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  • #61
  • Sep 3, 2012 10:54am Sep 3, 2012 10:54am
Quoting diceman555
i like your charts and the way you look at the possibilities,

any thoughts on cable,after the friday releases,the fact the previous high wasnt breached suggests a possible short side,we have price support at 15778,previous months highs,.

for me a close above 15908 buy

below 15778 sell,

that leaves a 130 pip range should we stagnate waiting a trigger either way
Cable has been pretty choppy for the past several months. However, the big market players has been strongly supporting cable despite all the negative economic data. Looking at the daily chart, i see that cable is supremely supported at 1.5300. This suggest to me that the big players do not want cable to go down below 1.5300. If they do not want it to go down, then i am going to follow them by going long.

I am thinking the new range may be 1.5800-1.6300?? As the market had not traded between 1.5800-1.6300 for a long time now. There are plenty of empty spaces in this new range. Lots of spaces for the bulls and bears to battle it out here.

What do you think?
  • #62
  • Sep 3, 2012 10:59am Sep 3, 2012 10:59am
Quoting dab
Very interesting theory on order flow analysis. I certainly think it has some merit but suspect it too early to be conclusive without knowing what else was happening around those times and without looking for similar patterns in other pairs. Unfortunately as I only trade AUDUSD and am only a part time trader I hope you don't mind if I leave it to you to investigate and present on others pairs, I can do it but it would be a while before I get the time.

Currency pairs are like individual persons, each with their own unique quirks and personalities. The order flow analysis i presented for AUDUSD is pretty convincing, as the data goes back to apr 2011. And possibly even further more (i have to check on that though). AUDUSD according to the evidence almost always turns at month-start or month-end. With this knowledge, it will help us to time our buy or sell to the exact day.

I am looking at other pairs with similar characteristics. But i am unable to find any correlations as of yet.
  • #63
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:32am Sep 4, 2012 12:32am
Quoting ForexMGames
Cable has been pretty choppy for the past several months. However, the big market players has been strongly supporting cable despite all the negative economic data. Looking at the daily chart, i see that cable is supremely supported at 1.5300. This suggest to me that the big players do not want cable to go down below 1.5300. If they do not want it to go down, then i am going to follow them by going long.

I am thinking the new range may be 1.5800-1.6300?? As the market had not traded between 1.5800-1.6300 for a long time now. There are plenty of...
hi forex m,

im more intraday than yourself,but my viewpoint is whilst last 2 months candle at 15780,remain in tact,my bias is long,16150 is my next level of interest should we break up above 15908 area.havnt looked much behond those initial targets.these 2 levels are were my eyes are !
  • #64
  • Sep 5, 2012 1:11am Sep 5, 2012 1:11am
Quoting diceman555
hi forex m,

im more intraday than yourself,but my viewpoint is whilst last 2 months candle at 15780,remain in tact,my bias is long,16150 is my next level of interest should we break up above 15908 area.havnt looked much behond those initial targets.these 2 levels are were my eyes are !
There seems to be a top at 1.5900 for time being. The current trend is bullish, but it a kind of choppy uptrend. Yes, if we break and stay above 1.5900, we will see a bullish continuation of the up trend.
  • #65
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:19pm Sep 5, 2012 11:19pm
Quoting diceman555
hi forex m,

im more intraday than yourself,but my viewpoint is whilst last 2 months candle at 15780,remain in tact,my bias is long,16150 is my next level of interest should we break up above 15908 area.havnt looked much behond those initial targets.these 2 levels are were my eyes are !
Yes i think the trend for now is up. It is not breaking down. 1.5900 seems to be stable support now.
  • #66
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:21am Sep 6, 2012 3:21am
http://i45.tinypic.com/1zyhcj.jpg

This is getting more and more interesting. It is almost like the final episode of a long running soap opera. This week (6th Sept ECB bond buying program unveiled) and maybe next week (12th Sept German court ruling) are the crucial junctures. What prevails over these 2 weeks will determine the ultimate winner.

What am i talking about? I am referring to the king of forex, Mr EURUSD. The daily chart is now at the critical crossroad. For we are at point 4 of a prolonged down trend line. More than 365 days worth of down trend line, to be exact.

http://i50.tinypic.com/nvs5mr.png

All right, ladies and gentlemen. Lay your bets. If you want to go big, this is it. This is the once-in-a-year event. This is what you have been waiting for. If you catch the correct direction, you are rewarded handsomely on your golden path to riches. But when you don't, then ........
  • #67
  • Sep 8, 2012 9:12am Sep 8, 2012 9:12am
What a week it is for the EUR bulls!!

Wednesday. The bond buying program was leaked to the markets, which was the reason for the sudden bullish rise. I was short on Wednesday, but luckily got out with some profits.

Thursday. ECB press conference. Markets initial reaction was a bearish 80pips drop, followed by a dramatic 80pips bullish recovery 2 hours later.

Friday. A +175pips bullish upmove in 1 day. It is been a loooonnggg time since we have witness such strength in a single day. I presume the august summer holidays for the European and American traders are over?? I am not sure, as i am from Asia and there are no summer holidays here. We are definitely in for more volatility soon. And the market is ready to trend big from this month onwards until early December.

http://i50.tinypic.com/1exkdf.png
  • #68
  • Sep 8, 2012 9:21am Sep 8, 2012 9:21am
My trading results for GBPUSD was less ideal than EURUSD. However, i got out with small to slightly moderate losses.

The key to maintaining small losses is to discipline oneself to keep stop losses small. If there is a holy grail to trading, i guess this is the golden rule. Get out with a small loss and try again later. Good that my small losses here are covered by the huge win in EURUSD.

http://i46.tinypic.com/n6weur.png
  • #69
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:44am Sep 9, 2012 8:44am
http://i45.tinypic.com/1jqo1x.jpg

After last week's decisive bullish breakout, EURO seems to be on a bullish train. I am expecting EURUSD to do a possible re-test of the pivotal zone 1.2620-50. If price do touch 1.2620-50, it is a good area to place your long positions.

If strong demand is present at 1.2620-50, price should target the next resistance zone of 1.3000. This is a trade which i like to take. Low risk of 30-50pips, and high reward of 200-300pips.

Long near 1.2620-50
Stop loss below 1.2600
Final target profit 1.2980-1.3000

http://i49.tinypic.com/29bn42x.png
  • #70
  • Sep 10, 2012 9:04am Sep 10, 2012 9:04am
http://i46.tinypic.com/28iw1hs.jpg

Similar to EURUSD, GBPUSD is also confined within the rising channel. Furthermore, there is a whole new large 500pips price area for the market makers to play within. I dubbed it as "the new playground."

http://i47.tinypic.com/jkysus.png

The new playground is from 1.5800-1.6300. Why is this a new playground?
•There is plenty of white empty spaces between 1.5800-1.6300.
•Prices has not been seen in this area for a long time.
•Like water, prices follow the path of least resistance. And the path is between 1.5800-1.6300.
•Market makers may want to fight it out here and establish their new supports and resistances within this zone.

As long as price remains within the rising channel, we should expect a re-test of 1.6300.

http://i48.tinypic.com/28tiats.png
  • #71
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:30pm Sep 11, 2012 9:30pm
Spotted a good opportunity to place a long AUDUSD trade. If AUDUSD touches and holds onto the 3rd point of the rising channel, look to go long.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2j2xkd5.png
  • #72
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:24am Sep 14, 2012 11:24am
I gave a live call to short EURUSD on Friday. Click on link. This trade turns out to be a loss. EURUSD slices through this resistance zone like a sashimi knife. The bulls are firmly in control this week after Wednesday German court approval on ECB bond buying and Thursday FED QE3.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...rt-eurusd.html

However, there is one important rule i wish to share. When this trade went wrong, i got out with a small loss of -35pips. I am immune to tiny losses. Tiny losses do not bother me anymore.

In the beginning of my trading career, i would not acknowledge my losses. I would not cut my losses. I would wail, cry, pray, play pretend for my losses to magically disappear. I remember this rule. The only way for any losses to disappear is to use your stop losses. The only way for any losses to be gone is to cut it when it is wrong.

Trading is a mind game. Train your mind to accept small losses.

http://i50.tinypic.com/307mcly.png
  • #73
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:56am Sep 14, 2012 11:56am
Successful trader's motto: Let your profits run, cut your losses small.

In week 37 review part 1 on EURUSD, i posted on why it is vital to your trading account to keep losses small. In this post, i am sharing why it is equally vital to your trading account to let profits run.

On Wednesday 12th Sept, i gave another live call to long AUDUSD when it touches the 3rd point to form the rising channel. See link.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ng-audusd.html

This trade turns out to be a correct trade. It collected more than +100 green pips. See point 3 on the rising channel.

http://i49.tinypic.com/2nqzfqu.png

On hindsight, i could have let my profitable long trades on 07th Sept to continue running. But hindsight is 20/20. I cannot trade on hindsight. Successful traders trade with foresight. Now, i have a new mind game to learn. I have to train my mind to let my profits run even further! Trading is a mind game.
  • #74
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:56pm Sep 15, 2012 9:56pm
In my previous preview on USDJPY, i mention of the possibility of Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervening the Yen FX markets. See link below.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ws-part-1.html

Thus far, nothing has happened yet. However, i believe the intervention is near. Remember that Central Bankers has political pressure to maintain the stability of their country's currency. Japan is a mainly export country. Think Sony, Toyota, Toshiba and Honda. Japan is a country which relies strongly on their exports, they would prefer to keep their currency weak. When the Yen strengthen too much, high-ranking government officials will voice their displeasures through the media. It is them telling the currency speculators to get out of my turf.

http://i49.tinypic.com/zwj31h.png

When the same rhetoric such as:
"Watch out and get out of the way!! I am going to do something soon!!"

is repeated multiple times by the Japanese officials, the market is fore-warned. We are the retail traders. We do not have the financial muscles to go against the markets. In the forex ocean, we are the shrimps, and we follow the whales. If BOJ does intervene, watch for a 200-300pips USDJPY bullish spike in a single day.

http://i47.tinypic.com/30bk554.png

Potential intervention zone around 75.50-77.00. How to trade this intervention? Open a sub-account. Transfer a small amount of money to this sub-account. Highly important: you may need to hold this trade for weeks. So do ensure you have enough money in the sub-account to meet the weekend margin requirements.

Place a limit buy order anywhere from 75.50-77.00
Stop loss below 75.00
Target profit 80.00

http://i46.tinypic.com/vj61x.png
  • #75
  • Sep 16, 2012 10:13am Sep 16, 2012 10:13am
In the previous week's trade preview on GBPUSD, i already mention the possibility of GBPUSD re-testing the resistance zone of 1.6300. See link below.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ws-part-2.html

The high for last week was set on Friday at 1.6250, about 50pips from the mentioned 1.6300 resistance zone. How was i able to call it in advance where GBPUSD is going to go? It took me about 3 years to learn this skill. I am not 100% accurate. But i am slowly improving. Trading is about understanding where price wants to go.

Let me illustrate. Imagine i have 3 children. After observing my 3 children for many years, i can make a rather excellent educated guess to how each of my 3 children will behave in certain situations. Lets say i bring to them to a zoo and the children saw a snake. Based on my past observations and my understanding of the temperament of each child, i know how each one will react to the snake. Child A got bitten by a snake before, and he will run away from one. Child B is more adventurous, he is not afraid of snakes and will stroke it. Child C is more cautious, he will hide behind my legs until he is sure the snake is friendly before touching it.

Now imagine Child A is EURUSD. Child B is GBPUSD. Child C is AUDUSD. After watching their behaviors and movements for many years, i had develop an intuitive feel for what they are going to do and where they are going to go. Train your mind to discern the movements of each currency pair you like to trade. For me, USDCAD is sort of a wild child. I have little success predicting its movements. As such, i tend to stay away from trading USDCAD.

The idea is this. Find currency pairs which you can predict the movements with reasonable ease and accuracy. And avoid those pairs where you just cannot make heads and tails of.

http://i50.tinypic.com/1zfrm8w.png

Short GBPUSD near 1.6300-30
Stop loss above 1.6350
First target profit 1.6000
  • #76
  • Sep 21, 2012 11:29am Sep 21, 2012 11:29am
Here is the partial results of the live trading call which i gave on thursday on USDCAD. This trade is still open.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...rt-usdcad.html

Reasons for taking this trade?
•Previous swing low 0.9800-20 on the daily chart on 30th April 2012.
•0.9800-20 should act as resistane level once USDCAD crosses below it.
•Any rebound up to re-test 0.9800-20 should be a good signal to go short.

http://i47.tinypic.com/25805r8.png

I took partial profits and brought my stop loss to breakeven. Hope to let it run and hit my target profit price.

http://i45.tinypic.com/33jmusx.png
  • #77
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:10pm Sep 21, 2012 12:10pm
This post is becoming like a soap opera or drama serial. I have been posting continuously on GBPUSD for past several weeks. Before reading the rest of this post, click on link below to get a re-cap on GBPUSD.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ws-part-2.html

In the link above, I shared that a good potential place to short GBPUSD would be around 1.6300-30. This week GBPUSD tried to push above 1.6300, but it found heavy resistance. Unfortunately, i entered my short order at 1.6315 and order was not filled.

http://i45.tinypic.com/qx2c20.png

For those who have shorted at 1.6300, you would have made about +70pips. With minimal risk as the highest GBPUSD went was 1.6310.

http://i46.tinypic.com/2u8z15c.png
  • #78
  • Sep 27, 2012 7:42am Sep 27, 2012 7:42am
The euphoria on ECB bond buying and FED QE3 has faded after peaking at 1.3170. EURUSD is currently in a retracement mode.

On the daily chart, the momentum is to the upside.
•Price broken above the long term bearish channel
•A bullish reversal pattern is seen. There is an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

http://i48.tinypic.com/2mwuy3k.png

On the 4hr chart, a flag formation has formed. With the price doing a retracement since the high of 1.3170.

http://i49.tinypic.com/oii44x.png

Based on the available information, i am looking to go long at either the 38.2% or 50.0% fibonacci retracement level.

Long near 1.2740 (38.2%)

If 38.2% fails to hold, re-enter at the 50.0% retracement level.

Long near 1.2600 (50.0% retracement.)
  • #79
  • Sep 27, 2012 4:08pm Sep 27, 2012 4:08pm
Forex games: I like your charts they are clean and without all the confusion that comes from other charts. I just wanted to thank you for that..
My the pips be with you my friend...
  • #80
  • Sep 27, 2012 10:27pm Sep 27, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting AZpips
Forex games: I like your charts they are clean and without all the confusion that comes from other charts. I just wanted to thank you for that..
My the pips be with you my friend...
Thanks. I prefer clean white charts, as they are the easiest to see. May the pips be with you too!
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