this morning.


Tonight is a little different:

5,3,3 Stochastics overbought on Weekly, Daily, 4 hour and 1 hour chart for tonight...tells me to short. Other indicators say just the opposite.


Too tired to mess with this tonight; up 18 hours on 3.5 hours sleep...passing on any trades tonight...need to be fresh in the morning as I am trading options.

Very interesting Journal, ocd. I was just browsing the Forum and started reading your posts. Good luck and I'll be sure to keep up with your reports and charts!

Sharon

Thanks!

Good morning

Let's review last night


1. All the 5,3,3 Stochastics were in the overbought condition last night around 1 am mst. From a pure technical standing, I should not have questioned anything other than entry/exit points.

The problem is that this the market seems to be bullish in its sentiment. Moving averages (20 and 60) on daily, 4 and 1 hour time frames indicated bullish sentiment.

My decision making became clouded because of that. I thought that it could only amount to a slight pullback and then spring upwards...that's second guessing and guessing is NOT what I'm trying to do here.


2. When your eyes are rolling in your head because you are so sleepy, when your face is about to hit the calculator on the desk it's time to pass on trading and go to bed...and so I did.

very interesting, i realy like and respect what you are doing and i want to join you, it shows that anybody can trade forex, money is not that big of a deal, my advice to you is discipline and the ability to control greed, because when you start getting too many hits you feel invincible and you start making foolish mistakes, also learn the power of compound interest, most traders dont realy understand it.

First off, thank you Soros. I appreciate your advice because I have gotten extremely overconfident in the past and failed. I now try to trade without ego or pride.


Okay, so about tonight's trade. Sweet setup is happening for going long.

Daily chart: is consolidating with the 5,3,3 Stochastics looking like it's gonna bounce off its 50 level...the 21,5,5 is way overbought indicating either a reversal or continuation, I'm saying continuation.

4 hour chart: has been tanking but looks to be stabilizing at the 76%Fib level and Support1 level. 5,3,3 Stochastics is oversold and 21,5,5 is about to be oversold...both indicate bullish reversal coming.

1 hour chart: has been tanking obviously and is now forming a hammer but may stop tanking there at the 76% and Support 1 level (they are the same). 5,3,3 Stochastics recently bounced up and hit the 50 line but is now tanking and gonna be oversold soon. 21,5,5 is way oversold and is either gonna reverse or continue...I'm thinking reversal.

So, I put in a pending Buy Stop to go long for .02 lot size.

Entry = 1.25445 and exit = 1.26000

Entry is based on the 61.8% Fib level which is between the Pivot point and the Support 1. Exit is based on the 23.6% Fib level and the Resistance 1 (both being very, very close to each other)

This is a big jump in price but I think it happens as the Draghi expectations begin to rise...pure speculation on my part which could result in a stronger pullback...

good trade, but personaly i would put my entry near support which is at 1.24755, i personaly think that its gona go down before going up, so go as close to support as possible for a perfect entry.

Soros,

And you were correct! I wondered if it was gonna go down to the Support 2 area (1.24989) because of how the 4 hour chart looked, specifically the 21,5,5 Stochastics. It was still declining when I put the trade in and did get pretty close to that level. It still worked though and was significant.


Have a good day

Seemed to work out okay. The price had gone down to the extremes of the Fib levels. It was already trading around the 76% (Support 1) level so I thought that was too extreme. I had wondered if it was gonna go down to the Support 2 level which was the 93% Fib level, and it got close.

My trade was about a reversal and here's how the trade looked this morning when I woke up...btw, have a great day everyone

Great bro, now my suggestion to you is to take it easy and to go over your strategy again, your doing very well, dont get carried away and stick to the rules, dont try to sneak in extra pips now and then, that always backfires!

There's only one rule to break. When Stochastics are telling me to short but Draghi is gonna give the bulls what they want to hear, I have to become a bull.

Well, here we are again. The charts are screaming to go short but Draghi is gonna speak just hours after the boys in Jackson Hole give their analysis.

I predict Draghi will tell of doing "whatever it takes" to save the Euro, including generalized ways of addressing Spain and Italy. It will be some rah rah speech that will be a temporary fix that will hose generations...and the markets will be bullish.

Just so you/I know, I had put an order in to go short from 1.25900 (entry) to 1.25300 (exit) but then remembered the Draghi speech is tomorrow. Cancelled that order!

We are currently trading just under the Resistance 1 level. If we have a pullback, it will be a little one imo.

Pending Buy Stop

Entry = 1.26300...exit = 1.26900

Entry is just above the R1 level and exit is just under the R3 level. Stochastics determine a reversal or a continuation. Last night was a reversal but tonight should be a continuation.

I imagine my entry will get triggered prematurely as some boys are gonna be itching to run with the bulls!

today im all short on the US, I HAVE A SHORT ON USD/CAD AND USD/CHF, things are not currently going my way but im sure that all positions will hit a tp today, been holding usd/cad since yesterday, its not doing me justice thus far!!

goodluck bro!!

I imagine as I type this you are in positive territory and your trade was the correct one. Personally, I look forward to tonight's trade.

Have a good day

yeah bro, all my trades are green, im long on aud/usd, took the trade like 30mins ago, hoping that the bulls havent lost strength on this 1, it was on a downtrend but i think that we are witnesing a trend reversal, but it hasnt confirmed that yet, too early for that, but im predicting that the bulls will also dominate her tomorow

Interesting morning.

The markets did NOT remain bullish...I guess buying bonds is just not as exciting as Draghi telling the masses he will turn on the printing presses and dilute the Euro.

The market went with the technicals, not to the extremes I had anticipated before I realized Draghi would speak today, but they did follow the trade when price is overbought...it tanked after I went to bed.

I went to the bathroom this morning and checked the computer, saw that monster black candle and the Stochastics, turned it off and went back to bed. This was just the opposite of what my trade was.


Why did I not freak out and hit the panic button?


This is an important learning lesson...

When I woke up and checked the computer, the trade was obviously a bad trade in that it was going in the wrong direction. I looked at the Stochastics on both the 1 hour and the 4 hour charts.

The 1 hour chart 5,3,3 Stochastics was tanking and the 21,5,5 was near the 50 line...that's all bad if you're going long but I knew that it would reverse causing the price to appreciate.

Based on that, I knew I could get out at one of 3 options as it unfolded:

1. break even price at my entry

2. somewhere near my entry or just below it

3. just over my entry

One of these 3 options was gonna take place and so all I had to do was wait it out as the price increased (and the Stochastics reversed).

I was down 54 PIPS when I went to the bathroom this morning. I closed at 1.26302 for a .04 profit just by waiting for the Stochastics to increase.


Why am I happy with that? Because I didn't lose 54 PIPS, taking roughly an 11% loss...that is devastating to your account and, more importantly, to your head. That kind of loss can easily create a downward spiral in one's trading career making it a short trading career.


Look forward to tonight's trade!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!