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Is August the most difficult trading month?

  • #41
  • Aug 31, 2012 1:44pm Aug 31, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting akukaya
August 2012 is with good results : +28% plus another 29% in affiliate
Roziah,
bagaimana anda boleh mewujudkan carta graf?i suka bagaimana maklumat ini disampaikan.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #42
  • Aug 31, 2012 1:50pm Aug 31, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting mmaker
Not sure if further backtesting will help. Market changes over time and what worked before may not work next time. Look at this guy's results. He had a string of winners until the market changed in August:
http://www.forexfactory.com/robertj62#79-list
He's struggling to keep the clean record. August seems to have damaged alot of people.
http://www.forexfactory.com/robertj62#79-list
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #43
  • Edited 2:32pm Aug 31, 2012 2:16pm | Edited 2:32pm
To me it's like any other business. Stores that operate in locations that are high tourist areas have very busy periods and slower periods. But, there is still money to be made in both, if the store owner can adapt to the crowd by his selection of merchandise and marketing for the season at hand. If the store owner expects to make the same kind of money year-round in the same manner, then it will be a difficult business for him because of what he/she expects.

In Summer, the volume and market movements may be less in FX, but the market is still moving. Just take what it gives. If you or your system is too rigid that it won't allow for these dynamic changes, you'll find things difficult. Ask yourself: "What is it about August that I think makes it harder for me?"

Though the market may seem to be on vacation, the active trader never can be. Learn to flow with life; trading is about life. My 2 cents.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #44
  • Aug 31, 2012 2:31pm Aug 31, 2012 2:31pm
I think we / I should do as others: just go in Holliday in August and Xmas.
Traders doesn't worth 1.5-2 month break at Xmas + new year and August?
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #45
  • Aug 31, 2012 2:33pm Aug 31, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting matheszabi
I think we / I should do as others: just go in Holliday in August and Xmas.
Traders doesn't worth 1.5-2 month break at Xmas + new year and August?
Why not? Or, just trade on the days when there is major news scheduled as it would attract more traders...even during the holidays.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #46
  • Sep 1, 2012 4:51am Sep 1, 2012 4:51am
I will say it again it's the way you adapt to the market. You can have short term trades to make up for any long term losses and keep you profitable. Use these ranges to your advantage. Trade off resistance and support levels as risk of breakout is small with low volume..
For example check out the attached chart to see some of the trades I did last week ...

Good Luck
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  • #47
  • Sep 1, 2012 6:01am Sep 1, 2012 6:01am
Quoting shahroor
I will say it again it's the way you adapt to the market. You can have short term trades to make up for any long term losses and keep you profitable. Use these ranges to your advantage. Trade off resistance and support levels as risk of breakout is small with low volume..
For example check out the attached chart to see some of the trades I did last week ...
Good Luck
Can you continue your thread journal? Would love to learn from you.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=286177&page=3
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #48
  • Sep 1, 2012 6:20am Sep 1, 2012 6:20am
Quoting mmaker
Can you continue your thread journal? Would love to learn from you.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=286177&page=3
appreciate your comments, the reason I am reluctant to continue a public journal is my worry it could affect my trading. The biggest factor in this game as you know is psychology and keeping this journal might lead to unwanted comments that could distract me and make me deviate from my trading plan. However I do a short reflection on my trading every week on myfxbook which I might copy to forexfactory ..

Nice weekend to all
  • #49
  • Sep 1, 2012 5:45pm Sep 1, 2012 5:45pm
I didn't know that you could do Journal/Blog posts on MyFXBook.
  • #50
  • Sep 1, 2012 9:50pm Sep 1, 2012 9:50pm
usually the 2nd half of august is good as ppl come back from vacation, but the macro events coming over the next month has dried up volume big time.

i wouldn't be surprised to see some spikey price fluctuations, basically mini NFP moves for days at a time during sept.
  • #51
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:59am Sep 2, 2012 12:59am
August is dominated by range trading and shenanigans... Kind of an annoying month to trade really... A lot of the summer is if you prefer at least "some" trending.

Half the markets are dead... Only reason I am trading Forex is because there is at least "something" going on in this market... Unlike stock futures and indice options! LoL...
  • #52
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:22am Sep 6, 2012 3:22am
Anyone know of any highly profitable trader in this forum with a running Trade Explorer? I would like to study how he/she trades.

I've been following this guy for a while when he was doing so well earlier,
http://www.forexfactory.com/robertj62#79-list

There are many 5-stars threads and 10+ vouchers members, but I'm still looking for a profitable trader's Trade Explorer to learn from.
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No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #53
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:01am Sep 6, 2012 8:01am
How would you learn how to trade better just by looking at their entry/exit points? You have no idea how they define either. They could be using any combination of indicators, any number of different price action methods, or a combination of the two. Such a situation creates an infinite number of possible combinations which combine to work as a "trigger" signal to put a trade on and or "trigger" to get out.

It's not possible to learn how to trade like someone else unless they supply some type of information which allows you to peer inside their mind and see what type of logic is driving their decisions.
  • #54
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:28am Sep 6, 2012 9:28am
Quoting FXAssassin
How would you learn how to trade better just by looking at their entry/exit points? You have no idea how they define either. They could be using any combination of indicators, any number of different price action methods, or a combination of the two. Such a situation creates an infinite number of possible combinations which combine to work as a "trigger" signal to put a trade on and or "trigger" to get out.

It's not possible to learn how to trade like someone else unless they supply some type of information which allows you to peer inside...
How well do you trade? Do you make money trading? Any results to share? Or only "advices" and "critiques"?
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #55
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:41am Sep 6, 2012 10:41am
Quoting mmaker
How well do you trade? Do you make money trading? Any results to share? Or only "advices" and "critiques"?
I agree with FXAssassin on that one. It is pretty much useless to look at someone's entries and exits to get an idea of what they are doing. The most important point is that you dont know what timeframe they base their analysis on. For example, on the weekly the Euro/USD is in a downtrend, but anyone who trades daily and below would be looking long atm.

You need to know the method before you can learn from the entries.

If you want to just see entries and exits from currently profitable traders, look on Zulutrade.

Read this next part very carefully, because if you understand it, you'll realise how seeing the entries is not important.

I work in investment - twice a year we get a new bunch of traders starting out. These new recruits take exactly the same trades as the experienced guys, and 9/10 they make less money (or even lose more) than the old guard.
  • #56
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:45am Sep 6, 2012 10:45am
Quoting mmaker
How well do you trade? Do you make money trading? Any results to share? Or only "advices" and "critiques"?
I've discovered a method that works very well for me. I'm going to go live with it in a week or so. I've built websites for the past few years. Informational ones with google ads on them. I get paid if people show up and click the ads. Anyway...I'm selling some of them in order to fund my account, so that's all I'm waiting on.

Being that I have less than a year's track record, I guess I don't really have much to share. Those who have a proven track record of success would say that anyone who listens to me is an idiot because I've not proven myself. A full year of consistent success seems to be the standard by which people around here think qualifies one to be able to give out advice.

To be honest though, I have the utmost confidence that my method will work. It takes a lot of losses, but the wins make up for it. I've got a sample of over 3,000 trades in historical testing which show that the "true win rate" (#wins/#total trades with break even trades excluded) hovers just north or south of .40. The system takes profit at 2R or better.

If I were to give any tips, it would be to look for a system that targets a profit of 2R. The Naysayers will say that setting profit targets at multiples of your risk is silly because the # of times you hit your S/L before your T/P will negate any anticipated benefit. I've found that this only seems to apply to R-multiples higher than 2R. There are plenty of systems which give entry signals which will hit 2R enough times to make the system profitable. The trick is that these systems ALWAYS have a win rate less than 50%...so it FEELS like you are always loosing...even though you're not. Dealing with the psychology then is the #1 problem in working these systems as you have to have the mental toughness to basically say, "I feel like I'm always losing, but I'm going to charge forward anyway....I'm going to follow my system even if I plow this plane into the ground." You gotta trust your system that much.

The other tip I would give (and this is essential) is to use STAIRSTEP money management. Flat percentage MM methods (Like "never risk more than 1% of your account" or "2% risk per trade is the max any successful trader takes") are silly. To understand why, you need to read this article. Pay special attention to point #2: http://www.learntotradethemarket.com...truths-article

If you want an example of Stairstep Money Management, go to the "Symphony System" thread in the systems subforum and look at the Money Management layout in Post #1. That's an example of a stairstep system. I don't use that one, but I use something similar.
  • #57
  • Edited 11:04am Sep 6, 2012 10:53am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting FXAssassin
I'm going to go live with it in a week or so.
The reason I looked at Trade Explorer is to filter out people who hasn't really started trading live, but had alot to say about trading when they think they know, but don't. That's all there is. When I say "I want to learn ...." it's not exactly decoding the Trade Explorer line by line. I just wanted to see a real trader, rather than people who talks loud.
Quoting 4exNinja
I'm afraid I switched servers a week ago and was stupid enough to delete my historic results on my live account. My demo account is on Forexfactory, but I only use it to test various tweaks, so it looks hilarious (using various MAs as exit signals...) and doesn't contain as many trades.
I don't mean to imply that everyone who likes to give advice or criticize is like that, but very often, when challenged, these smart ass will admit they haven't traded live or unfortunately lost their historic results ...... nothing to show. But alot to say.


Quoting mmaker
Anyone know of any highly profitable trader in this forum with a running Trade Explorer?
I guess I will rephrase my post to ask if anyone know of a profitable running Trade Explorer. Without saying I want to study it, that might attract less smart asses.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #58
  • Sep 7, 2012 12:57pm Sep 7, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting kk007
Apart from the Xmas and New year time, is August the most difficult month to trade? Please tell me your view!
Hi kk007, did you start this thread because you were having the most difficult month in August? That is, everything that used to work, just didn't work day after day in August?
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #59
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:28pm Sep 7, 2012 1:28pm
It like most things majority say August and half the year is slow when in fact this period has been the most active recently just look at the euro today. Take info from all like a pinch of salt not bible.
Find your Favourite Pattern
  • #60
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:10pm Sep 7, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting Pipanator
It like most things majority say August and half the year is slow when in fact this period has been the most active recently just look at the euro today. Take info from all like a pinch of salt not bible.
Check your calendar. It is September now. The summer doldrums from Memorial Day to Labor Day is over.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
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