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Trend following system results

  • #21
  • Aug 31, 2012 11:01am Aug 31, 2012 11:01am
Hello HB
I will follow this with interest. Having read your blog I want to read and understand about Donchian Channels. I have just requested the CD that Courtney Smith has on his site.
Also just want to say thanks for sharing so much of your research into forex.
  • #22
  • Aug 31, 2012 5:37pm Aug 31, 2012 5:37pm
Quoting digf
Hello HB
I will follow this with interest. Having read your blog I want to read and understand about Donchian Channels. I have just requested the CD that Courtney Smith has on his site.
Also just want to say thanks for sharing so much of your research into forex.
Hi digf, there is loads of information about Donchian channels on the internet, not all of it useful but Courtney Smith is a good bloke. If you need any help let me know.
  • #23
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:07pm Sep 2, 2012 12:07pm
Wow this account is doing very good! 18% in 30 days!! Hopefully it will reach 100% by the end of the year

Nice blog your got there Hugh. Just read all the posts.

Would like to know more about Donchian Channel can you suggest any good books or good material on the net?

Thanks.
  • #24
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:18pm Sep 2, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting taw
Wow this account is doing very good! 18% in 30 days!! Hopefully it will reach 100% by the end of the year

Nice blog your got there Hugh. Just read all the posts.

Would like to know more about Donchian Channel can you suggest any good books or good material on the net?

Thanks.
Hi, yes, the account is doing very well at the moment but the trades could all turn around yet. As I said above there is a lot of information on the internet about Donchian channel trading. The book by Courtney Smith is pretty good although I don't use all of his ideas.
  • #25
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:26pm Sep 2, 2012 12:26pm
Congratulations for your thread.

It's possible you put some charts.

Thanks.
  • #26
  • Sep 2, 2012 3:08pm Sep 2, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting ineed300pips
Congratulations for your thread.

It's possible you put some charts.

Thanks.
Here are the current charts as of 02 09 12.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 02 09 12.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 02 09 12.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 02 09 12.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: silver 02 09 12.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: oil 02 09 12.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500 02 09 12.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #27
  • Sep 3, 2012 12:45pm Sep 3, 2012 12:45pm
HB, I follow your threads with interest...are you planning to disclose parameters for this technique?
  • #28
  • Sep 3, 2012 1:05pm Sep 3, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting driven18
HB, I follow your threads with interest...are you planning to disclose parameters for this technique?
Not just yet, I spent hours and hours getting this right and I'm not inclined to give it all away just yet but possibly in time.
  • #29
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:35pm Sep 3, 2012 3:35pm
Hi, I am using a similar system as yours. I keep a journal here. I got the Idea also from Courtney Smith's book. I am curious how you decide your initial stops and how you manage your trailing stop? You use the smaller channel or something else?

Also and most importantly you take every signal that comes your way or you use some other info outside the chart? I feel this is the missing piece from my own method and I would like to know how other trend followers do it.
  • #30
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:57pm Sep 3, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting KMidas
Hi, I am using a similar system as yours. I keep a journal here. I got the Idea also from Courtney Smith's book. I am curious how you decide your initial stops and how you manage your trailing stop? You use the smaller channel or something else?

Also and most importantly you take every signal that comes your way or you use some other info outside the chart? I feel this is the missing piece from my own method and I would like to know how other trend followers do it.
Hello. I've seen your journal and really impressed with the demo trading, not so much with the live though

I decided which pairs/instruments I would trade and the stop loss and trailing parameters through hours and hours of backtesting. I actually paid to have a coder code an expert advisor for me to trade this exactly to the rules.

I always take every trade that comes my way because it is almost impossible to predict what will happen next. Even with the best fundamental and technical analysis it's still very hard to pick a direction. I like Donchian channel trading because it is just not necessary to worry about any of that, you just take every signal and some will give losses, some will give break evens or small losses and some will give good gains.

It is worth mentioning though that my method is to add on after precise criteria are met. This makes a profitable system even nicer. The best thing you can do is find a method to add on aggressively and trail your stops effectively. I am currently using the 55 dc for the entry and the 20 for the exit but I wait for a close either side of the channel to confirm.

The stop is when the price closes the wrong side of the 20 dc but I also trail the stop by a certain amount behind the dc as well to avoid large losses in the more volatile instruments.

So far I am very happy with the results. Managed to stay well out of the kokkino for now.
  • #31
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:05pm Sep 3, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Hello. I've seen your journal and really impressed with the demo trading, not so much with the live though

I decided which pairs/instruments I would trade and the stop loss and trailing parameters through hours and hours of backtesting. I actually paid to have a coder code an expert advisor for me to trade this exactly to the rules.

I always take every trade that comes my way because it is almost impossible to predict what will happen next. Even with the best fundamental and technical analysis it's still very hard to pick a direction....
Wow, thanks for my very first vouch.

The bad results on my live account are from my bad judgment of people that I left to manage it. Now I copy my own signals but started right before the big draw down.

I started my trend following path trying to use discretion on the signals that I take. Saw many great trades pass and came at the same conclusion as you. Price can't be predicted, only followed. But I wonder if parallel and inverse analysis or currency strength analysis can improve the odds of picking good trades thus reducing the draw down.
  • #32
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:15am Sep 4, 2012 1:15am
Quoting KMidas
Wow, thanks for my very first vouch.

The bad results on my live account are from my bad judgment of people that I left to manage it. Now I copy my own signals but started right before the big draw down.

I started my trend following path trying to use discretion on the signals that I take. Saw many great trades pass and came at the same conclusion as you. Price can't be predicted, only followed. But I wonder if parallel and inverse analysis or currency strength analysis can improve the odds of picking good trades thus reducing the draw down....
At the moment I don't believe there is any benefit to using discretion with this type of system. I notice you are using some pairs in your trading that I have found to not be as profitable as others. Perhaps you need to do a little more backtesting to find the best pairs to trade?
  • #33
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:05pm Sep 4, 2012 3:05pm
Oil pulling back more strongly than the others. Getting close to the lower channel, maybe will stop out in the next few days? S and p 500 touched the lower channel today too and yet has snapped straight back up. Interesting to watch. I've been in these two trades nearly a month now. Euraud approaching the upper 55 channel but maybe it will consolidate a bit first before it breaks out upwards?
  • #34
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:17pm Sep 4, 2012 5:17pm
Hi Edward,
I'm following the gold & silver very closely as I'm thinking of taking them on along with the forex (I'm a cynic when it comes to oil & indices so I'm not too concerned with them at the moment). I'm just wondering were you considering adding to the gold & silver positions? I completely understand if you're not prepared to divulge your conditions for adding to a position at this stage. I'm just interested as I'm currently working on my conditions for adding to a position & I can see that the trend is strengthening well & there was new upward move after a retracement on Friday which held the price over certain trendlines.
Cheers,
Colm
  • #35
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:43pm Sep 4, 2012 5:43pm
Quoting Sober_Colm
Hi Edward,
I'm following the gold & silver very closely as I'm thinking of taking them on along with the forex (I'm a cynic when it comes to oil & indices so I'm not too concerned with them at the moment). I'm just wondering were you considering adding to the gold & silver positions? I completely understand if you're not prepared to divulge your conditions for adding to a position at this stage. I'm just interested as I'm currently working on my conditions for adding to a position & I can see that the trend is strengthening well & there was new...
Hello. Oil and s and p 500 are two of the most profitable instruments in my back testing so you might want to reconsider.

I don't add on to gold and silver as in back testing this did not improve the profitability.

I add on to euraud, audusd, oil and s and p 500. I am happy to tell you that the criteria for the add ons is simply when the 55 donch channel is broken again after being flat for a set number of days.
  • #36
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:08pm Sep 4, 2012 6:08pm
Cheers Edward, it's much appreciated. I'll definitely take a look at the dc to see how that works vs what I was considering as an add on strategy. I'll backtest S&P & oil too so which'll probably confine me to the sidelines for an extra 6 months but better safe than sorry. Thanks for the info & especially the charts from the other day.
Thanks again,
Colm
  • #37
  • Sep 5, 2012 12:57am Sep 5, 2012 12:57am
Quoting Sober_Colm
Cheers Edward, it's much appreciated. I'll definitely take a look at the dc to see how that works vs what I was considering as an add on strategy. I'll backtest S&P & oil too so which'll probably confine me to the sidelines for an extra 6 months but better safe than sorry. Thanks for the info & especially the charts from the other day.
Thanks again,
Colm
No problem, glad to help.
  • #38
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:24am Sep 5, 2012 7:24am
Looks like euraud could be opening tonight. After such a strong move already you would possibly not want to enter here but I will stick to the system and see what happens.
  • #39
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:29pm Sep 5, 2012 4:29pm
I would like everyone who reads this to watch this video from start to finish and then think really hard about their trading goals.


Inserted Video
  • #40
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:31pm Sep 5, 2012 7:31pm
Euraud opened and everything else holding more or less steady.
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