Heads and Tails "Experiment": will it work?

Hello Everyone!


Let me introduce myself......I am Pipaholic....my real name is Dimitri....
I have been trading for 20 years now professionally.....I have traded initially for some prop shops after I moved over to banks.....and now I am trading for no one else but myself.
All this time I wanted to go ahead to do this experiment cause I think it could work quit good if "WE" find the right money management rules.
From my experience I believe that the most important part of a successful system is the money management you apply to it.......so I am going ahead with this journal and we will see "how" important it is.....It is an experiment like I said.

What really made me go ahead and open this thread was that last week one of my PRO buddies lost $100.000 on a NZDUSD trade(don't worry ,the guy has millions)......that me and my other PRO trader freind thought he was crazy and we both agreed that he gambled on this trade......yes like heads and tails type of gamble....so this idea that I had for a long time in my head I said to myself it is time I test it just for the fun of it.....

I am doing this just so for the fun of it so we can see how far we can go....so please all "ROCKET SCIENTISTS" that don't like it can move on to the next super system...

(Of course this is not to take these signals for live trading and if you do and lose your money it is your total idiotic fault, I take no responsibility)

SO HERE WE GO

I am going to use a Daily charts and I will trade 2 pairs the EUR/USD and the EUR/GBP. Now I know that some of you may say that these 2 pairs are somewhat correlated but "part" of trading is luck so we might get a long signal on one and a short on the other....this way they will be also hedged in a way...with a 50/50 chance so it all will come down to the volatility and MM.

To select the direction I am going to use an app I have on my android phone that spins head and tails, of course I would use an actual coin if I did not have that (but I like the coin flipping effect)
The chances here are 50/50 so it all will come down to money management.

For my MM I will use the ATR and an EA called Update stops. I am going to set the ATR at 14 and take that value as my SL and my first TP......

I will set up the UPDATE STOPS EA like this:

EUR/USD ATR reads 79 (right mow)

TakeProfit 1 : 79
TakeProfit 2 : 158 (double first TP)
TakeProfit 3 : 237 (3 times first TP)
TakeProfit 1 percent : 40
TakeProfit 2 percent : 30
TakeProfit 3 percent :100 (cause I want the full position to close)
HardStop : 79 (Same as 1st TP)
MoveStop: 79(So when it gets to 79 pips moves SL to BE to cap our risk)

If we are stopped out......we flip again and take a new position.....with the new ATR reading.

So lets go......I am going to start a fresh MT4 and post the 1st trades....

Pipaholic

Good idea. Will follow..

Ok here are the first trades, both SELLS.....

I used one of my mt4's from VertiFX that I already had cause I have so many and do not want to download another.

The balance on it is $74537.36(I will post a screen shot of the balance later).

Here they are:

Ok......EUR/USD got stopped out with a loss of -790.00.....did not think it would make it with that big bullish candle.......but then again I am not here to think of the entries .....only the MM.

The EUR/GBP pair is still alive......

Attachment

and here is the pic with the balance as promised........

Just flipped........it was heads.....so I go long on EUR/USD.....

OK.....lets see....E/G got stopped out....with a loss of -635.08

E/U is positive +319.00..........

Now I have to flip for the new position of E/G .......

it is .....HEADS.....so we go LONG EUR/GBP.....

So now we have a total of losses -1425.09
and a running live position of +319.00....

Attachment


Now common everyone do not get discouraged.....our goal is to

"FIND A WAY" to make this positive......not give up cause we are in negative!

We have to figure out a MM to make it work.....only the "HEADS AND TAILS" has to stay.....

I open this thread like I mentioned just "for the fun of it" so we can all brainstorm and play around, even if I don't really have the time cause apart from trading I run another business (that is the reason I do not post often)......but it looks like people also do not have the time in joking around with funny methods......so I am just going to post every week the results, modifications and improvements IF the account manages to survive .......like I said ....just for the fun of it.....

Love the idea and will follow. Just two (silly) questions,

How did you pick heads for longs and tails for shorts?
Did you filp for that as well?

I only ask because since the direction is pure 50/50 (luck), it would be interesting to see if flipping that would have any effect. Would be fun to track it over time and see how close to 50/50 the flip is.

In an effort to "find a MM rule", perhaps changing the risk (up or down as u prefer) every other flip would add a little dynamic data?...

Hope you can post more than once a week but if that's what times allows, so be it.

I've tried to trade this way some time ago on my demo, and I was slightly loosing (with tp/sl ratio 2:1). as the chance of heads/tails is 50/50 markets have more possibilities than 2. It can go your direction and turn around just before your T/P, so maybe it works but you need to work on exit moment

......well your head is higher than your tail.....no? so head is north(long) and tail is south (short)......
about posting more often....my initial though was to post every day, if there is an interest in the tread.....I will make time

What I am going to do Eur Usd is continue for 2-4 weeks to trade as is and after start modifying the MM......all help would be appreciated.... cause 10 brains is better than 1....usually....

That it is....didn't think of it that way...

Okkkkkk......lets see where we stand for the 3-4 first days of the experiment......

we where stopped out on the first orders on both of the pairs this week and now on the open orders(screenshot) we are in the minus, BUT.....IF the EUR turns north now that Merkhel gave some good news over the weekend.....we just might be in the right direction.....

there is some more space for a little pullback .....but lets see the open where market will take them.....

ok......at least we are in the right direction for the moment .....

weekly and monthly pivots are behind the price and are support.....

so lets see......

Now if you all noticed I added the weekly and monthly pivot on my recent charts......

Now the only thing we cannot touch is the way we pick the direction........but anything else that can effect the outcome we can....

like lets say that "if it was time to flip now" and tails would show....we can take a full position since LONG is above the pivots.....if it would show short we would take half a position(since the pivots are right under the position where the chances are that it would bounce).....

Ok........We are moving nicely and as we can see E/U did BOUCE nicely of the weekly pivot and came in our direction.......

For now the trades are positive .......and moving nicely......

Here is the chart of the E/U .......

E/G held strong ......that is a very nice indication that it wants to go north......

Hello everyone!!!

In this game you need patience.. ......as long as it is in the right direction .......we wait......

its doing its roller coaster moves...